The AFC South was shaping up to be one of the more entertaining divisional finishes last year, and while it still was, with the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars finishing one game apart, Daniel Jones’s injury kept it from being a three-way fight.

Last year, the Jags won the division at 13-4 with Houston trailing one game behind at 12-5. The Colts, who started 8-2 before Jones got hurt, finished the year 8-9, missing the playoffs. The Tennessee Titans were even further off at 3-14, but they’ve had a strong offseason and could pull off a few upsets.

The AFC South could be a very entertaining battle, but I do believe one team should win it pretty comfortably. I dove into each team’s schedule and tried to predict their records.

Jacksonville Jaguars

2025 Record: 13-4

AFC South Odds: +220

The Jags are looking to repeat as AFC South champions after a 13-win season in Liam Coen’s first year, and while they still have a very good team, a harder schedule and some losses this offseason could prevent them from going back-to-back.

This offseason, the Jags lost arguably their best defensive and offensive player to free agency. Devin Lloyd, who had five interceptions last season, signed with Carolina, while Travis Etienne, who had over 1,400 yards from scrimmage with 11 touchdowns, signed with New Orleans.

And the worst part is Jacksonville didn’t do much to replace them. They signed Chris Rodriguez to “fill” the hole at running back and didn’t bring in a single linebacker in free agency. Then, they had what was viewed by many as one of the worst drafts in the league, reaching on a ton of players.

This roster is still very good, but with a tougher schedule and some key losses, I just don’t see them winning 13 games again. I think they’re a borderline Wild Card team.

Record Prediction

vs Cleveland Browns – W

at Denver Broncos – W

vs New England Patriots – W

at Cincinnati Bengals – W

at Philadelphia Eagles – L

vs Houston Texans – W

vs Indianapolis Colts – W

at Baltimore Ravens – W

at Tennessee Titans – W

at New York Giants – W

vs Tennessee Titans – W

at Chicago Bears – W

vs Pittsburgh Steelers – L

at Houston Texans – L

at Dallas Cowboys – W

vs Washington Commanders – L

at Indianapolis Colts – L

Final Record: 11-6 (4-2)

Houston Texans

2025 Record: 12-5

AFC South Odds: +115

The Texans are my team this year. I’m planting my flag and putting my chips on DeMeco Ryans’s squad.

I still have concerns about C.J. Stroud, but I fully expect the Texans to have a much better offensive line and run game this season after adding guys like Braden Smith, Keylan Rutledge, Wyatt Teller, and David Montgomery. That should take some pressure off Stroud and allow him to play as he did as a rookie. And if he can play as he did as a rookie, this defense is easily good enough to go very far this season.

Last year, Houston had the best defense in football. They have an elite pass rush with Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, a great linebacking core with guys like Henry To’oTo’o and Azeez Al-Shaair, and a young secondary with All-Pro corner Derek Stingley and others.

The defense is going to do their part, so now it’s just up to the offense to step their game up and help them out. Even if they finish 1oth in scoring this year, they should be good enough to win the Super Bowl.

Record Prediction

vs Buffalo Bills – L

vs Cincinnati Bengals – W

at Indianapolis Colts – W

vs Dallas Cowboys – W

at Tennessee Titans – W

at Jacksonville Jaguars – L

vs New York Giants – W

at Los Angeles Chargers – W

at Cleveland Browns – W

vs Indianapolis Colts – W

vs Baltimore Ravens – W

at Pittsburgh Steelers – W

at Washington Commanders – W

vs Jacksonville Jaguars – W

at Philadelphia Eagles – W

at Green Bay Packers – W

vs Tennessee Titans – W

Final Record: 15-2 (5-1)

Indianapolis Colts

2025 Record: 8-9

AFC South Odds: +360

The Indianapolis Colts got off to an extremely hot start last year, largely thanks to Jonathan Taylor going off. They looked like one of the best teams in the league during the first half of the season, but I don’t see them replicating the same success as last year.

Their offense still has a strong offensive line and Jonathan Taylor, which can take them a long way, but we saw what happened at the end of last year when the pass game wasn’t really there – he got shut down. Do we really think Daniel Jones coming off an Achilles tear with only one real weapon – Alec Pierce – is going to be a whole lot better than Philip Rivers was? He’s going to be better, but I don’t see him playing as well as he did last year.

Defensively, Indy wasn’t very good last year. They finished 21st in scoring defense, but it didn’t really matter early on because their offense was blowing people out. And I don’t think their defense got much better this offseason. I like some of the additions they made, but this roster doesn’t scream top-10 defense to me.

The Colts will be an average team this year unless Daniel Jones’s is completely himself in Week 1. And nobody is ever completely themselves less than a year off an Achilles.

Record Prediction

vs Baltimore Ravens – L

at Kansas City Chiefs – L

vs Houston Texans – L

at Washington Commanders – L

at Pittsburgh Steelers – W

vs Tennessee Titans – W

at Minnesota Vikings – W

at Jacksonville Jaguars – L

vs Dallas Cowboys – L

vs Miami Dolphins – W

at Houston Texans – L

vs New York Giants – L

at Philadelphia Eagles – W

at Tennessee Titans – L

vs Cincinnati Bengals – L

at Cleveland Browns – W

vs Jacksonville Jaguars – W

Final Record: 7-10 (2-4)

Tennessee Titans

2025 Record: 3-14

AFC South Odds: +950

The Tennessee Titans were one of the worst teams in the league last year, but they brought in Robert Saleh to be their next head coach and made quite a few additions this offseason.

Offensively, the offensive line still has some question marks, but they got better at wide receiver, bringing in Carnell Tate and Wan’Dale Robinson. I just don’t know how good this run game is going to be without any major changes up front or in the backfield, and that worries me with a young quarterback.

Defensively, Tennessee got better up front with the additions of John Franklin-Meyers and Jermaine Johnson, but the rest of this defense is still a bit of a mess. Alontae Taylor brings some promise, but other than that, I don’t really trust this secondary.

2026 was never going to be the year the Titans got back to the playoffs. This is a two-year project at the least.

Record Prediction

vs New York Jets – L

vs Philadelphia Eagles – L

at New York Giants – L

at Baltimore Ravens – L

vs Houston Texans – L

at Indianapolis Colts – L

vs Cleveland Browns – W

at Cincinnati Bengals – L

vs Jacksonville Jaguars – L

at Dallas Cowboys – L

at Jacksonville Jaguars – L

vs Washington Commanders – W

at Detroit Lions – L

vs Indianapolis Colts – W

at Las Vegas Raiders – L

vs Pittsburgh Steelers – W

at Houston Texans – L

Final Record: 4-13 (1-5)