The Buffalo Bills and Atlanta Falcons will meet in Mercedes-Benz Stadium to kick off Monday night’s doubleheader. The Falcons are coming off an early bye week, and the Bills were just upset by the New England Patriots last weekend. Both teams want to get back in the win column, but only one will come out on top.

Here are some key storylines, players to watch, and bold predictions for Monday night’s game.

Key Storylines

Can Michael Penix turn his season around?

The Falcons had high hopes for Michael Penix Jr. this year, but he’s yet to live up to them. Through four games, Penix has thrown for 918 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions while completing 62.4 percent of his passes. It’s not like he’s constantly under duress, either. He’s been pressured on 31.4 percent of his dropbacks, which is the 6th-lowest rate among starting quarterbacks.

The game just hasn’t slowed down for him yet. He looks overwhelmed at times, so he’ll need to find a way to play a bit more calmly on Monday night. I will give him credit; he looked good in Week 4 when he threw for 313 yards and two touchdowns, but overall, it’s been a disappointing start.

Unfortunately, Penix faces a Buffalo defense that ranks second in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (154). If Penix can play clean football, Atlanta will have a shot in this game. But if the pressure gets to him and he’s off, Buffalo could run away with this game.

Can the Falcons slow down James Cook?

The recipe for slowing down the Bills’ offense is simple: stop James Cook, and a lot of what they do gets taken away. Just look at last week. The Patriots held Cook to 49 rushing yards and no receptions, and they held the Bills to 20 points. When you take away the run game and make Josh Allen throw to his receivers every play, their offense tends to have some issues.

The Falcons have a very average run defense, which gives up 109 rushing yards per game, but that number is largely inflated by the Commanders’ rushing for 147 yards on them before the bye. Through the first three weeks, only one of their opposing running backs – Chuba Hubbard – averaged over 3.5 yards per carry.

If the Falcons can do the same thing to Cook, they will have a chance of containing the Bills’ offense.

Will Bijan Robinson be the X-factor?

If the Falcons want to win this game tonight, they’re going to need Bijan Robinson to be at his best. When he’s playing well and the Falcons are opening up some holes for him to run through, he’s as good as anyone else in the league. Not only is he a big rushing threat, but he’s a massive receiving threat out of the backfield, totaling 270 receiving yards in four games.

With Darnell Mooney out, the Falcons really only have two major playmakers – Robinson and Drake London. When those two have big games, the Falcons usually win. If Bijan can total, say, 150 yards and a touchdown or two, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Falcons pull off the upset. But if Robinson is shut down, I don’t see them having much offensive success at all.

Players to Watch

James Cook (RB, Buffalo Bills)

We talked about how when James Cook struggles, the Bills’ offense struggles, so that’s why he’s my No. 1 player to watch tonight. If you throw their game against the Commanders out the window, the Falcons have one of the best run defenses in the league. Cook and his offensive line are going to have to find ways to consistently get yards on the ground, but it won’t be easy.

Falcons know that if they can slow Cook down, they can make Josh Allen’s life more difficult than it needs to be. I expect them to sell out to stop the run and force the Bills’ receivers to consistently win down the field.

James Pearce (DE, Atlanta Falcons)

After selecting Jalon Walker with their first-round pick, the Falcons traded back into the first to select another edge rusher, James Pearce. Through four games, Pearce has been Atlanta’s best pass rusher, even though he has just one sack. He leads the team in pressures (11) and hurries (9) and is second in pass rush win rate (13.2 percent).

Like with most quarterbacks, one way to ensure Josh Allen doesn’t beat you is by pressuring him. It doesn’t happen often, he’s one of the least-pressured quarterbacks in the league, but when he is pressured, his number drop drastically.

Only one team has been able to put consistent pressure on Allen, and that’s the Patriots. They shut down Cook and made sure Allen was never comfortable in the pocket. And guess what happened? They won.

If Pearce can help the Falcons put consistent pressure on Allen, they can slow him and the Bills’ offense down.

Dalton Kincaid (TE, Buffalo Bills)

Dalton Kincaid’s performance this season has helped make up for some of the Bills’ deficiencies at wide receiver. He’s having the best season of his career thus far, catching 20 of his 24 targets for 287 yards and three touchdowns. He’s coming off a 108-yard performance in the loss to the Patriots, and Josh Allen will need him to bring his A game again tonight.

When the Bills need a big play tonight, Allen is going to look Kincaid’s way. The Bills’ TE has at least one catch of 20+ yards in four of their first five games this season. He’s a sneaky big play threat, so when it’s 3rd-and-long, expect Allen to target his big tight end.

Bold Predictions

Drake London goes off for 150+ yards and a touchdown

With Darnell Mooney out, the Falcons don’t have many receivers who can take targets away from Drake London. He’s the only wide receiver on the team with over 100 yards, and in the past, when Mooney is out, London’s had some big games (though it is a very small sample size).

London has been hampered a bit by Michael Penix’s play, but right before the Falcons’ bye, London had 110 yards and a touchdown. I see him having another big game tonight and going for 150+ yards and a touchdown, because that’s what he’ll need to do if they want to keep up with Buffalo.

Both teams combine for 8+ sacks

In the nine games these two teams have played, they’ve allowed just 13 sacks to their quarterbacks. The Falcons’ and Bills’ offensive lines rank T-2nd and 7th in PFF pass blocking grade, respectively, and their opponents have just had a difficult time getting after Josh Allen and Michael Penix.

Tonight, I think that changes.

For this bold prediction, I’m counting on a breakout game from James Pearce. The rookie has been great in four games this season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets Josh Allen on the ground a couple of times.

I’m also counting on the Bills bringing pressure more often than not. Penix has proven to be a bit shaky when he’s under pressure, so expect to see a lot of blitzes from Buffalo’s defense, which should equal a bunch of sacks.

Bills win by 10+

The Bills are favored by 3.5 points in this game, but I don’t think it’s nearly enough. The Bills are clearly the better team in this game, and even though the Falcons are coming off a bye, I think the Bills get out to a big lead and run away with this thing pretty early on.

Josh Allen and James Cook should prove to be too much for a Falcons defense that’s given up 20+ points in every game this season. I also think the Bills’ defense will throw some exotic looks at Penix to try and confuse him, and with the way he’s played for the majority of the season, I don’t think he’ll have much success.

My money’s on the Bills -3.5, and I don’t think I’ll be sweating it out for too long tonight.