The Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders kick off Week 10 of the NFL season on Thursday Night Football. This AFC West showdown could be closer than many think if the Raiders play how they did last week against Jacksonville.

TNF is always very important in fantasy football. If you get it right, you can start with a massive lead over your opponent. But if you get it wrong, you’ll be starting on the back foot, and that could be catastrophic this late in the season.

Today, I’ll be breaking down this game and giving you my best starts and sits.

Fantasy Breakdown

Before we get into the start, sit recommendations. Here’s a table breaking down how many points each team gives up to each position group, and where that ranks across the league.

Note: 32nd means they give up the most points. 1st means they give up the fewest points.

So what does this table mean?

The Las Vegas Raiders’ defense is pretty bad, except for against tight ends. They give up a ton of points to quarterbacks, running backs and especially receivers. The Broncos’ offense has been pretty inconsistent at times, but overall has been pretty good. They should have a lot of success this week.

On the other side, the Broncos’ defense is very good. They rank top-10 against every single position, and their offense has been good enough that you want to avoid starting anybody’s defense that plays against them.

Best Starts

Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos

Bo Nix is pretty much always going to be a start in fantasy, but this week, he definitely is. The Raiders’ defense isn’t very good, especially against the pass, and we’ve seen Nix tear up some poor defenses this season (25 vs DAL, 39 vs NYG, 26 vs CIN), so there’s no reason he doesn’t have a 20-25 point performance in him on Thursday night.

Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders

There are some players you just throw stats out the window for, and Brock Bowers is one of them. He is such a dynamic playmaker at such a premium position that I don’t care who he’s playing; he’s a must-start. In his first game back, he went for 120+ yards and three touchdowns. I don’t expect that tonight, but the offense is going to run through him, so he’s going to have a good game pretty much no matter what.

Troy Franklin, WR, Denver Broncos

Courtland Sutton is an easy start this week, but I wanted to also give you his teammate, Troy Franklin, as another one. Franklin has a very obvious connection with Nix, which has grown over these last three weeks. He’s been targeted 28 times in that span and has now overtaken Sutton as the most-targeted player on the team. He could see somewhere from 7-10 targets tonight, which makes him a very valuable FLEX play if you have one of the many receivers on bye/are suffering from injuries.

Denver’s Defense

The Raiders might not score more than 10 points tonight. I know their offense looked much improved last time out, but that was against a Jacksonville defense that isn’t all that good. Denver’s got one of the best defenses in football, and I expect them to shut the Raiders down on TNF.

Best Sits

Ashton Jeanty, RB, Las Vegas Raiders

Ashton Jeanty is a hard guy to sit considering you probably spent a first or second rounder on him, but I don’t see a way he has much success on Thursday. His fantasy production is very touchdown dependent, and like I said, I don’t see Vegas scoring a whole lot. Now, if you’ve got a lot of guys on bye or you’re injured, he should still get around 10 points, but I just don’t think he has the ceiling a lot of other running backs do this week.

Geno Smith, QB, Las Vegas Raiders

Geno Smith just had easily his best game of the season, throwing for nearly 300 yards and four touchdowns in the Raiders’ narrow loss to Jacksonville. It may be tempting to start him if you’re weak at quarterback this week, but for many of the same reasons as Jeanty, I’d keep Smith on my bench.

Evan Engram, TE, Denver Broncos

Evan Engram is still being started in nearly a quarter of Sleeper leagues despite the fact that he’s eclipsed the 10-point mark once this year. If the Raiders do one thing well defensively, it’s defend tight ends. I know the tight end position is thin, but there are other better options on waivers.