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Essentials Inside The Story

  • Dak Prescott draws a matchup that historically limits quarterback fantasy production.
  • Justin Herbert’s health and matchup data point in opposite directions.
  • Defensive scoring trends heavily influence Week 16 start-sit decisions.

The Dallas Cowboys might have less than a one percent chance to make the playoffs this year, but that doesn’t mean they’re not going to go out there and try to beat the Los Angeles Chargers this weekend. With a win, the Cowboys would stay in playoff contention for another week while making the Chargers’ lives a whole lot harder than they need to be.

There are fantasy stars on both sides of the field in this game, so I went in and broke down the matchup and gave my best start and sit recommendations for the semifinal round.

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Fantasy Breakdown

Before we get into the start and sit recommendations, here’s a table breaking down how many points each team gives up to each position group and where that ranks across the league.

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PositionCowboysRankChargersRank
QB24.0832nd12.092nd
RB25.1726th19.9612th
WR39.7132nd25.272nd
TE13.1916th11.467th
DEF3.295th7.6424th

Note: 32nd means they give up the most points. 1st means they give up the fewest points.

So what does this table mean?

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These two defenses couldn’t be more different. The Cowboys stink at pretty much everything, while the Chargers are really good at pretty much everything. I will say, Dallas’s run defense is much improved since they brought in Quinnen Williams, so their 26th ranking isn’t really indicative of how good they actually are in that department.

Best Starts

Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert has killed me in recent weeks. He has not been playing well with both of his tackles hurt and a newly operated-on left hand, but he gets to play the Cowboys, who are easily the worst passing defense in the NFL.

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They give up nearly four more points per game to quarterbacks than any other team, so you always have to start the quarterback they’re facing.

Javonte Williams, RB, Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys aren’t going to win this game by dropping back and passing 35 times. They’re going to have to establish some sort of run game with Javonte Williams, and I think they could have a successful day running the ball. Williams is having a career year, and while the Chargers’ run defense is tough, it’s the weakest spot on their defense.

Ladd McConkey, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

I drafted both Justin Herbert and Ladd McConkey this year, and they have not really lived up to my expectations for them. Somehow, I’ve made it to the semifinals, and I’m terrified to start both of them, but I think I have to. Dallas’s passing defense is just so bad, and I’d feel like such an idiot if I left them on my bench and they both went off for 20+ points, so I’m starting both of them.

CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys

CeeDee Lamb has really started to look like he’s back at 100 percent in the last three games or so. Right when he returned, George Pickens was outperforming him, but Lamb has taken his WR1 role back in recent weeks while Pickens has struggled. I don’t necessarily think Dallas will have a ton of success throwing the football, but you can’t bench Lamb. He’s too talented and will always find ways to get open.

Best Sits

Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys

I don’t say this often, but Dak Prescott is a sit this week. The Chargers’ pass defense is almost as good as Houston’s. They allow just 12.09 fantasy points per game to the quarterback position (Houston is at 11.87), and we’ve seen them shut down Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes the last two weeks.

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It’s hard to bench the QB5 on the year, but this is a horrible matchup.

Omarion Hampton, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

In his two games since returning from injury, Omarion Hampton has seen 13 and 15 carries but has only scored 21 combined fantasy points. I know the table says Dallas’s run defense ranks 26th in the league, but they’ve probably been top five since adding Quinnen Williams at the trade deadline. The Chargers are going to find a lot of success through the air and not a lot on the ground, so I’d bench Hampton this week.

George Pickens, WR, Dallas Cowboys

I think Pickens could end up being a decent start in fantasy this week, but he won’t be on the same level as Lamb. I believe Prescott is going to struggle, at least to his standards, throwing the football, so there won’t be as much to go around as normal, and if Lamb is the WR1, Pickens will be very touchdown-dependent this week.

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Written by

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Luke Hubbard

557 Articles

Luke Hubbard is a NFL Analyst at EssentiallySports, recognized for his comprehensive coverage across the NCAA and NFL landscapes. An LSU graduate, Luke brings deep reporting experience as a writer for On SI, where he covers the Tennessee Titans, Michigan Wolverines, Baylor Bears, and Virginia Tech Hokies. Previously, he served as a contributing writer for Canal Street Chronicles at SB Nation, focusing on the New Orleans Saints since 2023. Luke has also provided in-depth LSU athletics reporting for Rivals and Athlon Sports, spanning football, basketball, baseball, and gymnastics. Luke’s journey in sports journalism began as a student intern in the LSU Athletic Communications Department, where he covered diverse sports including women’s volleyball. His bylines appear in major outlets such as Athlon Sports, SB Nation, and Sports Illustrated, earning him recognition for insightful analysis and versatile game coverage. In addition to his print and digital work, Luke has contributed content to publications like Death Valley Insider, BVM Sports, and Yardbarker. Luke loves sports and the stories behind them. From NFL clashes and college rivalries to the roar of Formula 1, he chases the action with both a reporter’s tenacity and a storyteller’s heart. Based in Louisiana, he brings hometown insight with a wider perspective, giving fans sharp analysis, inside scoops, and just enough personality to keep it fun.

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Shrabana Sengupta

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