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It feels like Week 1 of the NFL season kicked off yesterday, but somehow we’re already entering Week 14. The playoffs are almost here, and there are still 10 teams in each conference that have a somewhat realistic shot of making it to the postseason.

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Week 14 is loaded with some massive games that will have drastic playoff implications. From the Cowboys and Lions on Thursday Night to the Eagles and Chargers on Monday, there are games throughout the weekend that will go a long way towards determining who makes the playoffs.

With Week 14 kicking off tomorrow, we’re going to go through some of the biggest games this weekend and see how their results could affect the playoff picture.

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All playoff odds via NFL.com.

Cowboys at Lions

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Week 14 of the NFL season kicks off with one of the biggest matchups of the week between the Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions. Both teams are on the outside looking in of the NFC playoffs, but they’re both very much in the hunt. Right now, the Cowboys are 6-5-1, but have won three straight games, while the Lions are 7-5, and have three of their last five.

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All the momentum is with Dallas. They just knocked off Kansas City on Thanksgiving Day and have won three straight games since the NFL trade deadline. Their defense, which ranks 31st in points per game allowed (28.5), has given up 21.7 points per game. And their offense, which is averaging 29 points per game, has hovered right around that mark over that three-game span.

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On the other side, the Lions are coming off a disappointing home loss to their NFC North rivals on Thanksgiving. Their offense, which was so potent early this year, has struggled quite a bit in their losses. However, when they’re playing well, they’ve still been able to put up some impressive point totals.

This game should be a shootout, and both teams desperately need to win it. With a loss, the Cowboys would all but be eliminated from playoff contention, but a win could put them in a decent spot. As for Detroit, a win would boost its playoff odds to over 50 percent, while a loss would drop them below 25 percent.

Big stakes on Thursday night.

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ScenarioCowboysLions
Current Odds16 percent43 percent
With Win31 percent58 percent
With Loss6 percent23 percent

Colts at Jaguars

The Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars have a showdown on Sunday that’s much bigger than people realize. The Jags overtook the Colts for the AFC South lead after the Colts dropped their second straight game. Both teams are 8-4, and a win here would give one of them solo possession of the AFC South lead.

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Just a few weeks ago, the Colts were the 1-seed in the AFC. Now, if they lose, there’s a chance they’re out of the playoff picture entirely. It would take the Chargers, Texans, and Bills winning on top of their loss, but it’s still possible that the Colts could be on the outside looking in after this week.

As for Jacksonville, they started hot and then cooled off a bit, but now they’re riding a three-game win streak into what could be their biggest game of the season. A win this week would all but lock them into at least a Wild Card spot, but a loss makes things a bit more tricky for Liam Coen in year one.

I think the Jags have the upper hand in this game. Not only are they at home, but they have the No. 1 rushing defense in terms of yards per game allowed. If they can shut Jonathan Taylor down like Kansas City and Houston have done the past two weeks, they should walk out of here with a win and the AFC South lead.

ScenarioColtsJaguars
Current Odds72 percent79 percent
With Win86 percent95 percent
With Loss55 percent67 percent

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Steelers at Ravens

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In terms of how much this game will impact either team’s odds, this is the biggest game of the week. The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers are currently 6-6, with the former leading the AFC North via a tiebreaker. These two are yet to face off, so they will play again later this year, but whoever wins this game gets a MASSIVE leg up in the division. Neither team is likely to make the playoffs as a Wild Card, so winning the AFC North is paramount.

The Ravens won five straight games to get back into playoff contention before a slip-up on Thanksgiving Day against the Bengals. The Steelers, who got off to a 4-1 start, have lost five of their last seven games, which allowed Baltimore to claw their way back into this thing.

On the surface, Baltimore should win this game. They’re at home, they’ve been playing better, and they have the better quarterback, but there’s no such thing as a guarantee in the NFL, especially in this matchup against two bitter rivals. I have Baltimore winning this game and separating itself from Pittsburgh in the playoff picture, but we’ll have to see what happens.

ScenarioSteelersRavens
Current Odds31 percent69 percent
With Win62 percent84 percent
With Loss15 percent38 percent

Bears at Packers

Another big divisional matchup this weekend takes place at 4:25 ET. The Chicago Bears, who are currently the 1-seed in the NFC, will travel to Green Bay to face the Packers at Lambeau Field, a place they’ve only won at once in the last nine years.

Despite being the 1-seed in the NFC at the moment, the Bears have a 76 percent chance of making the postseason. That’s because they have one of the toughest remaining schedules in the NFL. Outside of their matchup against the Browns, there isn’t a single game left on their schedule I can point to and guarantee they’ll win (Packers 2x, 49ers, and Lions). They should still be fine, but a loss here would drop them to 9-4, and it will almost certainly take a minimum of 10 or 11 wins to make it as a Wild Card in the NFC this year.

To further this point, the Bears have just the fourth-best odds to secure the 1-seed in the NFC at 10 percent, and they aren’t even the favorites to win their division.

As for the Packers, they’ve been trending up ever since they suffered back-to-back losses to the Panthers and Eagles. They’ve won three straight games and just toppled the Lions on the road on Thanksgiving. A win here would put them in the lead of the NFC North and would give them a 95 percent chance to make the postseason.

There’s a chance, albeit a very small one, that the Packers walk out of this week as the 1-seed in the NFC. If they win and the Rams and Seahawks lose to the Cardinals and Falcons, they will be the top seed in the NFC.

A loss wouldn’t be catastrophic for either team, but it would put them on the back foot in their division and could end up costing them the chance to host a playoff game. They will play again later this season, so the loser will have a chance at redemption, but it may be too little too late by then.

ScenarioBearsPackers
Current Odds76 percent89 percent
With Win93 percent95 percent
With Loss70 percent75 percent

Texans at Chiefs

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The Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs are, in my opinion, the two most likely AFC teams to sneak into the playoff picture by the end of the season. The Texans are 7-5 and have won their last four games. The Chiefs are 6-6, but have been able to hang around with everyone; they just can’t finish out close games.

The winner of this game is going to come out feeling really good about their chances. Every single one of the AFC’s current Wild Card teams has a realistic shot of losing this week. The No. 7 seed Bills face a Joe Burrow-led Bengals team. The sixth-seeded Colts face a tough Jaguars team. And the team holding the 5-seed, the Chargers, have to host the Eagles. Plus, the Steelers/Ravens are also in the mix for the final Wild Card spot, but one of them is guaranteed to lose, and the other will occupy the 4-seed. Essentially, a lot of ground could be made up this week for the winner of this game.

This will be a fascinating matchup. Kansas City is easily the better roster, but Houston’s defense is elite. Will Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid be able to scheme up ways to beat them? Or will their offense get shut down and have to rely on their defense to get key stops in this game?

A win for the Texans would give them a near-90 percent chance to make the playoffs, with a loss making it pretty much a coin flip. As for the Chiefs, a win would put them at a coin flip, while a loss could all but end their season.

This will be a huge game on Sunday night. Hopefully, it’s a close game, just to add a little more drama to the playoff picture.

ScenarioChiefsTexans
Current Odds35 percent63 percent
With Win49 percent85 percent
With Loss11 percent49 percent

Eagles at Chargers

Rounding out the Week 14 schedule is another game that will have massive playoff implications. The Philadelphia Eagles, who have lost two straight games, will travel across the country to face the Los Angeles Chargers on MNF.

The Eagles built a massive lead in the NFC East with an 8-2 start, but back-to-back losses have them at 8-4, just two games ahead of the 6-3-1 Cowboys, with whom they split the season series. It feels like they have one hand on the division trophy, but a loss here and a Cowboys win on Thursday suddenly makes things a lot more interesting. They’d be within a game of each other, and with Dallas’s tie and the series tied 1-1, Dallas would own the tiebreaker should the two end with identical records.

Things are a bit more blurry for the Chargers, who occupy the 5-seed in the AFC. A win would give them a 76 percent chance to make the playoffs, but a loss would put them right at 50 percent. They may be the 5-seed, but the 6- and 7-seeds are also 8-4, so there is a tiny margin for error. And with Justin Herbert potentially missing time after fracturing his non-throwing hand, and the toughest remaining schedules (Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, Texans, and Broncos), it feels like the Chargers could really use a win here. In my opinion, a loss would drop them below a 50 percent chance of making it, especially if they could lose to both bubble teams trying to chase them down, but that’s just my thoughts.

If Herbert plays, I actually like the Chargers’ odds. They’re at home and have a defense that can slow down the Eagles’ offense, which has really struggled in recent weeks. Without him, though, I’m just not sure they have the firepower to pull this one off.

This week is loaded with big games, and it ends with one that could have massive playoff ramifications.

ScenarioEaglesChargers
Current Odds95 percent61 percent
With Win98 percent76 percent
With Loss89 percent50 percent

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