The NFL playoffs will kick off on Saturday afternoon, and it should be a thrilling month of football. Pretty much every team in the postseason has a real shot to run the table if they get hot, but they’d all have to have some dominoes fall their way.

Before the playoffs started, I went through each team and tried to pick out their ideal path to the Lombardi. Obviously, everyone in the NFC wants Carolina to win so they can play the Panthers, but that’s not realistic. I tried to keep these paths as realistic as possible, or else what’s the point of even doing this exercise?

1. Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos are the 1-seed in the AFC, so they obviously get a bye in the Wild Card round. They will kick off the postseason in the Divisional Round with a matchup against the lowest-remaining seed. In an ideal world, they’d love to get the Los Angeles Chargers in the first round. They match up very well against LA. The Chargers have arguably the worst offensive line in the league, and Denver’s pass rush is elite. They should be able to take over this game and hand their division rivals a very similar loss to the one they suffered in Week 18, even with Justin Herbert starting in this game.

With a win over the Chargers, the Broncos would advance to the AFC Championship, where they’d ideally like to play the Jacksonville Jaguars. I don’t think they want any part of Buffalo or Houston, and I’d rather face Trevor Lawrence than Drake Maye in the playoffs. I think Denver’s defense could rattle Lawrence, and Bo Nix and Co. should be able to have success against the least-scary defense in the AFC playoffs (which isn’t even hate, the AFC is just loaded with elite defenses).

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In the Super Bowl, Denver’s ideal matchup would probably be Chicago. The Bears don’t have a great defense, and Caleb Williams can be rattled if you put enough pressure on him. If Denver were to get these three matchups, they would cruise to a Super Bowl victory.

Divisional Round: Los Angeles Chargers

AFC Championship: Jacksonville Jaguars

Super Bowl: Chicago Bears

2. New England Patriots

The New England Patriots will face the Chargers in the first round of the playoffs, and if they win that game, they will get the second-lowest remaining seed in the AFC. In an ideal world, I think the Patriots would love to see Jacksonville, even though they’re the 3-seed. I don’t think they want any part of Buffalo for the third time this year, and Houston’s defense is the best in the business, which leaves the Jags as the only remaining option.

If they were to beat the Jaguars in the Divisional Round and advance to the AFC Championship, New England would probably want to host Houston. New England could probably put up 20ish points on the Texans, and I think their defense is good enough to hold C.J. Stroud and Co. to 20 or less. But to be honest, I don’t love any of the potential matchups for New England in this scenario.

If the Patriots make it to the Super Bowl, their ideal opponent would be the San Francisco 49ers. Their defense has been suspect against playoff teams this year, and I think Drake Maye could out-duel Brock Purdy in the big game.

Divisional Round: Jacksonville Jaguars

AFC Championship: Houston Texans

Super Bowl: San Francisco 49ers

3. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars will host the Buffalo Bills in the Wild Card round, and if they can make it out alive, they will either go to New England or host the second-highest seed remaining. If things went perfectly for Jacksonville, LA would beat New England and Pittsburgh would squeeze by Houston, setting up a home game against the Steelers in the Divisional Round, which is a game Jacksonville likely wins pretty easily.

In the AFC Championship, if that went according to plan, the Jags would either travel to Denver or host the Chargers in the AFC Championship. Obviously, LA would be ideal, but I said I’m going to try to keep this realistic, and I’ve already asked for two pretty unlikely things to happen, so I have to send Jacksonville to Denver. And to be fair, Jacksonville beat Denver at Mile High a few weeks ago by two scores, so this isn’t the worst matchup for them.

If the Jags escape Denver unscathed, their ideal Super Bowl matchup would also be against San Fran. They’ve already proven they can beat the 49ers earlier this year, and I don’t think they want to face a defensive team. They’d rather get into a shootout than have to win 13-10.

Divisional Round: Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC Championship: Denver Broncos

Super Bowl: San Francisco 49ers

4. Pittsburgh Steelers

Let’s be real for a moment. The Pittsburgh Steelers don’t have a shot to win the Super Bowl, so I’ll keep this quick. If they get past Houston (which is a big if), they’d ideally want to face Buffalo. New England and Jacksonville are easier games, but they need home-field advantage if they want to keep on winning. If they take down Josh Allen, then ideally they’d get to host LA in the AFC Championship, but that would require them beating Denver. Already pretty unrealistic, but so is Pittsburgh making it this far, so let’s stick with the trend. If they somehow manage to make it to San Fran for the Super Bowl, their ideal matchup would be Philadelphia. The only way for Pittsburgh to consistently win in the postseason is pulling out close defensive battles, and the Eagles’ offense sucks, so they’d have a shot in that game.

Divisional Round: Buffalo Bills

AFC Championship: Los Angeles Chargers

Super Bowl: Philadelphia Eagles

5. Houston Texans

Houston has the best Wild Card matchup of all the AFC teams. After they beat Pittsburgh, things get a bit murkier, though. I think if all the Wild Card teams can’t win and allow Houston to host the Divisional, they’d love for the Jags and Pats to win, and to go to Jacksonville in round two. Their defense is good enough to shut anyone down, and I think they could get under Trevor Lawrence’s skin, especially because they’ve already played and know his tendencies.

In the AFC Championship, I think they’d want to play New England. They’d get to play a young, though very talented, quarterback in his first championship game. Who knows how Drake Maye is going to play in the postseason? It’s a whole different world from the regular season.

If Houston reaches the Super Bowl, Philly is their best bet. Like I said before, the Eagles’ offense stinks. I know their defense is very good, but there’s a real chance Houston can hold Philly to 14 or fewer points.

Divisional Round: Jacksonville Jaguars

AFC Championship: New England Patriots

Super Bowl: Philadelphia Eagles

6. Buffalo Bills

The Bills will travel to Jacksonville in the Wild Card, and if they can escape, I don’t think they’d mind a trip to Denver. Josh Allen in the playoffs is a different animal, and Buffalo has a very strong pass defense. Their run defense is suspect, but so is Denver’s rushing offense, so it offsets. I’d trust Allen to get this one done.

In the AFC Championship, there’s only one team the Bills would want to see, and that’s New England. I think they’d love the chance to knock the Patriots out of the playoffs, and I don’t think New England wants any part of Buffalo. It would be a really, really good game, but again, I’d have to trust Allen here.

In the Super Bowl, the Bills would want Chicago. They have a pretty good offense, but Allen could absolutely torch this defense, even without a ton of weapons. I don’t think the Bears would stand much of a chance.

Divisional Round: Denver Broncos

AFC Championship: New England Patriots

Super Bowl: Chicago Bears

7. Los Angeles Chargers

Rounding out the AFC is the Chargers, who I don’t think have much of a chance. If they somehow beat New England, they would be locked into going to Denver in the Divisional Round, and if they escaped that, Houston would probably be their ideal AFC Championship matchup. LA needs it to be a defensive game, so they don’t want a super high-powered offense, so the Texans fit the bill.

In the Super Bowl, I think the Chargers would want to see Seattle or Philly, but for the sake of changing things up, I’ll say Seattle. Again, they want a low-scoring affair, and Seattle’s offense has sputtered at times. Plus, I don’t trust Sam Darnold all that much in the postseason, so I think they’d have a chance.

Divisional Round: Denver Broncos

AFC Championship: Houston Texans

Super Bowl: Seattle Seahawks

1. Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks have a first-round bye, and I believe they’d be thrilled to see Green Bay in the Divisional Round. Jordan Love is a notorious playoff choker, and the Packers don’t have Micah Parsons anymore. They’re much less scary than they were a month ago.

In the NFC Championship, San Francisco is probably their preferred matchup. They just beat them a couple of weeks ago, and San Fran’s defense does not scare me at all. I think it also helps that they already lost to the 49ers, because beating a team three times in one year is not easy.

In the Super Bowl, Seattle would love to see the Jaguars. Their defense could hold the Jags to 20-23 points, and I don’t think Jacksonville’s secondary is good enough to contain Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Divisional Round: Green Bay Packers

NFC Championship: San Francisco 49ers

Super Bowl: Jacksonville Jaguars

2. Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears get their NFC North rivals in the Wild Card, and if they win, they’d get to host the second-lowest-seeded team remaining. Ideally, that would be Carolina, but we know they’re not going to win, so I think they’d rather get Philadelphia than Los Angeles. The Eagles’ offense is no good, and I just think the Rams are the better all-around team.

In the NFC Championship, it’s either the Seahawks or Rams, and if I had to pick, the Rams are probably the best matchup because they’d get to play at home. Matthew Stafford and Co. are a very scary matchup, but I would not want any part of going to Seattle and playing in front of the 12th man in the NFC Championship game.

In the Super Bowl, Chicago’s ideal matchup is probably Buffalo. Josh Allen is terrifying, but Buffalo’s run defense is horrific, and Chicago’s rushing attack is one of the best and most efficient in the league.

Divisional Round: Philadelphia Eagles

NFC Championship: Los Angeles Rams

Super Bowl: Buffalo Bills

3. Philadelphia Eagles

Philly will host the 49ers in the first round, and if they can get through that game, they’d ideally want to go to Chicago. Hosting would be an option, but it’d have to be against the Rams, unless Carolina pulled off a major upset, so going to Chicago is probably better for them than hosting LA. Their offense has struggled all year, but Chicago’s defense is nothing special, so they could score some points.

In the NFC Championship, I think the Eagles would then want to host the Rams. As I said before, I want no part of going to Seattle in the playoffs, so the only realistic option left is hosting the Rams. It wouldn’t be an easy game, but at least it’s at home.

In the Super Bowl, Philly matches up the best against Jacksonville. The Jaguars’ defense is the least-scary of the bunch, and Philadelphia can frustrate any offense, especially a young one like JAX.

Divisional Round: Chicago Bears

NFC Championship: Los Angeles Rams

Super Bowl: Jacksonville Jaguars

4. Carolina Panthers

Much like the Steelers, the Panthers aren’t making it to the Super Bowl. If they beat LA, they’d have to hope San Fran or Green Bay win, and then go to Chicago, where they could try to pound the rock in cold, windy conditions. If they managed to escape that, their ideal NFC Championship game matchup would probably be San Francisco, so they could at least play at home. In the Super Bowl, they’d have to hope Pittsburgh somehow ran the table if they wanted any shot, because they’d 100 percent lose to everyone else in the AFC.

Divisional Round: Chicago Bears

NFC Championship: San Francisco 49ers

Super Bowl: Pittsburgh Steelers

5. Los Angeles Rams

The Rams have an easy Wild Card matchup against Carolina, and in an ideal world, they’d go to Philadelphia in the Divisional Round. I know the Rams lost to Philly earlier this year, but these are two completely different teams than in Week 3, and I think they’d be able to avenge that loss fairly easily.

In the NFC Championship, the Rams would kill for an opportunity to host San Francisco. They split the season series against them, but their first loss came in Week 5, and the last time these two played, the Rams beat San Fran by 16. I don’t think they’re scared of Brock Purdy or that defense.

If the Rams made the Super Bowl, I think the Patriots would be a good, realistic matchup for them. Drake Maye has never played on that big of a stage, and the entire Patriots roster is relatively young and inexperienced. They wouldn’t be able to stop Stafford’s passing attack, and I believe the Rams’ pass rush could bother Maye a bit.

Divisional Round: Philadelphia Eagles

NFC Championship: San Francisco 49ers

Super Bowl: New England Patriots

6. San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers were one of the hottest teams in the league before they were dismantled last week by the Seahawks, but they’re still a team nobody wants to play. If they beat Philly in the Wild Card, they’d need Green Bay to beat Chicago to avoid going to Seattle, which I think is plausible, but then they’d most likely have to go to LA. Neither is a desirable option, but SoFi would be a less-threatening environment, so I’ll say the Rams are their desired Divisional Round opponent.

That leaves Seattle or Green Bay available for the NFC Championship. Obviously, Green Bay would be the desired outcome in that scenario, and if Jordan Love plays well, I don’t know if it’s that big of a stretch. They’d get to host the Packers, and that would be a very winnable game.

In the Super Bowl, which would be played in their home stadium, the 49ers’ desired opponent would probably be Jacksonville. Their defense isn’t good enough to hold their opponent to under 20 points, so they need to play a team without an elite defense, and the Jags are one of the only ones in the AFC not considered a top-10 unit.

Divisional Round: Los Angeles Rams

NFC Championship: Green Bay Packers

Super Bowl: Jacksonville Jaguars

7. Green Bay Packers

If the Packers beat the Bears, they would have to go to Seattle for the Divisional Round. If they were to win that, I think they’d rather go to Philadelphia than LA or San Fran. I’ve spoken ad nauseam about the Eagles’ offensive struggles this year, so there’s a real chance Green Bay can out-score them.

In the Super Bowl, I don’t love any of the matchups for the Packers, but I’d have to once again say Jacksonville is the best, realistic option. Trevor Lawrence doesn’t scare me as much as Josh Allen, Drake Maye, Houston’s defense, or Denver’s defense, so it has to be the Jags.