One day is all that separates us from the start of the 2026 NFL Draft. We’ve waited nearly 75 days since Super Bowl LX for this day. Ever since the Seattle Seahawks beat down on the New England Patriots in early February, NFL fans have been eagerly awaiting the draft, and it’s finally here.

In the lead up to the draft, there are always tons of rumors swirling, and this year is no exception. Outside of Fernando Mendoza going to the Las Vegas Raiders, nobody really knows what’s going to happen in this draft, so today, I’m going to sort through some of the biggest NFL Draft rumors and try to decipher which ones are true and which ones are false.

David Bailey is a Lock to the Jets at No. 2

24 hours before the draft, we usually have a good idea who is going to go fourth overall. But not this year. The New York Jets have seemingly gone back and forth between Arvell Reese and David Bailey, but right now it appears they’re leaning towards Bailey.

Pretty much everyone’s final mocks have Bailey going second overall, but is it all a smokescreen? I understand they need a pure pass rusher, but to me, Arvell Reese is the better prospect. He has the upside of a Micah Parsons off the edge, but if he doesn’t work there, he can still be an elite off-ball linebacker that’s very good at blitzing the quarterback.

In my eyes, Reese is the safer prospect, because if he doesn’t work as a full-time edge, he can do so many other things it doesn’t really matter. Bailey has a ton of upside, but if he doesn’t hit, there’s no fall back plan. And the Jets need more than just an edge, so getting a guy that can rush the passer, drop back in coverage and defend the run would benefit them more than just getting an edge.

I’m not saying these insiders are wrong, but I wouldn’t rule out Reese at No. 2 overall. It’s probably 70 percent Bailey, 30 percent Reese.

Verdict: Fiction

The Cardinals Are the Team to Beat For Ty Simpson

Ty Simpson is one of the most divisive players in this draft class. The Alabama quarterback is considered the second-best QB in the class, but there’s a big debate about whether or not he’ll go in the first round, and who will take him.

Right now, the Arizona Cardinals are the overwhelming favorites to select Simpson. On FanDuel, the Cardinals are at -170 to select Simpson, with the next closest team being the New York Jets at +470. That’s a pretty big discrepancy, so unless the Cardinals are just playing everyone for a fool, they’re going to end up with Simpson.

Now it’s just a question of where. They’re not going to take him at No. 3, but do they try to do the same thing the New York Giants did last year and trade back into the first round to select him? Right now, they have the No. 34 pick, right behind the Jets at No. 33, so if they want to make sure they get him, they may have to move up. Plus, getting back into the first round gets you the fifth-year option, which is extremely valuable, especially on quarterbacks.

So yes, I believe the Cardinals are the team to beat for Simpson, but I’ll be fascinated to see where they take him.

Verdict: Fact

There Will be Three or More Trades in the Top-10

There’s been a ton of talk about trades in this draft. The Arizona Cardinals and Cleveland Browns both seem hellbent on trading back, but there are some other sneaky candidates. The Washington Commanders could move back a few spots and try to take Carnell Tate if one of the top defenders slip. The New York Giants could also move back from No. 10 if they want to target a tackle and someone is sliding. There’s a lot of potential for trades, but will we see three in the top-10?

I don’t think so. I would love to see it, but it takes two to tango, and unless there’s a big run on offensive tackles early (which would probably only happen if the Cardinals and Browns didn’t trade back, eliminating two trade spots already), I don’t see teams wanting to move up for many of these prospects.

David Bailey and Arvell Reese would be two names that would demand a lot of trade attention should they fall, but there isn’t a world where both of them get past the second pick. Sonny Styles and Caleb Downs are two more that could be targeted, but I doubt both of them (if either of them) get past No. 5.

Like I said, it takes two to tango, so while there might be a lot of interest, I just don’t see three or more teams making a big move for the players in this draft class. There just isn’t enough top-end talent to warrant it.

Verdict: Fiction

Jermod McCoy Will Fall to the Second Round

Jermod McCoy’s knee situation doesn’t seem great. Many teams are expecting him to have to get another surgery before he’s ready to play, so in the last week he’s gone from potentially a top-12 pick to possibly falling out of the first round. But I don’t think he makes it quite that far.

There’s a real chance McCoy makes it through the first 28 picks, but when you look at the four teams picking 29-32, I just don’t see him getting by all of them. The Kansas City Chiefs at No. 29 really need cornerback help after losing Jaylen Watson and Trent McDuffie this offseason. The Miami Dolphins also have a huge need at corner and could take him at No. 30. New England doesn’t need corner, but you know who does? The Seattle Seahawks at No. 32.

NFL teams have much more information on McCoy’s knee than we do, so it could really be so bad that nobody wants anything to do with him. But if I’m the Chiefs, Dolphins or Seahawks at the end of the first round and a guy who is a top-10 to top-15 talent in this draft class is still sitting there, you bet I’m taking him.

Verdict: Fiction

The Seahawks Will Trade Out of Pick No. 32

I know I just said the Seahawks would probably take Jermod McCoy if he were sitting there at No. 32, and I stand by that, but there’s still a real chance he’s gone by then, and if he is, the Seahawks could absolutely move out of this pick to add some more draft capital.

The Seahawks had one of the most complete rosters in the league last season, but they got hit hard by free agency. Kenneth Walker, Tariq Woolen, Boye Mafe and Coby Bryant all walked, and they didn’t bring in any impactful players. I don’t think they expected to lose as many players as they did, and they only have four draft picks in this draft. That was initially done by design, since they don’t believe this class is super deep, but now that they have a bunch of holes, they need more picks.

If McCoy is there or they really love one of the edge rushers or guards, they could make the pick, but I feel like there’s a better chance they move back than actually make a pick at No. 32. Could be an exciting end to the night.

Verdict: Fact

Peter Woods Will Be a First Round Pick

A lot of final mocks have Peter Woods going towards the end of the first round, but I just don’t see it. This defensive tackle class is very thin, and Kayden McDonald is a much better prospect in my eyes. And now that there’s a good chance we see eight or more offensive linemen go in round one (more on that in a second), I see him getting pushed further and further down the board.

I don’t understand the Peter Woods infatuation. He’s viewed as this explosive athlete, but I don’t think he tested particularly well in the drills that he did do (he didn’t do many of them), and he weighed in at 300+ pounds. Just how explosive can you be at that weight? And on top of that, it’s not like he put that athleticism to use in a weaker-than-usual ACC conference. He only had three sacks in 2024 and two in 2025.

If Woods goes in the first round, it’s because a team believes in his athletic traits and that they can develop him. I just don’t see him ever being good enough to warrant a first round pick, but I’m not a GM.

Verdict: Fiction

Nine or More Offensive Linemen Will Go in Round 1

This class is very top-heavy at offensive tackle. There are six or seven really good ones, but after that, there’s a steep drop off. Same thing at guard. There are four that are in a tier of their own, but after they’re gone, it’s slim pickings.

Since offensive linemen are so valuable, this means we’re going to see a run of tackles and guards at some point in the draft. It’s not a matter of if, but when. Francis Mauigoa and Spencer Fano will probably come off the board in the top-10, but after that, Olaivavega Ioane, Kadyn Proctor, Monroe Freeling, Max Iheanachor, Blake Miller, Caleb Lomu, Emmanuel Pregnon, Chase Bisontis and Keylan Rutledge could all come off the board before the end of the night.

I don’t think all 11 of those guys will come off the board in round one – a couple of them will probably slide into day two – but I expect at least nine of them to be selected on Thursday night.

Verdict: Fact