One day is all that separates us from the start of the 2026 NFL Draft, nearly 75 days after the Seattle Seahawks beat down the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LX and flipped the league’s focus toward draft season. Now, with the wait almost over and the rumor cycle hitting its loudest point, there’s still remarkably little certainty about how the board will actually fall. Outside of Fernando Mendoza going to the Las Vegas Raiders, nobody really knows what’s going to happen in this draft, so today, I’m going to sort through some of the biggest NFL Draft rumors and try to decipher which ones are true and which ones are false.

David Bailey is a Lock to the Jets at No. 2

24 hours before the draft, we usually have a good idea who is going to go fourth overall. But not this year. The New York Jets have seemingly gone back and forth between Arvell Reese and David Bailey, but right now it appears they’re leaning towards Bailey. League-wide expectation has gradually tilted in Bailey’s direction over the past week, with multiple mock-draft roundups and team-source reporting pointing to him as the most “plug-and-play” defender available at No. 2, though notably, none of that movement has reached true consensus status.

Pretty much everyone’s final mocks have Bailey going second overall, but is it all a smokescreen? That possibility feels very real this year, especially because ESPN’s draft predictor models have still leaned toward Reese as the more likely selection at No. 2, highlighting just how split the evaluation remains even inside analytic projections. I understand they need a pure pass rusher, but to me, Reese is the better prospect. He has the upside of a Micah Parsons off the edge, and that comparison isn’t just stylistic hype. Reese’s value comes from the same positional elasticity that lets defenses disguise pressure without substituting personnel, something modern NFL coordinators prioritize heavily in early top-five selections.

In my eyes, Reese is the safer prospect because if he doesn’t work as a full-time edge, he can do so many other things that it doesn’t really matter. That flexibility matters even more for a roster like the Jets’, which ranked in the bottom half of the league defensively last season and still lacks a true second-level disruptor who can affect plays across all three downs rather than only in pass-rush situations. Bailey has a ton of upside, but if he doesn’t hit, there’s no fallback plan. He led the nation in sacks last season and clearly offers the cleaner projection as an immediate pressure generator, but questions about his run defense and overall three-down profile are exactly why this decision hasn’t fully settled inside league circles.

And the Jets need more than just an edge, so getting a guy that can rush the passer, drop back in coverage, and defend the run would benefit them more than just getting an edge. Reese’s hybrid deployment history at Ohio State, standing up on the edge one snap, flowing downhill the next, and occasionally carrying coverage responsibilities, gives him multiple pathways to impact early, even if his edge transition takes time. 

I’m not saying these insiders are wrong, but I wouldn’t rule out Reese at No. 2 overall. In fact, the strongest signal coming out of the final week before the draft hasn’t been certainty. Even cancelled visits, shifting betting odds, and conflicting insider projections have all pointed toward one thing: the Jets’ board at No. 2 hasn’t leaked in a way that usually happens when a pick is truly locked in. It’s probably 70 percent Bailey, 30 percent Reese.

Verdict: Fiction

The Cardinals Are the Team to Beat For Ty Simpson

Ty Simpson is one of the most divisive players in this draft class. The Alabama quarterback is considered the second-best QB in the class, but there’s a big debate about whether or not he’ll go in the first round, and who will take him. That uncertainty isn’t unusual for QB2 in a class with only one clear franchise-level consensus prospect at the top, once Fernando Mendoza comes off the board, the league’s evaluation of the remaining quarterbacks spreads out quickly, and Simpson sits right at the center of that divide.

Right now, the Arizona Cardinals are the overwhelming favorites to select Simpson. On FanDuel, the Cardinals are at -170 to select Simpson, with the next closest team being the New York Jets at +470. That’s a pretty big discrepancy, so unless the Cardinals are just playing everyone for a fool, they’re going to end up with Simpson. Those odds have stayed surprisingly stable across sportsbooks during draft week, which usually signals consistent league expectation rather than late-cycle speculation noise. Even DraftKings and FOX Sports betting boards have continued listing Arizona as the most likely landing spot despite their pick sitting outside the obvious Simpson range.

Now it’s just a question of where. They’re not going to take him at No. 3, but do they try to do the same thing the New York Giants did last year and trade back into the first round to select him? Right now, they have the No. 34 pick, right behind the Jets at No. 33, so if they want to make sure they get him, they may have to move up. That exact draft slot matters more than it usually would because multiple projections place Simpson in the late-first-round window rather than the true top-half of Round 1, which makes Arizona’s position at No. 34 unusually strategic rather than inconvenient. Plus, getting back into the first round gets you the fifth-year option, which is extremely valuable, especially on quarterbacks. For teams unsure whether a quarterback is a long-term answer, that fifth-year option effectively becomes a low-risk evaluation extension, and it’s one of the biggest reasons franchises regularly trade up from the early second round into picks 25-32 for developmental starters.

So yes, I believe the Cardinals are the team to beat for Simpson, but I’ll be fascinated to see where they take him. Unless Arizona shocks everyone by reaching No. 3, which most draft intel suggests is unlikely, the cleaner outcome still looks like a late-Round-1 trade-up scenario that mirrors how quarterback-needy teams have handled similar QB2 situations in recent drafts.

Verdict: Fact

There Will be Three or More Trades in the Top-10

There’s been a ton of talk about trades in this draft. The Arizona Cardinals and Cleveland Browns both seem hellbent on trading back, but there are some other sneaky candidates. The Washington Commanders could move back a few spots and try to take Carnell Tate if one of the top defenders slips. The New York Giants could also move back from No. 10 if they want to target a tackle and someone is sliding. There’s a lot of potential for trades, but will we see three in the top-10? The rumor itself makes sense on the surface because multiple teams picking early are signaling flexibility rather than commitment to a single prospect, but flexibility alone rarely translates into multiple executed deals inside the top-10 unless a quarterback run forces urgency across the board.

I don’t think so. I would love to see it, but it takes two to tango, and unless there’s a big run on offensive tackles early (which would probably only happen if the Cardinals and Browns didn’t trade back, eliminating two trade spots already), I don’t see teams wanting to move up for many of these prospects. Historically, early-top-10 trade activity spikes almost exclusively in quarterback-heavy classes, and this draft doesn’t profile that way after Fernando Mendoza comes off the board, which naturally limits the number of teams willing to pay a premium to climb the board. Recent draft trends back that up. Most classes average one or two trades inside the top-10, not three or more, unless multiple QB-needy teams are competing for the same tier of passer.

David Bailey and Arvell Reese would be two names that would demand a lot of trade attention should they fall, but there isn’t a world where both of them get past the second pick. Sonny Styles and Caleb Downs are two more who could be targeted, but I doubt both of them (if either of them) get past No. 5. And that’s really the key limitation here. The defenders expected to generate aggressive movement are clustered so high on consensus boards that the realistic trade window behind them becomes smaller than the rumor cycle suggests. Once those top hybrid defenders come off the board, the incentive to jump multiple spots drops quickly.

As I said, it takes two to tango, so while there might be a lot of interest, I just don’t see three or more teams making a big move for the players in this draft class. Without a second quarterback tier forcing panic trades or a clear offensive tackle scarcity cliff forming earlier than expected, the conditions that usually produce multiple top-10 deals just aren’t present in this class. There just isn’t enough top-end talent to warrant it.

Verdict: Fiction

Jermod McCoy Will Fall to the Second Round

Jermod McCoy’s knee situation doesn’t seem great. Many teams are expecting him to have to get another surgery before he’s ready to play, so in the last week he’s gone from potentially a top-12 pick to possibly falling out of the first round. But I don’t think he makes it quite that far. Medical uncertainty has definitely reshaped the conversation around him, especially after he missed the entire 2025 season with a torn ACL, but league scouting reports have consistently maintained that his 2024 tape alone still grades at a clear first-round level if teams are comfortable with the recovery timeline.

There’s a real chance McCoy makes it through the first 28 picks, but when you look at the four teams picking 29-32, I just don’t see him getting by all of them. The Kansas City Chiefs at No. 29 really need cornerback help after losing Jaylen Watson and Trent McDuffie this offseason. The Miami Dolphins also have a huge need at corner and could take him at No. 30. New England doesn’t need corner, but you know who does? The Seattle Seahawks at No. 32. Late-first-round contenders regularly take swings on high-end defensive backs with medical flags because the positional value at corner still outweighs short-term availability concerns, especially when the alternative is reaching into a thinner second-tier group at the position.

NFL teams have much more information on McCoy’s knee than we do, so it could really be so bad that nobody wants anything to do with him. That uncertainty is exactly why his range has widened this week rather than collapsed entirely; he’s being treated more like a volatility prospect than a true slide candidate.

But if I’m the Chiefs, Dolphins, NS, or Seahawks at the end of the first round and a guy who is a top-10 to top-15 talent in this draft class is still sitting there, you bet I’m taking him. Even with the missed season, several scouting reports still describe him as having CB1-level traits in this class, which makes it difficult to see him clearing four straight teams picking at the back end of Round 1 if their medical evaluations come back even moderately positive.

Verdict: Fiction

The Seahawks Will Trade Out of Pick No. 32

I know I just said the Seahawks would probably take Jermod McCoy if he were sitting there at No. 32, and I stand by that, but there’s still a real chance he’s gone by then, and if he is, the Seahawks could absolutely move out of this pick to add some more draft capital. That possibility becomes even more realistic at the end of Round 1, where teams picking in the early second round frequently try to move up for quarterbacks or fifth-year-option control on developmental prospects, creating natural trade-down opportunities for the team sitting at No. 32.

The Seahawks had one of the most complete rosters in the league last season, but they got hit hard by free agency. Kenneth Walker, Tariq Woolen, Boye Mafe, and Coby Bryant all walked, and they didn’t bring in any impactful players. That kind of roster turnover is exactly the scenario where front offices typically prioritize volume over position, especially when the remaining players on the board project more as tier-cluster prospects than clear Round-1 difference-makers.

I don’t think they expected to lose as many players as they did, and they only have four draft picks in this draft. That was initially done by design, since they don’t believe this class is super deep, but now that they have a bunch of holes, they need more picks. Teams entering a draft with limited selections almost always become trade-down candidates late in Round 1, particularly contenders trying to restock multiple depth positions rather than target one headline starter. Seattle’s current pick inventory makes it one of the clearest examples of that profile this year.

If McCoy is there or they really love one of the edge rushers or guards, they could make the pick, but I feel like there’s a better chance they move back than actually make a pick at No. 32. Unless a sliding first-round grade unexpectedly reaches them, which is usually the only scenario where Super Bowl-level rosters stay put at Pick 32, the leverage of controlling the final selection of Day 1 makes trading back one of the most logical outcomes available to Seattle. Could be an exciting end to the night.

Verdict: Fact

Peter Woods will be a first-round pick

A lot of final mocks have Peter Woods going towards the end of the first round, but I just don’t see it. This defensive tackle class is very thin, and Kayden McDonald is a much better prospect in my eyes. Most consensus big boards still place Woods in the late-Round-1 to early-Round-2 range rather than firmly inside the top-32, which suggests his projection into the first round is being driven more by positional scarcity than by universal first-round grades across scouting departments.

And now that there’s a good chance we see eight or more offensive linemen go in round one (more on that in a second), I see him getting pushed further and further down the board. Interior defensive linemen who rely more on projection than production are often the first players squeezed when offensive tackle runs begin earlier than expected, especially in classes where teams prioritize trench protection over interior disruption upside.

I don’t understand the Peter Woods infatuation. He’s viewed as this explosive athlete, but I don’t think he tested particularly well in the drills that he did do (he didn’t do many of them), and he weighed in at 300+ pounds. Just how explosive can you be at that weight? Even his pre-draft testing profile reinforced the uncertainty around his athletic ceiling rather than clarifying it, which is usually what teams want from borderline first-round defensive tackles late in the process.

And on top of that, it’s not like he put that athleticism to use in a weaker-than-usual ACC conference. He only had three sacks in 2024 and two in 2025. For comparison, most interior defensive linemen who climb securely into Round 1 territory either dominate with disruption metrics or test as clear outliers athletically. Woods hasn’t cleanly checked either box, which explains why teams still appear split on whether his upside outweighs the production gap.

If Woods goes in the first round, it’s because a team believes in his athletic traits and that they can develop him. That type of projection-based selection does happen late on Day 1, but it usually requires stronger testing confirmation than Woods provided this spring. I just don’t see him ever being good enough to warrant a first-round pick, but I’m not a GM.

Verdict: Fiction

Nine or More Offensive Linemen Will Go in Round 1

This class is very top-heavy at offensive tackle. There are six or seven really good ones, but after that, there’s a steep drop-off. Same thing at guard. There are four that are in a tier of their own, but after they’re gone, it’s slim pickings. That tier separation is exactly what typically drives early positional runs. Once teams believe a protection cliff is approaching, they start selecting offensive linemen earlier than their overall board rank might otherwise justify.

Since offensive linemen are so valuable, this means we’re going to see a run of tackles and guards at some point in the draft. It’s not a matter of if, but when. Francis Mauigoa and Spencer Fano will probably come off the board in the top-10, but after that, Olaivavega Ioane, Kadyn Proctor, Monroe Freeling, Max Iheanachor, Blake Miller, Caleb Lomu, Emmanuel Pregnon, Chase Bisontis, and Keylan Rutledge could all come off the board before the end of the night. Multiple sportsbooks and mock-draft aggregation models are already projecting unusually heavy offensive line volume on Day 1, largely because protection needs across the league currently outnumber first-round defensive tackle and linebacker needs in this class.

I don’t think all 11 of those guys will come off the board in round one. A couple of them will probably slide into day two, but I expect at least nine of them to be selected on Thursday night. Historically, offensive line totals increase in classes where the tackle tier is viewed as starter-ready early, and this year’s group fits that profile more closely than most recent drafts.

Verdict: Fact