NFL free agency is basically over. There are still a lot of players left on the market, but almost all the top guys have signed with their new teams, so we have a pretty good idea of where everyone stands as we head into draft season.

There were a lot of overreactions to free agency. Is J.J. McCarthy’s time in Minnesota coming to a close? Have the Dallas Cowboys done enough to be a serious playoff threat? Did the Indianapolis Colts overpay for Alec Pierce and Daniel Jones?

I answer all of that and more in our post-free agency overreactions.

J.J. McCarthy’s Time in Minnesota is Coming to a Close

The beginning of J.J. McCarthy’s career has been plagued by bad injuries and inconsistent play, and it’s caused many to wonder if he’s the future of the Minnesota Vikings. There was speculation that the Vikings could add a veteran quarterback to challenge McCarthy in 2026, but after they signed Kyler Murray to a one-year deal, it’s time to ask whether or not McCarthy’s time in Minnesota is coming to an end.

Verdict: Not an overreaction

This is not a great look for McCarthy. Many thought they’d bring in a veteran who could battle McCarthy in camp, but ultimately end up being his backup, but by signing Murray, it shows that Kevin O’Connell may not even want McCarthy to start in 2026.

Murray was probably the best quarterback available in free agency. He’s had some injuries in recent years, but he’s young, and when he’s been on the field, he has produced. More importantly, he’s a dual threat. He can beat you with his arm and his legs, and he’s exactly the kind of quarterback Kevin O’Connell could have a lot of fun with.

I’m sure Minnesota will enter the offseason saying it will be a battle between the two for a starting spot, but don’t be shocked if Murray wins the job. You don’t bring someone like him in to sit on the bench the whole year.

He definitely wouldn’t go somewhere he didn’t fully believe he could be the starter. I’m not saying any guarantees were made, but I struggle seeing Murray go to Minnesota just to sit on the bench when he could’ve gone to plenty of other places and been the starter.

So what does Minnesota do with McCarthy? Do they hold onto him if he loses the starting job? Do they try to get something for him in a trade? I don’t know, but I doubt McCarthy is on this team in 2027, especially if Murray plays well.

Tua Tagovailoa Will Revive His Career in Atlanta

In 2023, Tua Tagovailoa gave the Miami Dolphins reason to believe he could be a superstar. In his fourth year in the league, he threw for 4,624 yards and 29 touchdowns and earned a four-year, $212 million deal. However, in the two years since then, Tagovailoa’s production has fallen off a cliff, and he’s dealt with a ton of injuries, including multiple concussions, which led to him being released by the Dolphins. Now, he’s signed a one-year deal with the Atlanta Falcons, and many are wondering if he can revive his career in Atlanta.

Verdict: Overreaction

There’s a reason Tua’s stats have fallen off over the last two years, and it’s not because of his injuries. Sure, they’ve played a role, but he just isn’t a great quarterback. He’s undersized and has a mediocre arm, and if he can’t be deadly accurate, he’s not going to be very efficient.

I don’t think the Falcons think Michael Penix will be ready for Week 1, so Tua is going to have to come out the gates hot if he wants to prove he should be the starter for the full year, but I just don’t see that happening. He’s coming off a year where he threw 20 touchdowns to 15 interceptions and had his lowest completion percentage since 2022. He did that with a healthy Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane.

The Falcons’ offense is better on paper with Drake London, Bijan Robinson, and Kyle Pitts, but he has to build new connections with those players and learn a new system. Usually, it takes a player a couple of weeks to really get going with his new teammates, but if Tua only has a few weeks to prove himself before Penix returns, he’s going to have to adapt immediately.

I just don’t see that happening, so I think Tua’s career as a starter is coming to a close.

The Cowboys Will Make the Playoffs in 2026 With a Revamped Defense

The Dallas Cowboys had one of the best offenses in the league last year, but they missed the playoffs because of their terrible defense. They’ve made some moves to revamp their defense, including trading for Rashan Gary and signing Jalen Thompson in free agency, but is it enough to get back in the playoffs?

Verdict: Overreaction…for now

If the season started today, their defense is not good enough to make the playoffs. Rashan Gary and Jalen Thompson will improve their pass rush and secondary, but there are still some massive holes on this roster. They need another pass rusher, at least one cornerback, and a linebacker, but they still have time to fill those holes.

With two first-round picks and a pretty deep defensive draft class, the Cowboys are in a prime position to add a couple of game changers. At No. 12, they could get someone like Mansoor Delane, Jermod McCoy, Avieon Terrell or Keldric Faulk, and at No. 20, they could come back with a corner/linebacker/edge rusher (whichever they didn’t address with their first pick).

Both guys they draft in the first-round should be able to start right away, and if they nail it, they could push them over the edge and get them back to the postseason.

Kenneth Walker Makes Chiefs a Super Bowl Contender

The Kansas City Chiefs went from Super Bowl runners-up to 6-11 in just one season. The Chiefs had a top-five scoring defense, but their offense finished 20th in the league, scoring 21.3 points per game. They’ve lacked a consistent run game for years now, so they went out and signed the top running back available, Kenneth Walker. So, with the addition of Walker, are the Chiefs Super Bowl contenders once again?

Verdict: Overreaction

Yes, the Chiefs filled a huge hole on their roster by signing Walker, but they are not ready to be Super Bowl contenders again. First of all, there’s no guarantee Patrick Mahomes is ready by the beginning of the season. He tore his ACL late in the year and could very well miss the first month of the year, which would put Justin Fields in line to start.

Second, the Chiefs still have some holes offensively. Rashee Rice’s future is in question with his legal issues, so they absolutely need to add another receiver in the draft. The Chiefs also gave up the 10th-most sacks in the league last year, and they let Jawaan Taylor walk. There is no big hole at tackle that they’ve yet to fill.

Defensively, they’re not perfect either. They lost their two best cornerbacks, Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, this offseason, so they have to replace them. I would be they do so with the No. 9 pick, but they didn’t sign anyone in free agency, so do they take two in the draft?

There are still just too many holes on this roster for me to believe they’ll be Super Bowl contenders again in 2026.

The Rams Are Super Bowl Favorites

The Los Angeles Rams were very close to making the Super Bowl in 2026, but they came up just short against their NFC West rivals, the Seattle Seahawks. They had one glaring need at cornerback, and they’ve done an excellent job of addressing it by trading for Trent McDuffie and signing Jaylen Watson. They now have a lockdown CB1 and his former teammate, who hasn’t allowed a touchdown in two years, so are the Rams Super Bowl favorites?

Verdict: Not an overreaction

The Rams are absolutely the Super Bowl favorites right now. They hardly lost anybody to free agency, filled their biggest need with two premium players, and still hold the 13th pick in the draft. If they land someone like Monroe Freeling, Francis Mauigoa, Carnell Tate, Makai Lemon, or Jordyn Tyson in the first round, this offense would be even better than the one that finished No. 1 in scoring last season.

Defensively, the Rams played really well early, but faded late. They have a great pass rush with Jared Verse and Byron Young, they brought back their linebacker core of Omar Speights and Nate Landman, and now they have two elite cornerbacks. Plus, they retained Chris Shula as defensive coordinator. There’s no reason they shouldn’t be much improved defensively in 2026.

With their main rivals in the NFC, the Seahawks losing a ton of players and not signing many in free agency (plus they only have four draft picks), the Rams should absolutely be the favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. The AFC has some threats, but in my opinion, the Rams are the best team in the league after free agency.

The Colts Overpaid For Alec Pierce and Daniel Jones

The Indianapolis Colts didn’t sign many outside free agents, but they brought back two of the biggest names on the free agent market in Alec Pierce and Daniel Jones. Many think they overpaid. Pierce got a four-year, $114 million deal, while Jones got a two-year, $88 million deal. So the question is, did the Colts actually overpay? Or did they get fair value?

Verdict: Not an overreaction

Starting with Pierce, the Colts made him the 11th-highest-paid receiver in the league. At $28.5 million per year, he’s sandwiched between Jaylen Waddle and Tee Higgins. I honestly don’t think this is as bad a contract as some are making it seem. You’re always going to overpay in free agency, knowing that in a year or two, the deal will look much better.

By the time Pierce is two years into this deal, his $28.5 million is probably going to be 20th in the league or something like that. He’s not as good as some of the other receivers he’s around, but in two years, this deal won’t look that big. Still, it’s an overpay for now.

Daniel Jones’ deal is worse, in my opinion. At $44 million, Jones is making $4 million more than Matthew Stafford, $10.5 million more than Sam Darnold, and just $1 million less than Patrick Mahomes. But that’s not even the worst part. He’s had two good seasons in his career, and he’s coming off a torn Achilles. The last time a guy coming off a torn Achilles got a big contract was Kirk Cousins, and we’ve seen how that played out.

I’m fine with them paying Jones and Pierce, but they overpaid for both of them. Hopefully, it works out, but those two are eating up a good chunk of the salary cap for the next two years.

The Panthers Will Repeat As NFC South Champions

The Carolina Panthers won the NFC South for the first time in a decade last season, and now they’ve put together a really strong offseason. The Panthers signed Jaelan Phillips, Devin Lloyd, and Rasheed Walker in free agency to fill some massive holes on their roster, but they’re also going to play a much tougher schedule, and other teams in their division got better. So, should they really be NFC South favorites?

Verdict: Not an overreaction

I think the New Orleans Saints got much better this offseason, but they won’t be the Panthers’ only challengers. The Falcons have a solid core, and if they can get solid quarterback play from Michael Penix or Tua Tagovailoa, they could be a solid team. There’s also Tampa, which won four straight NFC South titles from 2021 to 2024, but they seem to be on a downward trajectory.

Even though I think the other three teams in the NFC South could win it, the Panthers should be the favorites. They won it last year, and they only got better this offseason. Phillips and Lloyd fill two massive holes at defensive end and linebacker, and now they have a really solid option at tackle with Rasheed Walker.

I do think the Panthers need to add another playmaker or two in the draft, preferably at tight end and running back, so if they can do that, there’s no reason Carolina can’t win the NFC South in 2026.