As we head into the middle third of the 2025 NFL schedule, this is the time when the contenders and pretenders truly reveal themselves. 

And part of that reveal is taking a look at how the teams survived tough stretches of opponents and what’s ahead.

That’s what we’re trying to achieve with the EssentiallySports Next 5 Index. We take a weekly look at what the road ahead looks like for all 32 teams, specifically focusing on each team’s next five games.

It’s always struck me how the discussion of toughest schedules is so often based on what we thought going into the season. Yes, we at times will give a measure of a team’s strength of schedule, but we at ES wanted to create a more dynamic measurement. That’s the goal with the Next 5 Index.

Take the Los Angeles Rams, for example. When we first took this on in Week 3, the Rams ranked as the No. 1 toughest schedule over their next five games. Now, the Rams have survived the hardest stretch and some of the opponents have not performed as well as we first thought. So they currently sit pretty much in the middle of the index at No. 15.

The Philadelphia Eagles saw the wildest swing in our index, dropping 13 spots in our index. That’s welcome next for Philly fans who are looking for schedule relief as the team tries to end their first two-game losing streak since 2023.

Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills are our biggest mover up the index. They have gone from the easiest five weeks ahead in the NFL in Week 3 to a current ranking of No. 17 on the index.

That was a 10-spot swing in one week – not great news for Bills Mafia also looking to end a two-game slide. (Thankfully, a bye this week gives the Bills more time to regroup.)

Next 5: An explainer of the numbers that caught your attention

“What in the world have you unleashed on the NFL world?”

That was the question we received over and over again throughout the week after we released our initial Next 5 Index, which tracks the strength of every team’s schedule over the next five games.

The sports media world has a certain herd mentality. So, when new metrics are introduced, the establishment is always resistant, while diehards, thirsty for next-level ways to talk up their team at their local sports bar, are curious but equally unsure.

Not so with our Next 5. We have received over 200 DMs and emails from around the NFL universe. A lot of you hit me up saying, “Why hasn’t this been out there before? This makes so much sense.”

To be fair, there are similar metrics out there, like Pro Football Focus’ strength of schedule measure. However, there is nothing like our UberRank, which compiles the most trusted team power rankings on the Web. We use the average of all those rankings as the base to create a team ranking.

From there, it’s a lot of concocting in our NFL stats laboratory. We factor in divisional matchups being more important, national spotlight games, bye weeks, and major injuries around the league. Jumble all of it together, and we land on a Next 5 index number for each team.

You’ll want to take a deeper dive into the Week 7 NFL Power UberRankings. 

Let’s start with the easiest schedules for Weeks 7 through 11.

The Cakewalk 4

32. CHICAGO BEARS

Record: 3-2

Next 5 Index: 23.72

Last week: 22.32 (31)

The upcoming schedule: Week 7 vs. Saints, Week 8 at Ravens, Week 9 at Bengals, Week 10 vs. Giants, Week 11 at Vikings

The Bears have not moved out of the basement of schedule strength since we began this measure in Week 3. Taking their Week 6 opponent, the Commanders, off the front end and adding their Week 11 opponent on to the back end is about a wash – thusly not a lot of movement on the index.

31. CLEVELAND BROWNS

Record: 1-5

Next 5 Index: 22.04

Last week: 20.56 (29)

The upcoming schedule: Week 7 vs. Dolphins, Week 8 at Patriots, Week 9 BYE, Week 10 at Jets, Week 11 vs. Ravens

The Browns head into the AFC East swing of their schedule with their next three opponents in the division before heading back to division play in Week 11.

30. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Record: 4-2

Next 5 Index: 21.16

Last week: 21.0 (30)

The upcoming schedule: Week 7 at Titans, Week 8 vs. Browns, Week 9 vs. Falcons, Week 10 at Bucs, Week 11 vs. Jets (TNF)

The narrative around the Pats has been the easy schedule they have as they try to return to league relevance. Mike Vrabel’s crew caught our eye with the win over the Bills and are now in the middle of a three-game stretch of winnable games (or trap games if you view them as a contender).

Their ability to take care of business against those seen as below them and how they fare against the NFC South elite at the back end of this stretch will make it clear just how legit the Pats’ playoff chances are.

29. BALTIMORE RAVENS

Record: 1-5

Next 5 Index: 20.92

Last week: 17.82 (23)

The upcoming schedule: Week 7 BYE, Week 8 vs. Bears, Week 9 at Dolphins (TNF). Week 10 at Vikings, Week 11 at Browns

There are reasons why Vegas still sees this team as contenders in the AFC North. First, they have the toughest part of their schedule in the rear-view mirror. They were No. 2 in our index in Week 3.

Second, they have five games left in division to change their fate, including at the back end of this stretch at Cleveland.

Slightly Less Easy Quartet

28. DENVER BRONCOS

Record: 4-2

Next 5 Index: 19.56

Last week: 24.9 (32)

The upcoming schedule: Week 7 vs. Giants, Week 8 vs. Cowboys, Week 9 at Texans, Week 10 vs. Raiders, Week 11 vs. Chiefs

Adding a divisional opponent in the Chiefs on the back end of their next 5 accounts for the Broncos rise up the index. 

If we purely look at momentum around teams, this is a brutal stretch for the Broncos. Four of these five teams feel like potential losses on paper. If it is truly worst-case scenario, the Week 12 bye can’t come quick enough.

27. NEW YORK JETS

Record: 0-6

Next 5 Index: 19.44

Last week: 19.62 (28)

The upcoming schedule: Week 7 vs. Panthers, Week 8 at Bengals, Week 9 BYE, Week 10 vs. Browns, Week 11 at Patriots (TNF)

This is the one bit of mildly good news for the Jets. But like the Broncos, while their index number is among the softest schedules, their opponents all have far more mojo going their way at the moment.

26. DALLAS COWBOYS

Record: 2-3-1

Next 5 Index: 17.32

Last week: 16.32 (19)

The upcoming schedule:, Week 7 vs. Commanders, Week 8 at Broncos, Week 9 vs. Cardinals (MNF), Week 10 BYE, Week 11 at Raiders (MNF)

The Cowboys slipped down our index this week, a welcome sign for the fanbase. Just one division game in this stretch and opponents seen as winnable games sandwiched between their Week 10 bye.

25. MIAMI DOLPHINS

Record: 1-5

Next 5 Index: 17.24

Last week: 16.02 (18)

The upcoming schedule: Week 7 at Browns, Week 8 vs. Falcons, Week 9 vs. Ravens (TNF), Week 10 vs. Bills. Week 11 vs. Commanders (London)

Last week was the peak of five-game difficulty for the Dolphins in our index thus far. A Week 12 bye followed by the Saints and Jets will give Mike McDaniel s strong chance to solidify his job if he survives past the bye.

On the way to mediocre competition

24. GREEN BAY PACKERS

Record: 3-1-1

Next 5 Index: 16.86

Last week: 16.74 (20)

The upcoming schedule: Week 7 at Arizona Cardinals, Week 8 at Steelers, Week 9 vs. Panthers, Week 10 vs. Eagles (MNF), Week 11 at Giants

The Packers peaked at No. 20 last week. They should continue rising the rankings at NFC opponents will get added to their index the next three weeks. If the Pack are who the experts think they are, this should be a 4-1 stretch.

23. CAROLINA PANTHERS

Record: 3-3

Next 5 Index: 16.76

Last week: 17.82 (24)

The upcoming schedule: Week 7 at New York Jets, Week 8 vs. Bills, Week 9 at Packers, Week 10 vs. Saints, Week 11 at Falcons

Enjoy the optimism for now, Panthers fans. You may get over .500 this week, but from there, you have one of the most difficult schedules in the league to end the season. Anything 2-3 or better in this run keeps them in divisional contention.

22. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Record: 4-2

Next 5 Index: 16.64

Last week: 14.76 (14)

The upcoming schedule: Week 7 vs. Falcons (SNF), Week 8 at Texans, Week 9 at Giants, Week 10 vs. Rams, Week 11 at Cardinals

The 49ers are slowly getting their stars back on the field, and they got an eight-spot drop in the index this week as added relief for fans.

This is a brutal four-week run against teams on the come up. If they can get through this 2-3, a four-week stretch from Weeks 12 through 15 should give them a chance to regain momentum.

21. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Record: 4-2

Next 5 Index: 15.52

Last week: 12.78 (9)

The upcoming schedule: Week 7 vs. Texans, Week 8 BYE, Week 9 at Commanders (SNF), Week 10 vs. Cardinals, Week 11 at Rams

Simply taking the Buccaneers off their five-game window accounts for the significant drop down the index this week. There are three games here with high percentages of a loss. That makes a Week 7 win over Houston imperative.

Into the top 20 we go

20. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Record: 5-1

Next 5 Index: 15.48

Last week: 18.58 (26)

The upcoming schedule: Week 7 at Chargers, Week 8 vs. Titans, Week 9 at Steelers, Week 10 vs. Falcons (London), Week 11 BYE

Just one lowly divisional opponent in this stretch to go with three teams that will highly test this team’s contender status. One ominous note: The Colts finishing schedule from Weeks 12 through 18 is currently among the top 5 hardest in the league.

19. CINCINNATI BENGALS

Record: 3-4

Next 5 Index: 15.38

Last week: 16.84 (21)

The upcoming schedule: Week 8 vs. Jets, Week 9 vs. Bears, Week 10 BYE, Week 11 at Steelers

This is Cincy’s best shot to get firmly back above .500. Their Week 12 through 15 stretch (v. Pats, at Ravens on Thanksgiving, at Bills, vs. Ravens) is wicked.

18. ATLANTA FALCONS

Record: 3-2

Next 5 Index: 14.86

Last week: 11.38 (6)

The upcoming schedule: Week 7 at 49ers (SNF), Week 8 vs. Dolphins, Week 9 at Patriots, Week 10 at Colts (London), Week 11 vs. Panthers

A big slide in the index by replacing the Bills with the Panthers. If the Falcons are contenders, this should be a 3-2 stretch at least.

17. BUFFALO BILLS

Record: 4-2

Next 5 Index: 14.78

Last week: 19.22 (27)

The upcoming schedule: Week 7 Bye, Week 8 at Panthers, Week 9 at Chiefs, Week 10 at Dolphins, Week 11 vs. Bucs

The truth is given the ease of the schedule, the Bills should be 6-0 if they are who we thought they were. The schedule just keeps getting harder from here on out.

Into the top half of hard

16. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Record: 4-2

Next 5 Index: 14.48

Last week: 18.18 (25)

The upcoming schedule: Week 7 vs. Colts, Week 8 vs. Vikings (TNF), Week 9 at Titans, Week 10 vs. Steelers (SNF), Week 11 at Jaguars

The same can be said for the Chargers. They should be 6-0 but are lucky to be 4-2 after a two-point win in Miami last week. The schedule gets more brutal week by week from here.

15. LOS ANGELES RAMS

Record: 4-2

Next 5 Index: 14.48

Last week: 15.78 (15)

The upcoming schedule: Week 7 at Jaguars (London), Week 8 BYE, Week 9 vs. Saints, Week 10 at 49ers, Week 11 vs. Seahawks

The only good news ahead schedule-wise is two games against the Cardinals over the last five games. Otherwise, it’s just one long gauntlet for the Rams (including a Week 9 trap game coming out of the bye.

14. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Record: 3-3

Next 5 Index: 13.86

Last week: 11.12 (5)

The upcoming schedule: Week 7 vs. Raiders, Week 8 vs. Commanders (MNF), Week 9 at Bills, Week 10 BYE, Week 11 at Broncos

The Chiefs have to win out in their five remaining division games. Because five of their six non-division opponents are all playoff contenders.

13. HOUSTON TEXANS

Record: 2-3

Next 5 Index: 13.44

Last week: 10.26 (3)

The upcoming schedule: Week 7 at Seahawks (MNF), Week 8 vs. 49ers, Week 9 vs. Broncos, Week 10 vs. Jaguars, Week 11 at Titans

Adding the Titans on to the back end of their sked caused the index dip. If the Texans go 5-0 over this stretch, I’m ready to … tell them they have three more brutal games Weeks 12 through 14. 

No schedule favors ahead

12. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

Record: 3-3

Next 5 Index: 13.04

Last week: 11.84 (8)

The upcoming schedule: Week 7 at Cowboys, Week 8 at Chiefs (MNF), Week 9 vs. Seahawks, Week 10 vs. Lions, Week 11 at Dolphins (London)

The Commanders better take care of business this week or they are in real dangers of being 3-7 and irrelevant as they head to London.

11. PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Record: 4-2

Next 5 Index: 12.90

Last week: 13.66 (12)

The upcoming schedule: Week 8 vs. Packers (SNF), Week 9 vs. Colts, Week 10 at Chargers (SNF), Week 11 vs. Bengals, Week 12 at Bears

Given this team’s inconsistency, coming out of this stretch at 6-5 would be a victory. They absolutely must avenge Thursday’s loss in Week 11 or they could be quickly headed to the middle of the AFC North.

10. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Record: 5-1

Next 5 Index: 12.58

Last week: 12.8 (10)

The upcoming schedule: Week 7 at Lions (MNF), Week 8 at Saints, Week 9 BYE, Week 10 vs. Patriots, Week 11 at Bills

Why are we so high on the Bucs? For one, the schedule has been right around the 7-10 toughness range throughout and they’re still 5-1. So now what? Three more playoff contenders on tap in this stretch. Oof.

9. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Record: 4-2

Next 5 Index: 12.48

Last week: 17.68 (22)

The upcoming schedule: Week 7 at Vikings, Week 8 vs. Giants, Week 9 BYE, Week 10 at Packers (MNF), Week 11 vs. Lions (SNF)

All the indicators are tough for the Eagles right now. Bad mojo and a vicious schedule could leave this team at 5-5 after this stretch.

On the cusp of brutal

8. TENNESSEE TITANS

Record: 1-5

Next 5 Index: 12.46

Last week: 15.88 (16)

The upcoming schedule: Week 7 vs. Patriots, Week 8 at Colts, Week 9 vs. Chargers, Week 10 BYE, Week 11 vs. Texans

This team is headed toward a head-on collision with a tough choice. There is no relief in this schedule that could have them headed back to a No. 1 draft pick. So do you punt on Cam Ward and go for a QB again with a new coach? Sadly, that’s where the Titans are right now.

7. MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Record: 3-2

Next 5 Index: 12.16

Last week: 10.24 (2)

The upcoming schedule: Week 7 vs. Eagles, Week 8 at Chargers, Week 9 at Lions, Week 10 vs. Ravens, Week 11 vs. Bears

The schedule technically gets a little easier for the Vikings. But wow, my most optimistic view of this stretch is two wins. I like the Vikings, so I look forward to them proving me wrong. Because if they can’t accomplish that here, I don’t see another sure-fire win on their schedule to end the season.

6. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

Record: 2-4

Next 5 Index: 12.06

Last week: 14.44 (13)

The upcoming schedule: Week 7 at Chiefs, Week 8 BYE, Week 9 vs. Jaguars, Week 10 at Broncos (TNF), Week 11 vs. Cowboys (MNF)

So your team lacks identity, you can’t keep your best offensive player (Brock Bowers) on the field and your schedule only keeps getting harder? At this rate, it’s hard to see Geno Smith as the QB or Pete Carroll as the coach after 2025.

5. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Record: 4-2

Next 5 Index: 11.88

Last week: 15.98 (17)

The upcoming schedule: Week 7 vs. Rams in London, Week 8 BYE, Week 9 at Raiders, Week 10 at Texans, Week 11 vs. Chargers

This is why we really wanted to see the Jags beat the Seahawks at home. This feels like a 1-3 stretch. The good news is that Weeks 12 through 18 get MUCH easier for Liam Coen’s crew. So if they can tread water and finish these five at 6-4, a 10-win season should be a lock. It will all come down to what they can do against the Colts.

Introducing the Fiercest Four

4. ARIZONA CARDINALS

Record: 2-4

Next 5 Index: 11.66

Last week: 11.46 (7)

The upcoming schedule: Week 7 vs. Packers, Week 8 BYE, Week 9 at Cowboys (MNF), Week 10 at Seahawks, Week 11 vs. 49ers

This is why most of the NFL world has moved on from Arizona. They lost four games by four points or less, and now their schedule has them headed toward No. 1 pick competition. And if that plays out, they will likely punt on Kyler Murray and go QB.

3. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Record: 1-5

Next 5 Index: 11.56

Last week: 13.60 (11)

The upcoming schedule: Week 7 at Bears, Week 8 vs. Bucs, Week 9 at Rams, Week 10 at Panthers, Week 11 BYE

What is your reward for being one of the best 1-5 teams I have seen in the league in some time? A continued kick in the nether region from the schedule makers, that’s what. This is the week where the narrative around this team has to change, or they too are headed toward a No. 1 pick battle.

2. DETROIT LIONS

Record: 4-2

Next 5 Index: 10.84

Last week: 10.98 (4)

The upcoming schedule: Week 7 vs. Bucs, Week 8 BYE, Week 9 vs. Vikings, Week 10 at Commanders, Week 11 at Eagles (SNF)

If there is one team I don’t worry about being up to the challenge of a difficult schedule, it’s Dan Campbell’s Lions. That said, WOW. Just the slightest punch from the football gods (i.e. starter injury) and this could be an 0-4 stretch.

1. NEW YORK GIANTS

Record: 2-4

Next 5 Index: 9.92

Last week: 7.48 (1)

The upcoming schedule: Week 7 at Broncos, Week 8 at Eagles, Week 9 vs. 49ers, Week 10 at Bears, Week 11 vs. Packers

Yes, the schedule technically got easier week over week. As great as that win was against the Eagles, the idea of replicating that effort in this stretch of schedule is a pipe dream.