The NFC South has been one of the least-competitive divisions in the NFL over the past few seasons. I mean, in 2025, the Carolina Panthers won the division with a losing record. And that’s not the only time that’s happened recently. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won with an 8-9 record in 2022.

This year, the Panthers are looking to return to the top step and claim the division title for the second year in a row, but with a much harder schedule, will they be able to do it? The New Orleans Saints are making a push to win the division for the first time since 2020, but the Buccaneers and Falcons also look like strong candidates to win the South.

Who will win? That’s what I’m trying to figure out today.

Carolina Panthers

NFC South Odds: +320

2025 Record: 8-9

Despite winning the NFC South in 2025, the Carolina Panthers have the worst odds of any team to win the NFC South. Is that because they’re the least-talented team? No. Far from it, actually. It’s because their schedule is absolutely brutal compared to the rest of the division.

Based on ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Panthers’ schedule is the 13th-toughest in the league. The next closest team in the NFC South is the Buccaneers, who rank 18th in SOS. Behind them are the Falcons (22) and the Saints (30).

While Carolina might have the most talented roster in the South, it’s going to be extremely hard for them to win the division again this year. Bryce Young limits their offense, and while their defense is well above average, they’re going to have to hold teams to something like 18-20 points per game if they want a shot at the division.

On top of that, the Panthers have already suffered a ton of injuries. They’re down two starting tackles, a starting edge rusher, and their third-round receiver. There’s just too much working against Carolina for me to believe they’re going back-to-back.

Record Prediction

vs Chicago Bears – L

at Atlanta Falcons – W

at Cleveland Browns – W

vs Detroit Lions – L

at Philadelphia Eagles – L

vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers – W

at Green Bay Packers – L

vs Denver Broncos – L

at New Orleans Saints – L

vs Baltimore Ravens – L

at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – L

at Minnesota Vikings – W

vs New Orleans Saints – W

vs Cincinnati Bengals – L

at Pittsburgh Steelers – L

vs Seattle Seahawks – L

vs Atlanta Falcons – W

Final Record: 6-11 (4-2)

New Orleans Saints

NFC South Odds: +250

2025 Record: 6-11

The New Orleans Saints are one of the up-and-coming teams in the NFL. They ended last year on a hot streak, winning four of their last five games, and their rookie quarterback, Tyler Shough, looked very strong during that stretch.

The Saints’ goal this offseason was clear. They wanted to get Shough some more weapons, and they absolutely succeeded, signing David Edwards and Travis Etienne in free agency before drafting Jordyn Tyson, Oscar Delp, Bryce Lance and Barion Brown in the NFL Draft. They also retained Alvin Kamara and re-signed Chris Olave to a massive extension, keeping him in New Orleans for the next five years.

Kellen Moore’s offense should be much improved in 2026, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they finish top-10 in scoring.

Defensively, the Saints were pretty average last year, and they lost their leader, Demario Davis, but they replaced him with Kaden Elliss. Other than that, they really didn’t make too many significant changes to their defense, other than drafting Christen Miller in the second round. Losing Bryan Bresee certainly hurt, but they should be right around average in 2026.

I fully believe this offense is capable of carrying this team to 10+ wins, but I was cautiously optimistic when making my record prediction.

Record Prediction

at Detroit Lions – L

at Baltimore Ravens – L

vs Las Vegas Raiders – W

vs Atlanta Falcons – W

vs Minnesota Vikings – L

at New York Giants – W

vs Pittsburgh Steelers – L

vs Cleveland Browns – W

vs Carolina Panthers: W

at Chicago Bears – L

vs Green Bay Packers – W

at Carolina Panthers- L

at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – L

vs Arizona Cardinals – W

at Atlanta Falcons – W

vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers – W

Final Record: 9-8 (4-2)

Atlanta Falcons

NFC South Odds: +300

2025 Record: 8-9

The Atlanta Falcons were a tough one to predict. I really like some of the players they have, especially on the offensive side of the ball with guys like Bijan Robinson and Drake London, but overall, this team doesn’t really inspire me.

First, their quarterback situation isn’t great. Michael Penix Jr. is still recovering from a knee injury, but hasn’t shown a whole lot when he’s been on the field, and Tua Tagovailoa was tossed to the side by Miami and is looking to revive his career (and he’s dealing with back problems). I wouldn’t feel great about either of those guys leading the offense if I were a Falcons fan.

I do like what the Falcons have built defensively, but I don’t think they’re going to be anything incredibly special. Their pass rush should be pretty good, especially if James Pearce plays at all this year, and I like Divine Deablo at linebacker, but I think A.J. Terrell is one of the most overrated cornerbacks in the league, and I don’t love their cornerback room.

This is a very average team, but with no quarterback to elevate them, I think they’re going to underperform this year.

Record Prediction

at Pittsburgh Steelers – W

vs Carolina Panthers – L

at Green Bay Packers – L

at New Orleans Saints – L

vs Baltimore Ravens – L

vs Chicago Bears – L

vs San Francisco 49ers – L

at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – W

vs Cincinnati Bengals – L

vs Kansas City Chiefs – L

at Minnesota Vikings – W

vs Detroit Lions – L

at Cleveland Browns – W

at Washington Commanders – W

vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers – L

vs New Orleans Saints – L

at Carolina Panthers – L

Final Record: 5-12 (1-5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFC South Odds: +200

2025 Record: 8-9

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were kings of the NFC South for four years from 2021 to 2024 until Carolina dethroned them last year, and while they should be competitive again this year, I don’t think they’re going to win it all.

First, Mike Evans is gone, and Vita Vea’s status is uncertain heading into 2026. That’s two of their best players that probably won’t be back this year. On top of that, Baker Mayfield is extremely unhappy with his contract negotiations, but that could also mean he plays his butt off this year, hoping to make a ton of money next offseason.

Defensively, I think Tampa will be good. Rueben Bain Jr. should help them solve their pass rush problems; Josiah Trotter, Christian Rozeboom and Alex Anzalone should improve their linebacker unit that lost Lavonte David, and Keionte Scott should help them in the secondary. They won’t be great, but they’ll be solid.

The Buccaneers are the definition of an average team. 7 to 9 wins feels like a certainty with this team, but after going through their schedule, I have them on the lower end.

Record Prediction

at Cincinnati Bengals – L

vs Cleveland Browns – W

vs Minnesota Vikings – L

vs Green Bay Packers – W

at Dallas Cowboys – W

at Carolina Panthers – L

vs Atlanta Falcons – L

at Chicago Bears – L

at Detroit Lions – L

vs Carolina Panthers – W

vs Los Angeles Chargers – W

at Baltimore Ravens – L

vs New Orleans Saints – W

at Atlanta Falcons – W

vs Los Angeles Rams – L

at New Orleans Saints – L

Final Record: 7-10 (2-4)