1. Sunday’s Divisional Round slate strips the postseason down to pressure and positioning. We have a young quarterback stepping into his first playoff roadblock at Soldier Field, and a surging Texans defense heading into Foxborough with a real chance to flip expectations. Like, Caleb Williams has already shown he won’t shrink under playoff lights, but cold weather and playoff experience loom large against a Rams team carrying both pedigree and uncertainty. And on the AFC side, New England’s home edge and composure face a Houston unit built to dictate terms and shorten games. The margins are thin, and a few matchups could swing the odds and your fantasy lineup with them. But…

If you’re looking to place a wager on any or all of these games, Polymarket is the place to go. They have some of the best and fairest odds out there, so if you want to get the most bang for your buck, go to Polymarket. You can download the app here. 

To help you better, let’s take a look at some of the betting lines and predictions for the Sunday games.

Texans at Patriots

Odds: Texans +163, Patriots -168 

This is my personal favorite and most anticipated game of Sunday. The Houston Texans are on a massive win streak, but they have to go to New England to face the Patriots, who are very dangerous with Drake Maye under center.

After analysis, I think there’s good value in the Texans at +163. That defense is one of the best we’ve seen this decade, ranking near the top of the league in DVOA, opponent EPA, and success rate, and we saw the Patriots struggle to score against the Chargers, who have a great defense, but it’s not as disruptive as Houston’s. If this front seven can put Maye under consistent pressure, especially without selling out in coverage, they’ll have a real shot to control this game.

What also matters here is how narrow New England’s offensive margin has been against elite defenses. Even in last week’s win, they leaned heavily on field position and patience rather than sustained scoring drives, and Houston is even better equipped to force those uncomfortable third-and-long situations.

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The only problem is Houston’s offense. I’m not a big believer in C.J. Stroud. Since his rookie season, he hasn’t been that great, and this offense has struggled at times this year. That concern is amplified with Nico Collins sidelined, which limits Houston’s margin for error. Without Collins, Houston has leaned even harder into ball control and defensive leverage, which actually aligns with the type of game this matchup is likely to become.

New England’s defense is solid, but it hasn’t consistently shut down strong opponents either, and that matters in a game likely played in the low 20s. This feels less like a spot where the Patriots pull away and more like one where they’re forced to grind every possession.

This is going to be a defensive battle, so I have to go with Houston. I know they’re the road team, but defense travels no matter where you go. Houston has already proven it can win ugly, shorten games, and stay disciplined for four quarters, and if this turns into a field-position contest rather than a shootout, I trust the Texans’ ability to force mistakes more than New England’s ability to separate. It’s going to be low-scoring, and my money’s on the Texans.

Rams at Bears

Odds: Rams -176, Bears +172

The Los Angeles Rams are the only road favorites in the Divisional Round, but once again, the underdog is pretty enticing here. At +172,, you can get the Chicago Bears at home in Soldier Field, where it’ll be freezing cold, windy, and possibly have some snow.

The Rams were my Super Bowl runner-ups in my pre-playoff predictions, but now, I’m not so sure. They did not look good against Carolina, and Matthew Stafford’s finger injury is a real concern. Defensively, this unit has shown cracks late in the season, and Bryce Young throwing for 260-plus yards in the Wild Card round didn’t exactly inspire confidence. Plus, the Rams are not used to playing in this kind of weather, and a second straight cross-country trip only adds to the physical toll, no matter how much they try to downplay it.

On the other side, Chicago has quietly been one of the more reliable home teams this season, covering as an underdog and playing a lot of close, late-decision games. They’re 7–2 at home, including the playoffs, and they’ve consistently played to the level of their competition rather than shrinking from it. Caleb Williams made multiple big throws in the fourth quarter against Green Bay, and this Rams secondary is beatable if Chicago stays on schedule and avoids obvious passing downs.

What stands out most is how comfortable Williams looked when the game tightened. He didn’t force hero throws, didn’t panic, and trusted his timing, traits that matter far more than raw stats in a cold-weather playoff game. A month ago, the Rams might have felt inevitable. Right now, they feel vulnerable.

There are just a lot of things working against the Rams here. I still think they’ll put up a fight, and it’ll be close, but I have to pick Chicago, especially since they’re at +172. Getting the hook at home in a game that profiles as tight feels like the market undervaluing how often Chicago keeps these games within one possession. If this comes down to a late drive, I’d rather be holding points at Soldier Field. If it were closer to a pick ’em, I might lean LA.

That being said, both of these matchups are dynamic for different reasons, and neither feels clean or comfortable. And that’s exactly what makes this Divisional Round slate so compelling… and so difficult to predict.