Fantasy football is unpredictable. You may have spent your first-round pick on someone like Saquon Barkley, who scored 10 points last week, while your waiver wire pickup of Sean Tucker dropped 34 on your bench. The unpredictability is what makes it so fun, but it also makes it extremely frustrating at times.

Each week, I go through and rank the top-20 fantasy players at each position. Last week I did a pretty good job with my RB rankings. I put Christian McCaffrey at No. 2, and he finished as the top running back overall. I put Bijan Robinson as my RB6, and he finished as the RB4. I also had Chase Brown as my RB15, and he finished as the RB12.

I was off on a few guys, though. Ashton Jeanty was my RB7 against Dallas, but finished with nine points. I also had Javonte Williams as my RB10 against Vegas, but he scored just 10. I also left TreVeyon Henderson off my top-20 because I thought Stevenson would be back, but he wasn’t and Henderson finished as RB3.

I won’t pretend to be perfect, but I try to be as close to it as possible, so here are my RB rankings for Week 12 of the NFL season.

RBs on Bye in Week 12

• RJ Harvey
• De’Von Achane
• Jacory Croskey-Merritt
• Kimani Vidal

Here are some running backs that just missed out on the top-20.

• Aaron Jones
• Rhamondre Stevenson
• Sean Tucker
• Kareem Hunt
• Jaylen Warren
• Kenneth Gainwell

20. Emanuel Wilson

Matchup: Minnesota Vikings

I was between Aaron Jones and Emanuel Wilson for the final spot on this list, but I decided to go with the latter. With Josh Jacobs likely missing this week’s game, Wilson is in line to be RB1 in Green Bay. Minnesota’s run defense is much less threatening than Green Bay’s, so I went with Wilson at No. 20.

Projection: 11.8 points

19. Ashton Jeanty

Matchup: Cleveland Browns

It’s hard putting a guy that’s averaging 16.1 points per game since Week 4 at No. 19, but I don’t think Ashton Jeanty is going to have a good game. The Las Vegas Raiders’ offense is horrible, and now they face one of the best run defenses in football. Jeanty is going to get hit behind the line of scrimmage a lot this weekend, so I just don’t see a way he plays well without scoring a touchdown, and I don’t see Vegas scoring many of those.

Projection: 12.1 points

18. Javonte Williams

Matchup: Philadelphia Eagles

Javonte Williams started the season off hot, but has cooled off recently. He’s still a very viable fantasy option, but with a tough game against a Philadelphia Eagles defense that’s really finding its stride right now, I don’t trust Dallas to find a lot of success on the ground this week.

Projection: 12.6 points

17. D’Andre Swift

Matchup: Pittsburgh Steelers

D’Andre Swift owners can breathe a sigh of relief. He is still the lead back in Chicago, even after Kyle Monangai went off while Swift was dealing with an injury a couple weeks back. I don’t love his matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but he’s going to get 15+ touches in this game, and hopefully, he can get some decent work in as a receiver as well.

Projection: 12.8 points

16. Breece Hall

Matchup: Baltimore Ravens

Breece Hall is a great running back, but he’s in a terrible offense. He’s still been able to put up some big numbers because he’s one of the only players on the New York Jets’ offense that can make plays, but now he faces a Baltimore defense that’s trending up and has been much better against the run in recent weeks. He has a very high ceiling, but the offense he’s in gives him a very low floor as well.

Projection: 13.1 points

15. Quinshon Judkins

Matchup: Las Vegas Raiders

Quinshon Judkins is another great back stuck in a terrible offense. He gets a ton of volume each week, so it’s hard to put him much lower than this, even if he hasn’t been that efficient behind a bad offensive line. Vegas doesn’t pose much of a threat defensively, so I think he’ll play pretty well, but I don’t expect fireworks from him this week.

Projection: 13.5 points

14. Alvin Kamara

Matchup: Atlanta Falcons

Alvin Kamara’s fantasy relevance has dwindled this season, but his usage went WAY up in his last game when he saw 22 carries and caught three passes in a win over the Carolina Panthers. I don’t necessarily expect that same level of production, but the Saints know they’re better when he touches the football. He should see 15+ touches in this game against an Atlanta defense that gives up the fourth-most points to opposing RBs.

Projection: 13.9 points

13. Travis Etienne

Matchup: Arizona Cardinals

Travis Etienne had a bad stretch from Week 5 through Week 8, but has turned it back on after Jacksonville’s bye week and has been one of the best fantasy running backs. He’s averaging over 16 points per game over his last three, and now he plays an Arizona defense that gives up the ninth-most points to opposing RBs. It should be a pretty good week for Etienne.

Projection: 14.2 points

12. Chase Brown

Matchup: New England Patriots

Chase Brown has been a fantasy monster since Joe Flacco took over in Cincinnati. He’s scored 18+ in the last three weeks, but this week he faces a New England defense that gives up the second-fewest points per game to opposing running backs. Brown should still see a lot of touches, but I don’t think he’ll have as much success as he’s had in recent weeks.

Projection: 14.3 points

11. Saquon Barkley

Matchup: Dallas Cowboys

Saquon Barkley has been very hit or miss this season, and usually, I wouldn’t have him ranked this high, but he has a great matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, who give up the fifth-most points to opposing running backs. Their run defense should improve with Quinnen Williams at DT (we saw that a bit on Monday), so they’re not as easy a team to run on as they were in the past, but Barkley should still be able to take advantage of the matchup.

Projection: 14.5 points

10. Rico Dowdle

Matchup: San Francisco 49ers

Rico Dowdle continued his run of good form with 15 points last week in Carolina’s win over Atlanta. He’s clearly the Panthers’ lead back, and while the San Francisco 49ers aren’t the easiest matchup, they’re not the toughest, either. I think 15 points is the sweet spot for him this week.

Projection: 14.6 points

9. Woody Marks

Matchup: Buffalo Bills

I think Woody Marks is about to go off on Thursday Night Football. He’s been playing well, and now faces a Buffalo Bills defense that has given up some massive games on the ground in recent weeks. They have not been able to stop the run, and I think Marks is going to finish as a top 10 running back this week.

Projection: 14.9 points

8. Kyren Williams

Matchup: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Kyren Williams is the sneakiest RB8 I’ve ever seen. You never hear anything about him, but he consistently puts up numbers week after week. This week, he faces a Tampa Bay defense that surrenders 25.18 points per game to opposing running backs, so as long as their offense doesn’t fall flat, he should go off.

Projection: 15.3 points

7. Bijan Robinson

Matchup: New Orleans Saints

With Michael Penix and Drake London out, Bijan Robinson is basically the only player on the Falcons who can do anything offensively. The Saints are going to key in on him, but he’s going to get a ton of usage this week, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets into the end zone.

Projection: 15.5 points

6. James Cook

Matchup: Houston Texans

I’ll admit it: I’m a little scared for James Cook this week. Houston’s defense is incredibly good, and I think the Bills will have a hard time offensively. However, I think they’re good enough to still play fairly well, and they know their offense is much better when Cook is involved. I expect him to get a lot of carries and catch a few passes in this game, which should still make him a top-10 back.

Projection: 15.6 points

5. TreVeyon Henderson

Matchup: Cincinnati Bengals

I am a bit scared for TreVeyon Henderson because Rhamondre Stevenson is set to return this week, but he’s been running wild, so I don’t see the New England Patriots taking too many carries away from him. Plus, he has the best RB matchup this week, so even if they split carries, they should both have great games.

Projection: 15.9 points

4. Derrick Henry

Matchup: New York Jets

Derrick Henry’s strung five consecutive 12+ point performances together, and now faces a New York defense that hasn’t been awful, but is far from great. I think Baltimore will feed Henry in this game, especially if they go up big, and he should have a big game on the ground and find the end zone at least once.

Projection: 16.2 points

3. Jonathan Taylor

Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs

Jonathan Taylor deserves to be No. 1 pretty much every week, but the Kansas City Chiefs have an elite run defense, so I think it’s going to be tough sledding for Taylor in Week 12. He’s still going to get a ton of work as Indianapolis tries to find a way to penetrate this Chiefs defense, but I don’t think he’s going to have his 100+ yard, multi-touchdown game this week.

Projection: 16.9 points

2. Christian McCaffrey

Matchup: Carolina Panthers

Christian McCaffrey has averaged 28.6 points per game over his last three contests. Let that sink in, because that is absolutely insane. He has scored 20+ points in all but two weeks this season, and now he gets a very average Carolina defense. I don’t think he hits that 28-point mark again, but there’s no reason he shouldn’t have another big game.

Projection: 17.5 points

1. Jahmyr Gibbs

Matchup: New York Giants

Jahmyr Gibbs has been a fantasy monster this year, but he’s been a bit overshadowed by the McCaffreys and Taylors of the world. There’s a pretty clear top-three this week between the trio I just mentioned, and Gibbs has by far the best matchup. The New York Giants give up the third-most points to opposing running backs, so while it was close between the top-three, I have to give Gibbs the nod.

Projection: 18.0 points