You would think that four weeks into the 2025 regular season, we would have a clear indication of where the MVP conversations are going. But it has been shifting in ways nobody predicted. After Week 4, Lamar Jackson’s stock has plummeted, Matthew Stafford is heating up, and some familiar names are staking their claim. As teams gear up for Week 5, here’s where the MVP ladder stands: ranking the top five stars and a few names who are trying to claw their way back into contention. 

5. Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield has quietly turned the league’s ‘bridge QB’ jokes into something the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can chant back proudly. Four games in, and the Bucs are 3-1. In just 4 games, Mayfield has thrown for 904 yards and logged 8 touchdowns. His Week 4 loss vs. the Philadelphia Eagles has certainly hurt his standings a bit, but you just can’t ignore those two 70+ yard touchdown passes he threw in the second half against the reigning champs. 

There’s an edge to Mayfield’s play that can’t be charted. He’s flicking passes while on the run, flashing the same swagger from his 2024 campaign. If this formula keeps going strong in the coming weeks, Mayfield’s arc won’t just be a highlight, but a full rewrite of his NFL story. Can he break his 2024 career best of 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns? Nearing 1,000 yards already, it certainly feels like another record is all set to be broken.

4. Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes started slow, but the MVP buzz for the Kansas City Chiefs hero is back after two straight wins. Week 4 saw him dismantle the Baltimore Ravens’ defense with 270 yards and 4 touchdowns. Mahomes now heads into Week 5 with 7 touchdowns, one interception, and his usual flair for the cinematic throw. With Kansas City rebounding to 2-2 and Mahomes matching Josh Allen in the TD: INT ratio, he has the narrative and numbers inching closer to the top of the odds board.

Add in Mahomes’ ground game (two rushing scores), and there’s little reason to count out KC. There’s also the added fuel of key weapons returning soon. Xavier Worthy, for one, has already returned vs. Baltimore and had an immediate impact on Mahomes’ magic. Patrick’s leadership under fire is giving everyone flashbacks to his previous MVP runs. Never write him off, especially in October.

3. Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford is the league’s biggest surprise, and maybe the most fun QB story in years. At 38, Stafford has the Los Angeles Rams at 3-1 and a real shot to run the NFC West if they stay hot. He boasts a 106.1 passer rating, eight passing touchdowns, and he has revitalized a Rams offense with Puka Nacua and Devante Adams. Stafford’s touch on the deep balls is back; the zip and confidence are as high as his Detroit Lions’ prime.

What’s wild is how unbothered Stafford looks, even in tight contests. In each game, he attacks secondaries with the kind of freedom only a veteran with nothing left to prove can show. Forget ‘one last run.’ Matthew Stafford looks more like he’s got one more major chapter to write.

2. Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert isn’t ‘potential’ anymore; he’s production, and he’s making the Los Angeles Chargers dream. Herbert’s coming off four games with 1,063 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 3 picks. LA’s 3-1 record puts them right in the AFC hunt, and Herbert’s command in crunch time is finally matching his arm talent. His pocket presence and poise are why the Chargers have become a scary matchup every week.

His only loss came at the hands of the New York Giants in Week 4. But that loss wasn’t entirely on his shoulders. The Chargers’ O-Line struggles were severely amplified with offensive tackle Joe Alt’s injury in the Week 4 matchup. Dropped passes and stalled drives followed. If the O-Line gets patched up, and the offense hums like it has done through the first three weeks of the season, Herbert stands to ignite that old 2021 dream.

1. Josh Allen

Unsurprisingly, Josh Allen is the clear favorite after four weeks, leading a 4-0 Buffalo Bills team and stacking up stats and statement wins. Allen threw for 209 yards, two TDs, and a rushing score in the latest outing alone against the New Orleans Saints. He’s at 10 total touchdowns on the season, and his passing efficiency has jumped compared to his 2024 MVP campaign. The biggest reason Allen’s atop the ladder? Buffalo is the AFC’s last unbeaten franchise now.

Buffalo’s humming O-Line and critical run game have eased the pressure off of Allen. But every time you need him to deliver, he’s right where you need him. Fewer reckless decisions, more calculated risks, and elite results, and the win streak speaks for itself. Whether the Bills take the top seed or not is a different question. But Allen is the one to beat this year for the MVP title again.

Stars on the cusp

Just outside the top five, Lamar Jackson’s campaign has hit turbulence. A Week 4 hamstring injury knocked him out of the Chiefs’ game. With the Ravens now 1-3, his MVP chances are in a free fall. Any missed time in the future would only deepen the gap further. But he’s not the only one with a mission to claw back up the leaderboard. Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, and Sam Darnold are all just a hot month away from shaking up the ladder.

Goff’s Lions are surging with a 3-game win streak heading into October. Dak’s Dallas Cowboys offer a mixed bag of emotions. Dak’s big-play threat is ever-present, with the only setback being the defensive woes. Meanwhile, Darnold has the Seattle Seahawks clicking with a 3-game win streak of their own. Any streak from these three could shake up the entire MVP race.

The first four weeks have given us upsets, comebacks, and a ladder with new faces elbowing for room. Will youth keep winning, or is this Stafford’s year to review the quarterback old guard? One thing’s certain. Nobody is running away with the MVP yet, and that means October could turn the race on its head and give us a few more surprises.