Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you probably know that the NFL Most Valuable Player award race is coming down to the wire. It’s a two-horse race between Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye, and right now, it’s pretty much a coin flip.

New England Patriots fans are screaming from their rooftops for Maye to bring it home, but Los Angeles Rams fans feel like their QB1 has done more over the course of the season to warrant him winning the award.

It’s too early to call, so today I’m going to compare the two, make the case for both, and give my prediction for who will win the award in 2025.

Comparing Drake Maye & Matthew Stafford’s Stats

Here’s a direct comparison of Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford’s 2025 stats.

As you can see, Stafford leads pretty much every major passing category. But stats don’t always tell the entire story…

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The Case For Drake Maye

I know the MVP award has basically turned into the best QB award, but if you take it for what it’s supposed to be – an award for the actual most valuable player in the league – it’s hard to say Maye isn’t more valuable to his team than Stafford.

Maye took a team that won four games in each of its last two seasons to 13 wins in 2025. Say what you want about their schedule and how easy it was, but I like to use the Jameis Winston rule. Put Winston on the Patriots, and they win 5-7 games. Put Winston on the Rams, and they still probably win 9-10 with that roster. That’s just my opinion, but that’s how I see it.

Maye has done more with less than Stafford has. Maye’s top weapon this year is a 32-year-old Stefon Diggs and a rookie running back in TreVeyon Henderson, who didn’t get a lot of playing time in the first half of the season. Stafford’s top weapon this year is a prime Puka Nacua, and behind him, he has Davante Adams and Kyren Williams. Not to mention two solid tight ends in Colby Parkinson and Tyler Higbee.

Another big factor for Maye’s case is his completion percentage. He’s finished the regular season, completing 72.0 percent of his passes, which ranks T-5th all-time. And three of the five seasons tied or better than his were from Drew Brees. Not bad company to be in.

One big knock on Maye’s case is the touchdown numbers. He has 15 fewer passing touchdowns than Stafford this year, but Stafford has thrown 13 one-yard touchdown passes this season, the most in NFL history. Whereas Maye’s typically handing it off at the one-yard line, Stafford is throwing at an incredibly high rate.

Maye has taken one of the worst teams in the league to the top, and he’s done it while being one of the most efficient quarterbacks in football.

The Case For Matthew Stafford

The case for Matthew Stafford is all in the numbers. He beats Maye out in pretty much every passing statistic outside of completion percentage, and his touchdown numbers are much higher than Maye’s. He also led the No. 1 scoring offense in the entire NFL this season at 30.5 PPG.

Here are a couple of stats showcasing how impressive of a year Stafford had at age 37. Stafford is the third-oldest player in NFL history to lead the league in passing touchdowns, behind only Tom Brady, who did it twice in 2015 and 2021. His 46 passing touchdowns are also the second-most by a player over the age of 37, trailing only Peyton Manning’s 55 – an NFL record for most in a single season – in 2013.

Stafford led the league in passing yards by nearly 150, threw for 12 (!) more touchdown passes than any other player and threw just eight picks. If you’re a numbers guy, Stafford should be your pick for the MVP.

My Vote For MVP

I don’t actually have an MVP vote, but if I did, here’s who I’d pick and why.

When I started writing this piece, I thought I was going to go with Matthew Stafford. But after some research, I think my opinion has changed. Drake Maye is my MVP.

MVP isn’t all about the stats. It’s supposed to be about who the most valuable player to their team is, and this season, that’s Maye. Without him taking a huge step in year two, the Patriots wouldn’t even be in the playoffs, much less the 2-seed and in contention for the Super Bowl. Stafford had the better year statistically, but there was some stat padding in there, which isn’t a crime, but it has to be mentioned.

Another reason for me picking Maye is how Stafford ended the year. He played great against Seattle, but when the offense needed him to just score three more points to secure the game in the fourth quarter, he and the Rams went three-and-out three straight times, allowing the Seahawks to climb back into it, and eventually win it in overtime. Then, the next week against Atlanta, Stafford threw three picks in a bad loss, knocking them out of contention for the 1-seed. He finished the season by padding his stats and throwing four touchdowns against Arizona, while Maye took a seat late while the Patriots were up big on Miami.

Stafford will likely win the award, and I won’t be mad at it at all. He’s deserving of it. But in my opinion, Maye has the better case for being the most valuable player to his team.