We’re somehow over a third of the way through the NFL season, and the playoff picture is beginning to take form. In the AFC, there are a few clear frontrunners and six or seven teams vying for the final Wild Card spots. In the NFC, six teams have a real shot at winning their conference, but the Wild Card race is much thinner.

Today, we’re going to use PFF to look at the No. 1 seed, playoff, and NFL Draft odds to get an idea of where everyone stands seven weeks into the season.

Odds For Top Overall Seed

AFC

Indianapolis Colts: 25 percent

Daniel Jones and the Indianapolis Colts hold the top odds to win the AFC. Let that sink in. At the beginning of the season, I would’ve thought that was impossible, but Shane Steichen has worked wonders with this offense, and they’re currently the team to beat, not just in the AFC, but in the entire NFL.

Buffalo Bills: 22 percent

Despite back-to-back losses, the Buffalo Bills have the second-best odds to win the AFC through seven weeks. Many have sort of forgotten the Bills after their two losses and a bye week, but when they play the Kansas City Chiefs in two weeks, we’ll learn a lot more about this team.

Kansas City Chiefs: 17 percent

Speaking of the Chiefs, even though they’re currently out of the playoff picture, they have the third-best odds to win the AFC. Patrick Mahomes is playing like the MVP of the league, and they are on a roll. Next week, they get the Commanders before hosting the Bills on Sunday afternoon.

New England Patriots: 9 percent

The Cinderella story of the AFC has the fourth-best odds to win the conference, but they are significantly lower than the top three. Drake Maye and this offense are humming, and their defense is playing complementary football. They still have some holes to fill – this rebuild came much faster than many anticipated – but if they keep rolling, they’ll have a real shot at winning the AFC.

Denver Broncos: 8 percent

Finally, the Denver Broncos have an eight percent chance of winning the AFC. They’ve had a couple of miraculous comebacks in recent weeks and are sitting at 5-2, but they’ll need to be much more consistent if they want that No. 1 seed.

NFC

Los Angeles Rams: 19 percent

The Los Angeles Rams currently have the best odds to earn the top overall seed in the NFC, but they have two others closely on their tail. The Rams have been very impressive this season, and Matthew Stafford is an MVP favorite. Hard to bet against them at the moment.

Green Bay Packers: 18 percent

This one I don’t get. I know they have one loss, but they haven’t played a tough schedule and are struggling to beat average teams right now. Still, that tie against the Dallas Cowboys is proving useful, considering they’re currently atop the NFC despite only having four wins to multiple teams’ five.

Detroit Lions: 17 percent

The Detroit Lions are right behind Green Bay with a 17 percent chance to win the NFC. They just took down the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who were standing alone atop the NFC, and their offense looks great. If they get healthy in the secondary, they have a real shot at earning a first-round bye.

Philadelphia Eagles: 13 percent

The Philadelphia Eagles got back in the win column after a couple of losses, and it seems like their offense is starting to click. They’re undoubtedly the most talented roster in the NFC, so if they can get on the same page, they’re a real threat.

San Francisco 49ers: 13 percent

The only thing holding the San Francisco 49ers back right now is injuries. They have injuries at pretty much every position right now, but if they can get healthy, they could take the No. 1 seed.

Playoff Odds For Bubble Teams

AFC

Pittsburgh Steelers: 62 percent

After the big five, the Pittsburgh Steelers are the team to beat. They have a great shot at winning their division, and even if they don’t, they’re sitting pretty for a Wild Card with a 4-2 record.

Los Angeles Chargers: 61 percent

The Los Angeles Chargers are right on the Steelers’ tail. They likely won’t win their division, but they should be one of the favorites for a Wild Card spot, especially if they can get healthy sooner rather than later.

Jacksonville Jaguars: 54 percent

The Jacksonville Jaguars are trending down right now, which is evident by them having just 11 percent better odds than the 1-5 Baltimore Ravens. I still think they can fight for a Wild Card spot, but they need to turn things around fast.

Baltimore Ravens: 43 percent

The Ravens are 1-5, and yet they have better odds to make the playoffs than many other AFC teams. There’s only one three-win team in the AFC, which is the beat-up Cincinnati Bengals, so there’s a clear gap between the Jags and the rest of the pack. But if Lamar Jackson comes back and the Ravens start winning, their odds will climb drastically.

Houston Texans: 35 percent

The Houston Texans have been very disappointing this season. They’re 2-4 despite having one of the best defenses in the league, and if it weren’t for their defense, their odds would be MUCH lower than 35 percent.

Cincinnati Bengals: 29 percent

Everyone’s holding out hope that the Bengals can sneak in as a Wild Card – or potentially even a division winner – and Joe Burrow can get healthy in time for the playoffs. It’s a long shot, but crazier things have happened, and Joe Flacco looks good under center in Cincy.

NFC

Seattle Seahawks: 58 percent

The Seattle Seahawks not having top-five odds to win the No. 1 seed shows how deep the NFC, and more specifically the NFC West, is. They are far ahead of the rest of the bubble teams in terms of odds to make the playoffs, making this a six-team race for that final Wild Card spot.

Atlanta Falcons: 39 percent

The Atlanta Falcons are the best of the rest at the moment, but this is a massive week for them. A win would boost their playoff odds to 45 percent, while a loss would drop them down to 21 percent.

Chicago Bears: 32 percent

The Chicago Bears are right there with the Falcons when it comes to odds to make the playoffs. After them, it falls off a bit to some three-win teams, plus the Carolina Panthers. If the Bears want to keep the pressure on, a win this week would be massive.

Carolina Panthers: 23 percent

Of all the four-win teams in the NFL, the Panthers have by far the lowest odds to make the playoffs, coming in at 23 percent. Their road gets pretty tough from here on out, so these next three or four weeks will be crucial for their playoff hopes.

Minnesota Vikings: 21 percent

The Minnesota Vikings lead the NFC’s three-win pack with a 21 percent chance to make the playoffs. They’ve already had their bye, so they’re sitting at 3-3, but they still have some issues at the quarterback position. Either Carson Wentz or J.J. McCarthy needs to step it up to make them legit threats.

Washington Commanders: 21 percent

The Washington Commanders are on the outside looking in on the playoff picture after making it to the NFC Championship last year. Injuries have ruined their season, but they also just aren’t playing good football. With Jayden Daniels out again, their season might be over.

Dallas Cowboys: 19 percent

Finally, the Dallas Cowboys have just a 19 percent chance of making the playoffs after a 3-3-1 start, but if their defense can replicate their performance against the Commanders week-to-week, they’ll be in a much better spot, given they have arguably the best offense in football.

Odds For Top Five Pick

New York Jets: 85 percent

The New York Jets are the only winless team in the league right now, so it’s pretty obvious they have the best odds for a top-five pick. They have holes all over their roster, including at quarterback, so this would be big for their franchise.

New Orleans Saints: 79 percent

The New Orleans Saints are also near-locks for a top-five draft pick after their 1-6 start. The road doesn’t get much easier for them moving forward, and they could trade a few key pieces away to bring in some more draft capital.

Tennessee Titans: 76 percent

Another near-lock for a top-five pick is the Tennessee Titans. They have their quarterback in place, so they’d have the luxury of potentially moving back or taking the best player available regardless of position.

Miami Dolphins: 67 percent

The Miami Dolphins are just a dumpster fire right now, and with the way Tua Tagovailoa is playing, they could be in the hunt for a quarterback come April. A top-five pick would certainly help them out.

Cleveland Browns: 47 percent

Right now, the Cleveland Browns have the fifth-best odds for a top-five pick. They already have two wins, but Dillon Gabriel doesn’t bring much juice to the offense, so I don’t see them outscoring too many more opponents.

Odds For 1st Overall Pick

New York Jets: 37 percent

The Jets also have the best odds for the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft. They could be in the hunt for a quarterback, but there is also a ton of other talent that they could pick if they don’t fall in love with a quarterback in the pre-draft process.

New Orleans Saints: 23 percent

The Saints are another team that could look to shore up the quarterback position, but Spencer Rattler hasn’t been half bad, and they just drafted Tyler Shough 40th overall. I think they wait another year and take the best player available with whatever pick they have.

Tennessee Titans: 16 percent

Like I mentioned earlier, the Titans have the luxury of not needing a quarterback. If they land the No. 1 overall pick, they are almost a lock to trade out and gather more picks, like the Panthers did a few years ago.

Miami Dolphins: 14 percent

The Dolphins actually have a lot of talent on the offensive side of the ball, but they could move off Tua if they don’t think he’s the future of their franchise. A quarterback is in play here, but so is the offensive line or defensive help.

Cleveland Browns: 5 percent

It seems unlikely that anyone outside of that top four would land the No. 1 overall pick, but anything can happen. The Browns have a very good defense and two young quarterbacks, so going with an offensive lineman or wide receiver with their top pick wouldn’t surprise me.