We are just three weeks away from Super Bowl Sunday. Just four teams are remaining in the hunt for the Lombardi, and it still feels like a toss-up. One team may be out of it after a brutal injury late in the Divisional Round, but the other three still have a fighting chance.

I went through the four teams still standing, created my own Super Bowl odds for each one, and compared them to Vegas’ odds.

(1) Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos took a huge blow on Saturday. Just minutes after a thrilling overtime win over the Bills, it was announced that Bo Nix fractured his ankle on the second-to-last offensive play of the game and will miss the remainder of the playoffs. They would’ve been my second favorites to win it all were he healthy, but now they have to be last by a country mile.

Jarrett Stidham, who has four career starts under his belt and hasn’t thrown a single pass all season, will be the starter for Denver. As a Saints fan, I’ve seen Sean Payton work some magic with Teddy Bridgewater, Taysom Hill, and Jameis Winston, so I believe he’s going to get something out of Stidham. It’s just a matter of how much.

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This defense is good enough to carry them all the way, which is why my odds are a bit better than Vegas is giving, but it would need to be a historic run.

My Odds: +1100

Real Odds: +1300

(2) New England Patriots

Despite having the easiest road to the Super Bowl, I’m giving the New England Patriots the third-best odds to win it all at +300, which is longer than Vegas’ at +240. I believe Denver is going to prove tougher than most people think, even with Nix out. That pass rush is going to make Drake Maye’s life a living hell, and when he’s been pressured in the postseason, Maye is 5-for-9 for 109 yards and one touchdown with four turnover-worthy plays (18.2 percent) and 10 sacks (45.5 percent pressure to sack rate).

And if New England does manage to get past Denver, they then have to beat the Seahawks and Rams, who I think are better teams. Seattle’s defense is even better than people give them credit for, and I would trust Matthew Stafford in the Super Bowl more than Maye.

New England has a great shot at it, but I believe it’s more likely that either of the NFC teams wins it than them.

My Odds: +300

Real Odds: +240

(1) Seattle Seahawks

The Seattle Seahawks are my overwhelming favorites to win it all this year. I’ve been high on this team all season, but I’ve been cautiously optimistic about Sam Darnold in the postseason. Turns out they don’t even need him to win by 35 points against the 49ers. They ran the ball down their throats and played stout defense.

If you don’t believe in the Seahawks, here are a couple of stats for you. Over their last three games, the Seahawks have given up 6.3 points per game. All three of those games have been against playoff teams, and they held Kyle Shanahan, one of the best play-callers in football, to nine points in two contests. Mike Macdonald’s defenses have also given up a combined zero points in the second half of their last three playoff games (one as Seattle’s head coach, two as Baltimore’s defensive coordinator).

This team has all the tools to win it all this year. As long as Darnold doesn’t have a complete meltdown, they should hoist the Lombardi again in 2025.

My Odds: +125

Real Odds: +145

(2) Los Angeles Rams

If Seattle doesn’t win it, that means the Los Angeles Rams likely beat them in the NFC Championship, and in that case, they’d be my favorites to win it all. I believe the Rams have the best overall roster of any team in the playoffs. Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Kyren Williams, and we haven’t even talked about Jared Verse and Co. on the other side of the ball.

My odds are a bit longer than Vegas’ because I think Seattle should be a bigger favorite in the NFC Championship than they are, but they still edge out New England for second place. The Rams are the only team left that has any Super Bowl experience on their roster, so that has to play a large factor too.

As I said earlier, whoever wins the NFC Championship will be my pick to win the Super Bowl, barring any major injuries. I just feel better about Seattle right now than Los Angeles.

My Odds: +270

Real Odds: +210