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Essentials Inside The Story

  • Week 17 games carry direct playoff and seeding consequences.
  • Several matchups hinge on QB availability and late-season motivation.
  • Weather and matchup factors create sharp disagreement in projections.

We’re two weeks away from the start of the NFL playoffs, which means our staff pick competition is also coming down to the wire. Tim currently leads the overall tally, but Reubyn is the leader in win percentage.

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Before we hop into our weekly staff picks for Week 17, here’s a look at the overall standings through 16 weeks:

Luke Hubbard: 110-66 (.625) 

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Tim Wood: 114-62 (.647) 

Abhishek Singh: 90-70 (.563)

Reubyn Coutinho: 107-56 (.656)

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Utsav Jain: 78-42 (.650)

Ryan Ward: 74-46 (.617)

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Nagendra Bisht: 10-6 (.625)

Now, let’s get into the picks.

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Cowboys at Commanders

Game Time: Thursday, 1 pm at Northwest Stadium

Where to Watch: Netflix

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Game Odds: DAL -6.5, O/U 50.5

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Weather: 48 degrees with a high chance of rain

Luke Hubbard, Senior NFL Writer: The Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders meet on Christmas in a meaningless game. Both teams are out of playoff contention, but both want to end the season strong, and that starts with winning this game. Give me Dallas. Cowboys 31, Commanders 23

Tim Wood, NFL Editorial Chief: It looked like Netflix was set up for great Christmas matchups before the season. Now, not so much. We will all still watch, but it’s more just a matter of pride. I just hope the Cowboys have more pride than proven playoff-making skills. Cowboys 28, Commanders 20

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Abhishek Singh, NFL Content Manager: Even if neither team has much on the line, I don’t see the Cowboys losing on Christmas. Washington’s quarterback situation makes this tough, and Dallas’ offense should be able to pull away early. Divisional games can get weird, but this one feels pretty straightforward. Cowboys 31, Commanders 17

Lions at Vikings

Game Time: Thursday, 4:30 pm at U.S. Bank Stadium

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Where to Watch: Netflix 

Game Odds: DET -7.5, O/U 43.5

Hubbard: The Detroit Lions were robbed last week, and now they need to win out. Luckily, the Minnesota Vikings are no match for their offense. Lions 30, Vikings 21

Wood: As much as this looks like it should be a Lions win with so much on the line, the Vikings … are playing with Max Brosmer. Yeah, I can’t make that case. Lions 38, Vikings 20

Singh: The Lions are running out of time to keep their playoff hopes alive, and I think they’ll come out pressing hard in this must-win game. Minnesota might make it interesting at times, but Detroit’s urgency should carry them to the win. Lions 27, Vikings 20

Broncos at Chiefs

Game Time: Thursday, 8:15 pm at Arrowhead Stadium

Where to Watch: Amazon Prime 

Game Odds: DEN -13.5, O/U 36.5

Weather: 55 degrees

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Hubbard: This game was fun when it was scheduled, but it’s going to be pretty boring with Patrick Mahomes out. Easy win for Denver. Broncos 25, Chiefs 7

Wood: Can Andy Reid make Chris Oladukon an NFL QB with four days of prep? Wow, it’s really come to this. Broncos 31, Chiefs 13

Singh: The Chiefs are a complete mess at QB, and the Broncos have plenty to play for with the No. 1 seed in sight. Denver’s defense should feast, and I see this turning into a Christmas blowout for the Broncos. Broncos 31, Chiefs 10

Texans at Chargers

Game Time: Saturday, 4:30 pm at SoFi Stadium

Where to Watch: NFL Network

Game Odds: LAC -1.5, O/U 39.5

Hubbard: Now this should be a fun game. Two of the best defenses in the league are facing off, with both offenses sputtering recently. It’s going to be low-scoring and gritty, but I think LA gets it done in a close one. I just trust Justin Herbert more. Chargers 13, Texans 10

Wood: The NFL should be able to flex the Christmas games. This would have been the game I wanted to see. Yes, the Texans have to officially lock up a spot, but the Chargers are playing for positioning here. I like the one with more to fight for. Texans 24, Chargers 21

Singh: The Chargers have already locked up a playoff spot, while the Texans are still fighting for theirs. Houston’s defense has been playing really well, and I think they’ll make life tough for LA, keeping this game close. Texans 21, Chargers 20

Ravens at Packers

Game Time: Saturday, 8:00 pm at Lambeau Field

Where to Watch: Peacock 

Game Odds: GB -3, O/U 40.5

Weather: 36 degrees with a chance of rain

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Hubbard: Both of these teams desperately need to win this game. Baltimore needs it to potentially force a Week 18 winner-takes-all against Pittsburgh, and Green Bay needs it to make sure they hold onto a Wild Card spot. Close battle, but I trust the Packers more. Packers 23, Ravens 21 

Wood: Imagine if this turns into a backup battle. Whether it’s Love vs. Lamar or Huntley vs. Willis, I like the Pack more here at home. Packers 27, Ravens 23

Singh: Both teams need a win, but the Ravens have been wildly inconsistent this season, and Lamar Jackson’s status is uncertain. I’m trusting the Packers at home to get the job done and clinch a playoff spot. Packers 27, Ravens 20

Cardinals at Bengals

Game Time: Sunday, 1 pm at Paycor Stadium

Where to Watch: FOX

Game Odds: CIN -7.5, O/U 52.5

Weather: 63 degrees and rain

Hubbard: I’m done picking the Cardinals to win. They stink. Give me Cincy. Bengals 35, Cardinals 24

Wood: Joe Burrow is looking to finish strong. The Cards are looking for a draft pick. Bengals 23, Cardinals 17

Singh: The Bengals might be out of playoff contention, but Burrow and their offense can still light it up. The Cardinals have some weapons, but Cincinnati’s talent should be too much, even in a meaningless game. Bengals 34, Cardinals 20

Steelers at Browns

Game Time: Sunday, 1 pm at Huntington Bank Stadium

Where to Watch: CBS

Game Odds: PIT -3, O/U 33.5

Weather: 45 degrees and rain

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Hubbard: The Pittsburgh Steelers can clinch a playoff spot with a win over Cleveland on Sunday. That’s all they need to do, and they’re playoff-bound. I think they can get it done. Steelers 17, Browns 10

Wood: This is going to be a classic AFC North donnybrook. If the Ravens have lost, this game means a lot less. But I still don’t see the Steelers losing this one. Steelers 27, Browns 10

Singh: The Steelers are chasing the AFC North and can clinch a playoff spot with a win, but the Browns’ pass rush, led by Myles Garret,t could make life miserable for Pittsburgh, especially with DK Metcalf unavailable. I see a close, hard-fought game, but the Steelers should just get it done. Steelers 23, Browns 20

Saints at Titans

Game Time: Sunday, 1 pm at Nissan Stadium

Where to Watch: CBS

Game Odds: NO -2.5, O/U39.5

Weather: 67 degrees with a chance of rain

Hubbard: My New Orleans Saints are rolling right now, and I don’t think Tennessee can stop them. Tyler Shough has all the momentum behind him, and I know the Titans are coming off a win over Kansas City, but I can’t bet against my Saints now. Also, I never thought I’d see the day Tim gave credit to my team 🥹. It’s a true Christmas miracle. Saints 24, Titans 15

Wood: So I know it’s the Saints, but folks, they look to have found their coach. Shough looks like a long-term answer. This team is looking very much like the late-season surges of the Lions and the Patriots in recent years that led to dramatic turnarounds the next season. I think they continue it here against the Titans. Saints 23, Titans 13

Singh: The Saints are on a 3-game winning streak, and their defense has been dominant. The Titans are fighting to stay relevant in draft positioning, but the conditions and New Orleans’ momentum favor the road team. I think the Saints pull off a close win in Nashville. Saints 24, Titans 20

Jaguars at Colts

Game Time: Sunday, 1 pm at Lucas Oil Stadium

Where to Watch: FOX

Game Odds: JAX -6.5, O/U 48.5

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Hubbard: The Jacksonville Jaguars are the hottest team in the NFL right now, and the Indianapolis Colts are the coldest team in the NFL. Not much else to say. Jaguars 33, Colts 22

Wood: I’m struggling riding this roll with the Jaguars. Trevor Lawrence has been a different player since the arrival of Jacobi Meyers. It’s hard to imagine the Jags knowing how to handle this much prosperity, but they are playing inspired ball – the direct opposite of what the tailspin the Colts are in. Jaguars 38, Colts 21

Singh: The Jaguars are on a roll, winning seven straight as favorites, and their run defense has been dominant. Trevor Lawrence is playing at a high level, while the Colts are limping to the finish line. Jacksonville should take care of business on the road and keep their momentum going. Jaguars 27, Colts 20

Buccaneers at Dolphins

Game Time: Sunday, 1 pm at Hard Rock Stadium

Where to Watch: FOX

Game Odds: TB -5.5

Weather: 78 degrees

Hubbard: Tampa really, really needs to win this game, and luckily for them, the Dolphins have fallen back down to Earth after their big win streak. Tampa takes this and forces a “game seven” against Carolina in Week 18. Buccaneers 23, Dolphins 19

Wood: What does this Bucs team have left in them? Do they want Todd Bowles as their coach next season? This game will tell it all. I have to pick the team with playoff life still in them, especially as the Dolphins experiment with their QBs. Buccaneers 23, Dolphins 10 

Singh: The Buccaneers desperately need a win to keep pace in the NFC South, and they get a Dolphins team starting a shaky QB. Miami could keep it close at times, but Tampa Bay’s motivation and home-field edge should be enough to pull out the victory. Buccaneers 24, Dolphins 17

Patriots at Jets

Game Time: Sunday, 1 pm at MetLife Stadium

Where to Watch: FOX

Game Odds: NE -13.5, O/U 42.5

Weather: 30 degrees with a chance of rain

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Hubbard: Drake Maye. That is all. Patriots 33, Jets 17

Wood: This is the trap game that Patriots fans dread, but I just can’t see it. The name is right, Brady Cook. But this Brady isn’t taking down Maye. Patriots 40, Jets 16

Singh: Patriots are still chasing the AFC No. 1 seed, while the Jets have been struggling all season. New England is far superior on both sides of the ball, and I don’t see this staying close for long. Patriots 31, Jets 10

Seahawks at Panthers

Game Time: Sunday, 1 pm at Bank of America Stadium

Where to Watch: CBS

Game Odds: SEA -7, O/U 42.5

Weather: 57 degrees with a slight chance of rain

Hubbard: The Carolina Panthers can clinch the NFC South with a win and a Buccaneers loss. That doesn’t seem likely with Tampa playing Miami, but all the Panthers can do is win this game. Unfortunately, Seattle is going to murder them. Seahawks 40, Panthers 20

Wood: I have no idea what to make of this Panthers team. Carolina at home, Seahawks have to travel across the country. Sure, let’s roll the dice. Panthers 24, Seahawks 20

Singh: Seahawks are fighting for the No. 1 seed and have a more complete team, but the Panthers are scrappy and playing for a potential playoff home game. I think Seattle wins, but Carolina keeps it closer than the big spread suggests. Seahawks 27, Panthers 20

Giants at Raiders

Game Time: Sunday, 4:05 pm at Allergiant Stadium

Where to Watch: CBS

Game Odds: NYG -1.5, O/U 41.5

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Hubbard: This is actually a massive game. The Giants hold the first pick, and the Raiders hold the second. This could be the difference between the Raiders getting their preferred quarterback and the Giants getting a haul to move back. Neither team wants to win this game, but someone has to. Giants 2, Raiders 0

Wood: The Raiders need to lose this game more than the Giants. They’ll both find ways to lose here, but the Giants will lose just a little less. Giants 13, Raiders 10

Singh: The battle for the top draft pick is on, and neither has much to play for beyond pride. The Raiders have slightly more talent, but the Giants have motivation under a new interim coach. I think it’ll be a close one, but Vegas just edges it out. Raiders 23, Giants 21

Eagles at Bills

Game Time: Sunday, 4:25 pm at Highmark Stadium

Where to Watch: FOX

Game Odds: BUF -1.5, O/U 43.5

Weather: 35 degrees with rain

Hubbard: This game should be pretty fun. Both of these teams are among the best in the league, but have really struggled at times this year. Josh Allen’s health will play a big role in this game. If he’s 100 percent, I like Buffalo, but I don’t know if he is. Eagles 24, Bills 23

Wood: This is tricky for me. A heart versus head pick. I want the Bills to lose to lock up the AFC East for my Patriots. But I just see it happening. And my heart also wants the Eagles to lose more, though my head tells me on paper they should win here. I trust the Bills’ O-line to open up lanes for James Cook more than I trust the Eagles to muscle enough to break Saquon Barkley free more. And I certainly trust Allen more than Jalen Hurts. Bills 28, Eagles 27

Singh: This is a heavyweight matchup with playoff implications, and both teams can make a statement. The Bills’ running game and Allen give them a slight edge, but the Eagles’ balance and home-field advantage make this a tight game. I see Buffalo just getting the job done and, in turn, solidifying Allen’s MVP bid. Bills 27, Eagles 23

Bears at 49ers

Game Time: Sunday, 8:20 pm at Levi’s Stadium

Where to Watch: NBC

Game Odds: SF -3, O/U 52.5

Weather: 51 degrees

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Hubbard: Both of these teams are red hot right now. Chicago is coming off a massive win over Green Bay, while the 49ers dismantled the Colts on primetime on Monday night. I think both teams are great, but my gut’s telling me San Fran wins this. 49ers 30, Bears 28

Wood: Going with the home team here, period. I wish I could pick the Bears here because I truly want them to win the division more than the Packers, but it’s all coming down to Week 18 in the NFC North. 49ers 33, Bears 24

Singh: The 49ers are clicking at home with Purdy, McCaffrey, and Kittle leading the charge, while the Bears have been impressive all season but tend to play close against top teams. I think San Francisco does just enough to win a tight one. 49ers 27, Bears 24

Rams at Falcons

Game Time: Monday, 8:20 pm at Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Where to Watch: ABC/ESPN

Game Odds: LAR -7.5, O/U 49.5

Hubbard: The Los Angeles Rams are looking to get back on track 11 days after losing to the Seahawks on Thursday Night Football. They no longer control their own destiny when it comes to getting the 1-seed in the NFC, but all they can do is win and hope. They should win this game pretty easily. Rams 31, Falcons 17

Wood: Come on, folks. Come on, NFL. You couldn’t flex this game out? The Rams are coming out angry here. You don’t want to mess with a mad Matthew Stafford. Rams 28, Falcons 14

Singh: The Rams are still chasing the No. 1 seed and coming off a tough loss, while the Falcons are just playing for pride. Los Angeles should have too much firepower and motivation, and I expect them to roll in this one. Rams 31, Falcons 17

The results will decide key playoff positions heading into next week.

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