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INGLEWOOD, CA – NOVEMBER 25: Los Angeles Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh celebrates after a touchdown was scored with Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert 10 during the NFL, American Football Herren, USA game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Los Angeles Chargers on November 25, 2024, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. Photo by Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire NFL: NOV 25 Ravens at Chargers EDITORIAL USE ONLY Icon241125370

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INGLEWOOD, CA – NOVEMBER 25: Los Angeles Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh celebrates after a touchdown was scored with Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert 10 during the NFL, American Football Herren, USA game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Los Angeles Chargers on November 25, 2024, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. Photo by Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire NFL: NOV 25 Ravens at Chargers EDITORIAL USE ONLY Icon241125370
Essentials Inside The Story
- Justin Herbert’s matchup data points to a rare playoff-week opportunity.
- Sam Darnold’s recent trend raises quite a few red flags against the upcoming opposition.
- Multiple skill players enter Week 16 riding decisive usage and matchup splits.
The semifinals of the fantasy football playoffs are here. If you’re one of the final four teams still standing in your league, congratulations, but there’s still work to be done.
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With just two weeks left in the fantasy football season, I went through every Week 16 game and tried to find some matchups you can take advantage of this week. Here are my two best starts and sits at each position for Week 16.
Start ‘Em
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Quarterback
Justin Herbert has been hard to trust in recent weeks, and I’d know, because he was my starting quarterback for most of the year. His hand injury, coupled with injuries to both of his starting tackles, has limited him, but he gets to play the Dallas Cowboys, who give up almost four more fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks than any other team in the league. The matchup is just too good to pass up.

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NFL, American Football Herren, USA Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers Oct 19, 2025 Inglewood, California, USA Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert 10 throws the ball in the first half against the Indianapolis Colts at SoFi Stadium. Inglewood SoFi Stadium California USA, EDITORIAL USE ONLY PUBLICATIONxINxGERxSUIxAUTxONLY Copyright: xGaryxA.xVasquezx 20251019_kdn_sv5_277
Jared Goff has really stepped up his fantasy production in the past month, and I’d know, because he’s who I replaced Herbert with as my starter for the past few weeks. While I will be starting Herbert over him this week, Goff also has a very friendly matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who give up the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Goff has been playing very well recently and now has a great matchup. A good combo.
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Running Back
Woody Marks was a topic of controversy in round one of the fantasy playoffs. He scored a touchdown, but it was on an errant snap and was ruled a fumble, so he was not given credit for the score. Later in the game, Marks suffered an injury, which caused him to sit out, but DeMeco Ryans confirmed that if the score was closer, he could’ve gone back in. So, Marks is healthy and should continue to see the majority of the Houston Texans’ touches against a bad Raiders defense. He’s a start for me this week.
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Devin Neal’s status for this week is still up in the air, but if he plays, he’s going to be a viable starting option. Since Alvin Kamara went down, the rookie has taken over as the lead back in the New Orleans Saints’ offense, and we know Kellen Moore loves running the ball. He saw 14+ carries in each of his last two games before exiting early last week, but not before he scored a touchdown. If he goes, he’s likely going to give you 12-15 points against a Jets defense that allows the third-most points to opposing RBs.
For a bonus pick, here’s one I don’t feel great about, but the stats back it up: Quinshon Judkins. We have seen the Buffalo Bills get torn up by running backs week after week after week, and now they face Cleveland. I don’t trust Cleveland’s offense whatsoever, but all the stats point to Judkins having a good game. Again, it’s risky, which is why it’s a bonus pick, but if you’re really hurting or feel you’re outmatched and need a spark in your FLEX, Judkins could be a good start.
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Wide Receiver
Jauan Jennings has really emerged this season. Everyone’s eyes were on Ricky Pearsall, but injuries and just lack of development have hurt him this season and allowed Jennings to show the San Francisco 49ers that maybe he’s the receiver they need to build around. He doesn’t put up the lofty yard numbers so many other receivers do, but he’s scored six touchdowns in his last six games and has been targeted at least five times in each of his last eight contests. The Indianapolis Colts’ defense has struggled defending receivers, so Jennings is a start for me. Plus, he plays on Monday, so as long as you’re within 20-25 points, you still have a shot.

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NFL, American Football Herren, USA San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks Oct 10, 2024 Seattle, Washington, USA San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Jauan Jennings 15 leaves the tunnel during warmups before the game against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field. Seattle Lumen Field Washington USA, EDITORIAL USE ONLY PUBLICATIONxINxGERxSUIxAUTxONLY Copyright: xStevenxBisigx 20241010_SMB_ab9_0003
I’ve been burned by Ladd McConkey too many times this season, but this matchup against Dallas is just too juicy to pass up. The Cowboys give up 40 points per game to opposing receivers, and the Los Angeles Chargers only have four guys they really throw it to. That should mean that McConkey should score at least 10 points this week, if not more, right?
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Tight End
Darren Waller either made or broke your season on Monday night when he scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter of a blowout. After a 23-point performance in the opening round of the playoffs, Waller gets to face the Cincinnati Bengals, who give up over five more points per game to opposing tight ends than any other team in the league. I know Quinn Ewers is making his first start, but young quarterbacks usually love their tight ends. Waller has easily the best matchup of any tight end this week, so he’s a must-start, unless you have a Trey McBride or George Kittle or someone like that.
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Dallas Goedert has been playing really well recently, scoring 15+ points in each of his last two matchups. Couple that with the fact that the Washington Commanders give up 16.1 points per game to opposing tight ends, the fourth-most in the league, and he’s a must-start this week as well.
Sit ‘Em
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Quarterback
Jaxson Dart was playing out of his mind before he missed multiple games with a concussion, and ever since he returned to the field, he’s been pretty disappointing from a fantasy standpoint. That shouldn’t change this week. The Minnesota Vikings give up just 13 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, so he’s going on my bench this week.

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NFL, American Football Herren, USA Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans Nov 23, 2025 Nashville, Tennessee, USA Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold 14 warms up before a game against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium. Nashville Nissan Stadium Tennessee USA, EDITORIAL USE ONLY PUBLICATIONxINxGERxSUIxAUTxONLY Copyright: xStevexRobertsx 20251123_jhp_ra1_0011
Sam Darnold hasn’t been playing his best football for the past month or so, and now he has to face the Los Angeles Rams, a team he threw four interceptions against just a few weeks ago. I don’t like any quarterback having to face the Rams, but we’ve already seen them fool Darnold once. I don’t expect four interceptions again, but I don’t expect fireworks either.
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Running Back
Jaylen Warren is probably sitting on your bench or in your FLEX, and you’re considering whether or not you should start him. I don’t think he’d be the worst start in a FLEX spot, but Detroit has one of the best-run defenses in the entire league, and Warren doesn’t do too well against really stout defenses. He should see a healthy amount of touches, but his fantasy production will be very touchdown-dependent this week.
Ashton Jeanty is in the same boat. He should be okay this week, but I’d hesitate to start him. The Las Vegas Raiders might not score a single point against Houston’s defense this week, and if Houston scores a couple of touchdowns early, Jeanty could basically be erased from this game. I wouldn’t want to have to rely on him this week.
Wide Receiver
I love me some Wan’Dale Robinson because I got him off waivers in both leagues, and he’s been pretty productive for me, but I’m scared to start him this week. Minnesota’s pass defense has been really good, which was evident last week when George Pickens was held under 10 points. Robinson is the WR1 in New York, but I’m a bit worried for him this week.

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Washington Commanders vs. Detroit Lions DETROIT,MICHIGAN-JANUARY 18: Wide receiver Terry McLaurin 17 of the Washington Commanders runs after making a catch ahead of an NFL, American Football Herren, USA Divisional Round game between the Detroit Lions and the Washington Commanders in Detroit, Michigan USA, on Saturday, January 18, 2025. Detroit Michigan United States PUBLICATIONxNOTxINxFRA Copyright: xAmyxLemusx originalFilename:lemus-washingt250118_npduS.jpg
Terry McLaurin has had a couple of nice games since returning from injury, but this Philadelphia defense is good, and I don’t trust Marcus Mariota to have two good weeks in a row. I think this is going to be a fairly low-scoring game (at least for Washington), so there aren’t going to be many opportunities for McLaurin to get the ball and score big points.
Tight End
Harold Fannin has been great late in the season with Shedeur Sanders under center, but this week he has to face the Buffalo Bills, who have an elite pass defense and give up the fewest points to opposing tight ends. Sanders looked really shaky last week against a decent Chicago defense, and this Buffalo defense is much better, especially against the pass. Just not a lot of things are working for Fannin this week.
Hunter Henry is another sit for me this week. The Baltimore Ravens have had some defensive issues this year, but they only give up 10.9 points per game to opposing tight ends, which is sixth in the NFL. Add on the fact that he’s been pretty inconsistent, and I just don’t trust him this week.
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