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Essentials Inside The Story

  • Drake Maye’s late-season numbers suggest a shift in fantasy reliability as Week 16 pressure peaks.
  • Matthew Stafford’s recent production hides a key trend that matters more than matchup labels.
  • Several QBs show decisive Week 16 splits that fantasy managers often overlook too late.

The semi-finals are here. If you’re reading this, you’ve likely made it past the first round of the playoffs and are looking for some quarterback advice. A lot of the top quarterbacks have fairly friendly matchups, but there are also some sleepers that could help you win your matchups this week.

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I’ve gone through every matchup and ranked the top-20 quarterbacks for the semi-final round of the fantasy football playoffs.

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20. C.J. Stroud

Matchup: Las Vegas Raiders

C.J. Stroud has been playing some pretty good football recently and is coming off his second-best fantasy performance of the entire season. Now, he gets to face a Las Vegas defense that is really bad and just let Jalen Hurts throw the ball all over them. I don’t think Stroud will have as much success as Hurts, but he should score in the mid-to-high teens.

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19. Baker Mayfield

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Matchup: Carolina Panthers

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Baker Mayfield has been on a downward trajectory for the last eight or nine weeks, but played one of his best games last week with all of his offensive weapons back. Carolina’s defense is solid, but it’s nothing special, so I think Mayfield should be able to score in the mid-to-high teens this week.

18. Sam Darnold

Matchup: Los Angeles Rams

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Sam Darnold and the Seattle Seahawks did not look good against the Colts this past weekend. They won because they made five field goals, and if they want to avenge their loss to the Rams this week, Darnold and Co. are going to need to play much, much better. We just saw Jared Goff have a massive game against this defense, but they stepped up in the second half and looked as dominant as ever. I don’t see Darnold being all that great this weekend. This defense is just too good.

17. Jaxson Dart

Matchup: Minnesota Vikings

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Jaxson Dart scored 19+ fantasy points in six of his first seven starts, but has slowed down quite a bit since returning from injury. The lack of talent around him is finally starting to catch up to him, and the Minnesota Vikings’ defense has been playing much better recently than they were earlier in the season, so I had to drop him out of the top-15.

16. Caleb Williams

Matchup: Green Bay Packers

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Caleb Williams has been playing very well recently, but it hasn’t exactly translated to fantasy production. He’s only scored 20+ in one of his last five games, but he’s been able to put up 15-17 points pretty consistently. He’s facing a tough Green Bay defense, which he scored 16 points against just a couple of weeks ago, so look for him to end up right around that mark again this week.

15. Tyler Shough

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Matchup: New York Jets

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Tyler Shough has been so much fun to watch these last few weeks, and no one is really talking about him because he’s on the New Orleans Saints. He hasn’t put up the lofty quarterback numbers you want in a QB1, but he’s consistently scoring 18 points per game. Not a starter in most leagues, but if you’re hurting, he’s not a terrible option.

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14. Bo Nix

Matchup: Jacksonville Jaguars

Bo Nix just played one of the best games of his entire career, throwing for 302 yards and four touchdowns in a win over the Packers. When he’s rolling, Denver’s offense looks pretty good, but he’s been very inconsistent this year. This is a big game against Jacksonville this week, and I want to see him replicate that performance, but the Jags’ defense has been playing well recently, and I don’t know if I can trust Nix to score 20+ again, considering it had been five weeks since he’d done that before last week.

13. Lamar Jackson

Matchup: New England Patriots

Lamar Jackson hasn’t looked like the same guy we’re used to seeing this year, but he’s turned things around in the last two weeks and has looked much better. Still, the New England Patriots have a defense that is much better than Pittsburgh’s and Cincinnati’s. We haven’t seen Jackson play well against a tough defense since returning from injury, so I’ve got him outside the top-10.

12. Jacoby Brissett

Matchup: Atlanta Falcons

Jacoby Brissett has finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback every single week since he took over as a starter (except last week, but he played Houston, who is the No. 1 defense in the NFL). This week, he gets to play an Arizona defense that has not been very good against the pass. I think Brissett gets back to his typical 250-yard, 2+ touchdown stat line this week.

11. Trevor Lawrence

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Matchup: Denver Broncos

I really wanted to put Trevor Lawrence higher than this. He’s been playing so well recently, and the Jacksonville Jaguars’ offense is cooking, but the Denver Broncos have one of the best defenses in the NFL. They don’t give up very many points or passing yards, so while Lawrence should be a fine starting option, his ceiling is much lower than most weeks.

10. Brock Purdy

Matchup: Indianapolis Colts

Brock Purdy was nearly flawless against the Tennessee Titans this week, throwing for 295 yards and three touchdowns in the win. He’s looked really good since returning from his turf toe injury, and now he plays a Colts defense that gives up the third-most passing yards per game. He should be in for another pretty big game on Sunday, so he’s a fringe starter.

9. Jared Goff

Matchup: Pittsburgh Steelers

Jared Goff just had a massive game against one of the best defenses in the league. He put up 26 points in the first half, but was pretty quiet in the second, and Detroit’s offense really struggled. I don’t see him dropping 30 points again this week, but the Pittsburgh Steelers haven’t been great against the pass this week, so a 20+ point performance is certainly on the table.

8. Jordan Love

Matchup: Chicago Bears

Jordan Love has really turned it on these past three weeks. He scored 20+ in back-to-back games and just put up 16 against one of the best defenses in the league in Denver. Chicago’s defense, which he just faced a couple of weeks ago, is not nearly as good as Denver’s, and Love just dropped 20 fantasy points on them. He should be able to hit that 20-point mark again this week.

7. Justin Herbert

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Matchup: Dallas Cowboys

Justin Herbert hasn’t been playing anywhere near his MVP form from early in the season, but he gets to play the Dallas Cowboys this week, who give up the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. I know it’s hard to trust him right now, but QBs almost always hit against Dallas, so he’s a top-10 QB this week.

6. Joe Burrow

Matchup: Miami Dolphins

Joe Burrow had a massively disappointing game in the first round of the fantasy playoffs (I had him in one of my leagues 🥲), but he looked really good in his first two games back, and now plays a Miami Dolphins defense that’s been known to struggle against the pass this season. I think he’ll bounce back in a big way this week.

5. Dak Prescott

Matchup: Los Angeles Chargers

Dak Prescott just produces every single week, but the Los Angeles Chargers have one of the best passing defenses in the league. It’s going to be a battle between one of the best offenses and defenses in the league, but I believe the Cowboys’ offense will win out. This should be an entertaining matchup, and I believe Prescott will get the best of LA.

4. Jalen Hurts

Matchup: Washington Commanders

Jalen Hurts had one of his best performances of the year last week against the Las Vegas Raiders, and now he gets another very favorable matchup against the Washington Commanders. I know Philly’s offense is hard to trust, but so is Washington’s defense. Plus, Hurts has still been a pretty solid fantasy QB despite their offensive struggles.

3. Matthew Stafford

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Matchup: Seattle Seahawks

Outside of one bad game against Carolina, Matthew Stafford has basically been unstoppable. He’s the QB5 in fantasy this year, and that’s with next to no rushing production. He’s good for multiple passing touchdowns every game, no matter who he’s playing, so even though he’s facing a really tough defense, I think Stafford will play well in one of the most important games of the year.

2. Drake Maye

Matchup: Baltimore Ravens

Drake Maye has been on fire this year and is coming off back-to-back 20+ point efforts. The Baltimore Ravens’ defense just shut down the Bengals, but this New England offense has been red-hot all year. Maye and Co. should be able to put 24+ points on the board, so I expect Maye to have himself a day against the Ravens.

1. Josh Allen

Matchup: Cleveland Browns

Josh Allen is so dang good. No matter the weather or the defense he’s facing, he’s going to perform pretty much every single week. The Cleveland Browns have a pretty good defense, but I don’t see them getting too many stops against this Buffalo offense. Allen should once again be one of the best quarterbacks in fantasy football in the semifinals.

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