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Essentials Inside The Story

  • Rams–Seahawks opens Week 16 with division control and seeding leverage at stake.
  • Bills, Cowboys, and Eagles sit in matchup spots bettors consistently misread.
  • Late-season form drives several consensus-breaking staff picks.

Another week of NFL football kicks off tonight at 8:15 pm as the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks clash in a major NFC West showdown that should set the tone for this weekend. There are tons of games that will impact the playoff picture, and as we do every week, the EssentiallySports NFL staff has gone through and picked the winners of every single game.

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After an abysmal Week 14, we bounced back as a staff in Week 15. Everyone got at least 10 of the games right, except for Tim, who went 8-8 and has now fallen one game back in the standings (sorry, boss). It’s been a busy week here at ES, so this week, it will just be Tim and me giving out our predictions, but you can see everyone’s picks in the graphic below.

Here’s how things stand through 15 weeks:

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Luke Hubbard: 102-58 (.638)

Tim Wood: 101-59 (.631)

Abhishek Singh: 82-62 (.569)

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Reubyn Coutinho: 95-52 (.646)

Utsav Jain: 69-35 (.663)

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Ryan Ward: 64-40 (.615)

Nagendra Bisht: 0-0 (.000)

With all that said, let’s hop into the picks and predictions.

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Rams (11-3) at Seahawks (11-3)

Game Time: Thursday, 8:20 pm at Lumen Field

Where to Watch: Amazon

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Game Odds: LAR -1.5, O/U 44.5

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PFF Rankings: LAR Offense 1st, Defense 1st, SEA Offense 3rd, Defense 4th

Recent Matchups: LAR 41-34 win over DET, SEA 18-16 win over IND

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Weather: 48 degrees with a high chance of rain

Luke Hubbard, Senior NFL Writer: The Los Angeles Rams just earned a massive come-from-behind win over the Lions, while the Seattle Seahawks just squeaked by a Philip Rivers-led Colts team. Both of these teams are among the best in the league, but I just think the Rams are better on both sides of the ball. Seattle should give them a run for their money at home, but the Rams come out on top again. Rams 20, Seahawks 17

Tim Wood, NFL Editorial Chief: So I have momentarily abdicated my picks crown to Luke, so I have to pick my spots carefully this week. No more chalk. And he’s made it easy for me out of the gate. All the reasons Luke outlined above, any attempt to weave any kind of logic around narrative with picks is futile. So far, all the reasons Luke said are exactly why the Seahawks will win this game. Seahawks 28, Rams 23

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Eagles (9-5) at Commanders (4-10)

Game Time: Saturday, 5 pm at Northwest Stadium

Where to Watch: FOX

Game Odds: PHI -6.5, O/U 44.5

PFF Rankings: PHI Offense 11th, Defense 9th, WAS Offense 16th, Defense 27th

Recent Matchups: PHI 31-0 win over LV, WAS 29-21 win over NYG

Weather: 42 degrees with a slight chance of rain

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Hubbard: The Philadelphia Eagles blew out Las Vegas last week, but I’m still not convinced they’re all that good. They’ve been playing horribly for weeks now, but luckily for them, they are much more talented than Washington, so they get the job done. Eagles 27, Commanders 17

Wood: As much as the drama side of me would love to see Dallas go 3-0 and Philly go 0-3, it’s not happening. Eagles take care of business right here so they can selectively get healthy in sitting folks over the next two weeks. If the Rams lose here and the No. 1 seed is back in play, this gets trickier. But I think any which way, the Eagles are playing for home-field advantage in at least one round. That should get them over this divisional battle. Eagles 28, Commanders 20

Packers (9-4-1) at Bears (10-4)

Game Time: Saturday, 8:20 pm at Soldier Field

Where to Watch: FOX

Game Odds: GB -1.5, O/U 46.5

PFF Rankings: GB Offense 5th, Defense 7th, CHI Offense 10th, Defense 23rd

Recent Matchups: GB 34-26 loss to DEN, CHI 31-3 win over CLE

Weather: 30 degrees and slightly windy

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Hubbard: This NFC North rematch should be one of the best games of the weekend. Both teams are still very much in play for the North title and the right to host a home playoff game, so they’re both going to give it their all. They both control their own destiny, so the winner of this game is going to feel very good about their chances moving forward. Packers 21, Bears 18

Wood: I gotta go with the home team in a game where I don’t believe in either team. The Packers’ D is still legit without Micah, but I think it’s more of a locker room vibe killer at this point. Bears 28, Packers 20

Bills (10-4) at Browns (3-11)

Game Time: Sunday, 1 pm at Huntington Bank Stadium

Where to Watch: CBS

Game Odds: BUF -10, O/U 42.5

PFF Rankings: BUF Offense 4th, Defense 22nd, CLE Offense 32nd, Defense 2nd

Recent Matchups: BUF 35-31 win over NE, CLE 31-3 loss to CHI

Weather: 38 degrees with high winds

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Hubbard: I don’t need to say much here. Buffalo runs away with this game early. Bills 34, Browns 10

Wood: The Bills aren’t putting that display on in Foxborough only to concede ground now. Bills 42, Browns 21

Chargers (10-4) at Cowboys (6-7-1)

Game Time: Sunday, 1 pm at AT&T Stadium

Where to Watch: FOX

Game Odds: DAL -1.5, O/U 49.5

PFF Rankings: LAC Offense 24th, Defense 11th, DAL Offense 9th, Defense 30th

Recent Matchups: LAC 16-13 win over KC, DAL 34-26 loss to MIN

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Hubbard: Despite losing to the Vikings at home last week, the Dallas Cowboys are 1.5-point favorites over the 10-4 Los Angeles Chargers. It doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me, because Justin Herbert should be able to throw all over this Cowboys defense, and I trust LA to contain Dak Prescott and Co. I’m probably overthinking it, but give me Dallas. Feel like a lot of the money will be on LAC in this game, and Vegas always wins. Cowboys 33, Chargers 28 

Wood: Great points. But I need wins. Chargers 30, Cowboys 27

Chiefs (6-8) at Titans (2-12)

Game Time: Sunday, 1 pm at Nissan Stadium

Where to Watch: CBS

Game Odds: KC -3.5, O/U 37.5

PFF Rankings: KC Offense 13th, Defense 6th, TEN Offense 31st, Defense 18th

Recent Matchups: KC 16-13 loss to LAC, TEN 37-24 loss to SF

Weather: 52 degrees with a low chance of rain

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Hubbard: Even without Patrick Mahomes, the Kansas City Chiefs should win this game. Tennessee isn’t much of a threat offensively, and KC’s defense is still pretty dang good. Chiefs 20, Titans 13

Wood: I don’t care if it’s Gardner Minshew. The Chiefs are playing for pride to get to .500. That matters. I’m definitely rolling with the under here, though. Chiefs 20, Titans 13 (What a copycat. – Luke)

Bengals (4-10) at Dolphins (6-8)

Game Time: Sunday, 1 pm at Hard Rock Stadium

Where to Watch: CBS

Game Odds: CIN -1.5, O/U 50.5

PFF Rankings: CIN Offense 19th, Defense 31st, MIA Offense 22nd, Defense 19th

Recent Matchups: CIN 24-0 loss to BAL, MIA 28-15 loss to PIT

Weather: 80 degrees

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Hubbard: Both of these teams looked like a shell of themselves last week, which makes this matchup way harder to pick. Neither defense is very good, and both offenses can be very explosive at times, but with the weather not playing a factor, I trust Cincinnati’s passing attack much more than Miami’s. Bengals 30, Dolphins 28

Wood: Sorry, Mr. Ewers. Joe Burrow steals your thunder. Bengals 33, Dolphins 24

Jets (3-11) at Saints (4-10)

Game Time: Sunday, 1 pm at Caesars Superdome

Where to Watch: CBS

Game Odds: NO -4.5, O/U 40.5

PFF Rankings: NYJ Offense 30th, Defense 21st, NO Offense 28th, Defense 15th

Recent Matchups: NYJ 48-20 loss to JAX, NO 20-17 win over CAR

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Hubbard: The New York Jets just got 48 points put on them by Jacksonville, and while the New Orleans Saints don’t have the same offense as JAX, they’ve been pretty good recently under Tyler Shough. I think New Orleans takes this one. Saints 22, Jets 17

Wood: This would be a three-game win streak for the Saints. Wow. I just don’t see Brady Cook going in and cookin’. Saints 24, Jets 17

Vikings (6-8) at Giants (2-12)

Game Time: Sunday, 1 pm at MetLife Stadium

Where to Watch: FOX

Game Odds: MIN -3, O/U 44.5

PFF Rankings: MIN Offense 27th, Defense 17th, NYG Offense 24th, Defense 28th

Recent Matchups: MIN 34-26 win over DAL, NYG 29-21 loss to WAS

Weather: 44 degrees

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Hubbard: The Vikings have looked much better the past two weeks than they did the two weeks prior, and the Giants don’t look as competitive as they did before Jaxson Dart got hurt. Neither of these teams is very good, but I’m done picking the Giants to win games. Vikings 23, Giants 20

Wood: I’m done picking against the Vikings. I don’t get it, I don’t get anything about them. But it’s also a strategy where I make my moves this week. Vikings 28, Giants 21

Buccaneers (7-7) at Panthers (7-7)

Game Time: Sunday, 1 pm at Bank of America Stadium

Where to Watch: FOX

Game Odds: TB -3, O/U 45.5

PFF Rankings: TB Offense 24th, Defense 16th, CAR Offense 20th, Defense 25th

Recent Matchups: TB 29-28 loss to ATL, CAR 20-17 loss to NO

Weather: 61 degrees

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Hubbard: I’ve gone back and forth on this matchup for a while now. Both of these teams seem to want no part in winning the NFC South, but somebody is going to have to. I want to say it’ll be Carolina, but Tampa’s offense is finally fully healthy, so I think they get it done. Buccaneers 28, Panthers 19

Wood: Sorry, I just don’t see a world where the Bucs completely poop the bed. I really want to, because this would be a good spot to zig. But I also don’t see Bryce Young stepping up to own the moment more than Baker, either. Bucs 28, Panthers 20

Jaguars (10-4) at Broncos (12-2)

Game Time: Sunday, 4:05 pm at Empower Field

Where to Watch: FOX

Game Odds: DEN -3. O/U 45.5

PFF Rankings: JAX Offense 15th, Defense 8th, DEN Offense 12th, Defense 10th

Recent Matchups: JAX 48-20 win over NYJ, DEN 34-26 win over GB

Weather: 51 degrees

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Hubbard: This might be the game of the week. The Jacksonville Jaguars are playing as well as anybody right now, and the Denver Broncos are riding an 11-game win streak. If this were in Jacksonville, I might go with the Jags, but I can’t bet on the Broncos to lose for the first time since September. Broncos 23, Jaguars 22

Wood: Screw it. This Broncos streak has to end. It’s not good for America, and it’s better for Denver if they shed this and start a new one streak ahead of the playoffs. I’m doing it. I love the Lawrence-Meyers vibes. He’s a different QB since the trade. Let’s go. Jaguars 28, Broncos 24

Falcons (5-9) at Cardinals (3-11)

Game Time: Sunday, 4:05 pm at State Farm Stadium

Where to Watch: FOX

Game Odds: ATL -2.5, O/U 47.5

PFF Rankings: ATL Offense 14th, Defense 20th, ARI Offense 21st, Defense 29th

Recent Matchups: ATL 29-28 win over TB, ARI 40-20 loss to HOU

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Hubbard: Does anybody really care about this game? I certainly don’t. Cardinals by three because of Trey McBride. Cardinals 20, Falcons 17

Wood: I care about it because it’s a spot I think I can zag on you. Falcons 28, Cardinals 17

Steelers (8-6) at Lions (8-6)

Game Time: Sunday, 4:25 pm at Ford Field

Where to Watch: CBS

Game Odds: DET -7, O/U 51.5

PFF Rankings: PIT Offense 26th, Defense 13th, DET Offense 2nd, Defense 5th

Recent Matchups: PIT 28-15 win over MIA, DET 41-34 loss to LAR

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Hubbard: This game is a little more entertaining than the last, but this just feels like a Detroit blowout victory. The last time Pittsburgh played a good team, they lost to Buffalo by 19. Similar game this week. Lions 30, Steelers 17

Wood: Lions need this more, period. The Steelers just need to get to the Week 18 showdown with the Ravens healthy. Lions 28, Steelers 24

Raiders (2-12) at Texans (9-5)

Game Time: Sunday, 4:25 pm at NRG Stadium

Where to Watch: CBS

Game Odds: HOU -14.5, O/U 37.5

PFF Rankings: LV Offense 29th, Defense 32nd, HOU Offense 18th, Defense 3rd

Recent Matchups: LV 31-0 loss to PHI, HOU 40-20 win over ARI

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Hubbard: The Las Vegas Raiders might not score a point in this game. I’m serious. It’s very rare that you see a 14.5-point favorite, much less in a game with an over/under set at 37.5. I mean, the Raiders’ team total is 11.5 points, and I feel like that’s a slam dunk. Texans 25, Raiders 0

Wood: Come on, now. I’ve got Houston covering the overall by themselves. Texans 38, Raiders 14

Patriots (11-3) at Ravens (7-7)

Game Time: Sunday, 8:20 pm at M&T Bank Stadium

Where to Watch: NBC

Game Odds: BAL -3, O/U 48.5

PFF Rankings: NE Offense 8th, Defense 12th, BAL Offense 17th, Defense 14th

Recent Matchups: NE 35-31 loss to BUF, BAL 24-0 win over CIN

Weather: 39 degrees with a slight chance of rain

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Hubbard: I don’t get why the Baltimore Ravens are favored in this game, but I don’t like it one bit. On paper, this feels like a win for the New England Patriots, but they have to go on the road to play a team fighting for their division. Baltimore being favored scares me, because 81 percent of the money is on New England, and the Ravens’ line keeps getting higher. Everything in my gut is telling me to go to New England, but I can’t ignore this betting trend. Vegas knows something. Ravens 28, Patriots 24

Wood: I just don’t see a two-game losing streak that abdicates the division. I think Maye owns the national spotlight again. Patriots 33, Ravens 26

49ers (10-4) at Colts (8-6)

Game Time: Monday, 8:20 pm at Lucas Oil Stadium

Where to Watch: ABC/ESPN

Game Odds: SF -6.5, O/U 46.5

PFF Rankings: SF Offense 7th, Defense 26th, IND Offense 6th, Defense 24th

Recent Matchups: SF 37-24 win over TEN, IND 18-16 loss to SEA

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Hubbard: The Philip Rivers experiment was fun for one week, but I don’t need to see it again. Unfortunately, I will have to see it again on Monday night. Luckily, I’ll be able to focus my attention on Christian McCaffrey, because I have him in fantasy, and he will be the last player in my matchup playing, so if I’m down, all of my attention will be on him. 49ers 26, Colts 14

Wood: I’m rooting for Rivers, and I’d like to see these games matter for Indy, but the ship has sailed. 49ers 24, Colts 17

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