Essentials Inside The Story

  • Will the Ravens' desperation to stay in the AFC North race outweigh the Patriots' superior 11–3 talent?
  • Baltimore’s defense ranks 22nd against the run and 21st against the pass
  • Can Drake Maye bounce back after a poor performance last week?

The New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens matchup on primetime to cap off an excellent slate of Sunday games. The Pats can clinch a playoff berth with a win, but the Ravens need to win this game if they want a realistic shot at winning the AFC North and sneaking into the playoffs.

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While the players are worried about the real playoffs, most of us are worried about the fantasy playoffs. There are plenty of players in this game that you could be considering starting, so I went through, broke down the game, and gave you my best starts and sits for SNF.

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Fantasy Breakdown

Zay Flowers

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Before we get into the start, sit recommendations. Here’s a table breaking down how many points each team gives up to each position group, and where that ranks across the league.

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Position Ravens Rank Patriots Rank
QB 16.41 16th 16.42 17th
RB 23.71 22nd 18.74 6th
WR 33.91 21st 29.90 15th
TE 10.97 6th 15.23 24th
DEF 6.36 18th 5.71 17th

Note: 32nd means they give up the most points. 1st means they give up the fewest points.

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So what does this table mean?

The Ravens’ defense has not been very good this season. They’ve struggled defending both the run and pass this season, but I will say their numbers are a bit skewed because they were very bad in the first couple of months of the season. I was honestly a bit shocked to see the Patriots’ numbers. I thought their numbers would be much better, but it seems they’re really struggled defending quarterbacks and receivers (at least fantasy-wise).

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Best Starts

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TreVeyon Henderson, RB, New England Patriots

TreVeyon Henderson was drafted pretty highly in fantasy drafts, but was very disappointing in the early part of the season. Well, he’s not disappointing anymore. He’s been electric for the Pats, and now he gets to face a defense that gives up 23.71 points per game to opposing running backs. Easy start this week.

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Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens

Zay Flowers has been an incredibly consistent WR2 in fantasy. He’s scoring between 12 and 14 points per game pretty much every week, so while he doesn’t have the high upside of the top receivers, he has a pretty high floor. New England gives up 29.90 points per game to opposing receivers, and with not many other options, Lamar Jackson is going to look Flowers’ way pretty often.

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Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens

Speaking of Jackson, he’s another guy I’d start in this game. New England’s pass defense has been very average this year, and Jackson is working his way out of a slump. I’m not saying Jackson’s going to go off for 25+ points, but he should finish somewhere in the high-teens.

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Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots

Drake Maye gets to face a very similar pass defense to Jackson. The Pats and Ravens are essentially identical when it comes to how many points they give up to opposing quarterbacks, and Maye is having a terrific season, so it would be dumb to leave him off this list, despite his poor play a week ago.

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Best Sits

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Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots

There aren’t a whole lot of guys in this game that are must-sits, but Hunter Henry is one of them. He’s quietly the TE11 on the season, but is coming off one of his worst games of the year and has to play a Ravens defense that gives up the sixth-fewest points to opposing tight ends. Just not a great matchup for the Pats TE1.

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Ravens Defense

I don’t feel great about starting either defense, but I definitely fear for the Ravens. The Patriots have the more explosive offense, especially with Henderson running so well, and couple that with how Maye has been playing, and I just wouldn’t want any part of Baltimore this week.

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