In 2025, we saw some incredible one-year turnarounds. The New England Patriots went from 4-13 to 14-3 and a Super Bowl appearance in just one offseason and the Jacksonville Jaguars also orchestrated an incredible turnaround, going from 4-13 to 13-4.

But while there were a lot of shockers, there were also quite a few disappointments. The Washington Commanders went from runners ups in the NFC to 5-12 while the Detroit Lions went from 15-2 to 9-8 and missing the playoffs entirely.

Shockers and disappointments like this happen all the time in the NFL. That’s why I’m going to try and predict which teams will take the biggest step forward and biggest step back in 2026.

Risers: Dallas Cowboys (7-9-1 in 2025)

The Dallas Cowboys are coming off back-to-back seven-win seasons, but I think they’re poised to take a step forward in 2026. They have all the pieces offensively. If they keep George Pickens and Javonte Williams around, which they should be able to do, they’ll be just fine on that side of the ball.

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The biggest question marks for them are on defense. They have a lot of holes to fill, but they also have two first-round picks, which they can use to fill gaps in their secondary and pass rush. They also can create a boatload of cap space by restructuring Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb’s contracts, so they’ll be able to go out and sign some impact free agents.

The Cowboys may have a lot of holes on defense, but they have the ability to fill them all in just one offseason. And if their offense can play like they did last year, they’re easily a playoff team in 2026.

Projection: 11-6

Fallers: Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)

The Pittsburgh Steelers overachieved a bit last year because of a horrible AFC North. Five of their wins came in their division, and I can guarantee you the AFC North will not be as weak as it was this year in 2026.

I also don’t love the Mike McCarthy hire. I think he’s a fine coach, but he’s basically the offensive version of Mike Tomlin. He’s going to win you some games, but he’s not really going to elevate your team. Also, if Aaron Rodgers doesn’t come back, what are they going to do at quarterback? Draft Ty Simpson? Sign Malik Willis?

There are just too many question marks surrounding this team in 2026, and their 2026 schedule looks pretty daunting. I wouldn’t count on their above .500 season streak continuing.

Projection: 7-10

Risers: Kansas City Chiefs (6-11)

I think this one is fairly simple. The Kansas City Chiefs may not be the juggernaut they were a few years ago, but they’re not as bad as they were in 2026. They took a lot of great teams to the wire, but they just couldn’t finish. Then, of course, Patrick Mahomes got hurt and they just tanked for a better draft pick.

They’re going to get Mahomes a playmaker on offense with the ninth pick. Whether that be Jeremiyah Love, Jordyn Tyson, Makai Lemon or Carnell Tate, I don’t know, but their offense is going to improve. We also can’t forget the fact that their defense was a top-10 unit this year despite the team’s overall struggles. This is a pretty simple pick.

Projection: 11-6

Fallers: New England Patriots (14-3)

This is not because I think the Patriots are going to be bad. I think they’ll be a good team that’ll make the playoffs, but I don’t see them replicating their 14-3 record. Their schedule is going to be much, much harder than it was this year, and Super Bowl hangovers are a real thing.

Drake Maye and Co. will be dancing again in 2026, but I think it’ll be as a six seed instead of a two seed.

Projection: 11-6

Risers: New York Giants (4-13)

The New York Giants should’ve won a lot more than four games in 2025, and now they’re set up to really take the next step in 2025. I love bringing in John Harbaugh. I don’t think he’s an elite coach, but he’s exactly the kind of guy they need to get back to the playoffs sooner than later. They also have their franchise quarterback, running back and receiver in place with one of the most talented defensive lines in the league.

This team has a very solid foundation in place, so now they need to spend in free agency and hit on draft picks. If they can bring in a few impact players in the secondary and get another wideout next to Malik Nabers, they could fight for a playoff spot in 2026.

Projection: 9-8

Fallers: Carolina Panthers (8-9)

The Carolina Panthers were a fun story. Bryce Young had a career year, and they finally made it back to the playoffs despite having a losing record. Even though they only won eight games in 2025, I think they’re going to be fallers in 2026.

The Panthers have a really tough schedule next year. I think the entire NFC South will be improved, but they also have to face Chicago, Detroit, Green Bay, Minnesota, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Seattle and Philadelphia, who will all be in the playoff hunt. I just don’t see them winning many games with that schedule.

Projection: 4-13

Risers: New Orleans Saints (6-11)

The New Orleans Saints completely changed the outlook of their franchise last offseason. They brought in Kellen Moore to be their head coach while also finding their franchise cornerstones at quarterback and left tackle. This team still has a few holes, but they went from no light at the end of the tunnel to almost being able to reach out and touch the light.

The Saints have negative cap space, but they can easily create around $30-40 million. They have a few players they need to re-sign, but they’ll have enough cash to fill some holes at defensive end, linebacker, receiver, running back and/or guard. On top of that, they have the eighth overall pick, which will give them a premium player at any of those positions.

The Saints also ave the benefit of playing in the NFC South, which is the weakest division in the NFL. They won just six games last year, but should be able to easily eclipse that mark in 2026.

Projection: 9-8