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Imago

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Imago

The Super Bowl is right around the corner. In about two weeks’ time, we will crown the 60th Super Bowl champion in NFL history. Will it be the Seattle Seahawks, led by Sam Darnold and Mike Macdonald? Or will it be the New England Patriots, led by Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel? We won’t know until February 8th, but we can certainly try to find out.

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I broke down the matchup, identified some key players to watch and gave my early prediction for who will win Super Bowl LX.

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When New England Has the Ball

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When the Patriots have the ball, all eyes will be on Drake Maye. The second-year man out of North Carolina put up MVP numbers in the regular season, but he’s struggled in the postseason, throwing for 533 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions with three fumbles. His completion percentage has also taken a dive from 72 percent in the regular season to 55.8 percent in the postseason.

Part of the reason for Maye’s struggles has been New England’s offensive line. Maye has been pressured on nearly a third of his dropbacks, and has 149 yards and one touchdown with three fumbles when pressured. He’s also been credited with four turnover-worthy throws when pressured in the postseason, which is half of what he posted in 17 regular season games.

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Seattle’s pass rush has logged just three sacks in two playoff games, but they’ve been able to get after the quarterback at an incredibly high rate. They have 44 pressures this postseason (22 per game), and they have six defensive linemen with 3+. They can put whatever combination they want on the field and still get good pressure with four pass rushers.

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As for Seattle’s secondary, it’s been a tale of two games. In the Divisional Round, they were great against San Francisco, but they really struggled to stop Matthew Stafford, as they have all year. There’s something about the Rams’ passing attack that Mike Macdonald can’t quite figure out, so it’s important for New England to try to learn something from them.

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Can Drake Maye put his playoff struggles behind him and lead New England to a seventh Super Bowl? Or will Mike Macdonald’s unit be too much for the young signal caller?

When Seattle Has the Ball

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When the Seahawks have the ball, I’m really interested to see how Sam Darnold performs under pressure. So far this postseason, he’s been excellent with pressure in his face, throwing for 98 yards and four touchdowns with zero turnovers and zero turnover-worthy plays. He’s been excellent when kept clean, too, completing 82.4 percent of his throws for 372 yards, but all of his touchdowns have come with pressure in his face.

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The real question is, can he keep it up? Because he’s going to have to. New England’s pass rush has been incredible this postseason. Through three games, they’ve logged 100 pressures, 69 hurries and 12 sacks, and Seattle’s offensive line has allowed pressure on 40 percent of Darnold’s dropbacks. The name of the game is going to be how Darnold handles pressure, and if it’s anything like the first two games of the postseason, they should be just fine.

I’m also intrigued to see if Seattle can get their run game going. In the Divisional Round, Kenneth Walker ran rampant, rushing for 116 yards and three scores, but he was held in check on Sunday with 62 yards behind a 3.3 average. New England has held their opponents to 71.3 rushing yards per game and a 3.1 average this postseason. Will Walker get things moving on the ground? Or will New England force Darnold to beat them with his arm?

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Key Players to Watch

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K’Lavon Chaisson, DE, New England Patriots

The top player to watch in the Super Bowl, other than the quarterbacks, is K’Lavon Chaisson. His emergence this season has taken New England’s pass rush to a whole new level, and he has been on fire in the postseason. Through three games, Chaisson has 18 pressures, nine hurries and three sacks. He’s going to put pressure on Darnold, so it will be up to him to respond.

Christian Gonzalez, CB, New England Patriots

Another New England player I’m keeping my eye on is Christian Gonzalez. He’s going to be tasked with slowing down Jaxon Smith-Njigba, which pretty much nobody has been able to do this entire season. If he lets JSN run wild, it’s going to be a long day for New England’s defense, but if he can put the clamps on him, there aren’t many others that can beat them consistently.

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Kayshon Boutte, WR, New England Patriots

The Patriots’ passing game hasn’t been as efficient as it was in the regular season, but Kayshon Boutte has really shown out. He is the only Patriots receiver with over 100 yards this postseason and he’s averaging over 18.4 yards per catch. We saw Puka Nacua torch Seattle’s defense downfield last week, so I want to see the Pats try to do some of the same things with Boutte.

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Nick Emmanwori, S, Seattle Seahawks

Nick Emmanwori is a guy who doesn’t get talked about enough. Mike Macdonald saw how impactful Kyle Hamilton was for his defense in Baltimore and said, ‘let me get another one,’ and it’s worked like a charm. Macdonald has put a lot on his plate as a rookie, but he’s exceeded expectations. He’s the key to this Seattle defense, so I’ll be watching him closely in the Super Bowl.

Cooper Kupp, WR, Seattle Seahawks

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is obviously a player to watch, but Cooper Kupp could play a big role in this game. He has experience in the Super Bowl, and he’s come through with some clutch catches this postseason. The Pats are going to pay a lot of attention to JSN, so there will be opportunities for Kupp to get open and rack up some yards.

Kenneth Walker, RB, Seattle Seahawks

My final player to watch in the Super Bowl is Kenneth Walker. We talked about it a bit already, but the Seahawks need to get him going on the ground. They were able to survive the Rams without much from him, but I would be hesitant to put a lot on Darnold’s plate in this big of a game. If Walker can get the ground game going, it will open up a lot of things for Seattle’s passing attack.

The Verdict

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Since last week, I’ve said the winner of the NFC Championship game would win the Super Bowl, so I’m standing by that and crowning the Seattle Seahawks as my Super Bowl LX champs.

Sam Darnold has been lights out in the playoffs, and I really haven’t been all that impressed by what I’ve seen from Maye. I know Maye’s dealt with some adverse weather conditions, but he hasn’t been nearly as accurate and has turned the ball over at a very high rate.

I also just trust Seattle’s defense more. Mike Macdonald has assembled a unit that finished the regular season first in points allowed, passing yards per attempt allowed and rushing yards per carry allowed. New England’s defense has been great this postseason, but the weather should be pretty nice in Santa Clara, so they won’t be aided by snow this time around.

All signs point to the Seahawks winning the Super Bowl, and I’ll be as bold as to say it will be a two-score game.

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