We’re seeing more parity in the NFL than ever before. Each conference has at least six teams that have a real shot at making it to the Super Bowl. It’s created a league where nobody is safe, and anyone can beat anyone on any given Sunday.

We’ve already pumped out our Week 7 power rankings, but this is different. Today, I’ll be ranking the top five teams in the AFC and NFC based on how likely I think they are to make the Super Bowl.

This was a very difficult list to make, because I think most of these teams are very close to each other, but here’s my shot at ranking the contenders in each conference.

AFC

1. Kansas City Chiefs

Throw records and everything out the window, and tell me you don’t think the Kansas City Chiefs are the best team in the AFC. Everyone else in the conference has question marks, and I just feel the best about the Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes is playing at an MVP level through six games. They’re about to get their best receiver (Rashee Rice) back from suspension, their defense just shut down the best offense in football in the second half, and I still think they have the best coach in the NFL.

In a year where the Chiefs started slow, no other AFC team has stepped up and said, “I’m the new team to beat.” There are certainly teams that could topple the Chiefs in the playoffs, but for now, they’re my Super Bowl favorite (and Vegas’).

What can solidify their spot: Defense gets back to being a top-five scoring defense.

What could kill their chances: Chris Jones and the KC defense continue to have blunders, like Trevor Lawrence’s game-winning touchdown.

2. Indianapolis Colts

If you told me before the season that Daniel Jones and the Indianapolis Colts would be my No. 2 contender in the AFC by Week 7, I’d think you’re crazy, but here we are.

Unless the Colts have a catastrophic collapse, Shane Steichen is the runaway favorite for Coach of the Year. He’s done a masterful job with this offense. They have the best rushing attack in football, and it’s made Jones’ life much easier, which has allowed him to unlock his true potential.

Defensively, there are definitely things to clean up, but they’ve been good enough to start the season 5-1. If they can make even marginal improvements on that side of the ball, they’ll be tough to beat in January.

What can solidify their spot: Defense can go from allowing 25 PPG to 21 PPG.

What could kill their chances: Daniel Jones regresses to his New York days.

3. Buffalo Bills

I know there are a ton of question marks about the Buffalo Bills right now. They’re 4-2, but their four wins have come against opponents with a combined 3-21 record. In the two games they’ve played against good teams, they’ve lost. But when it comes to winning in the playoffs, I put a ton of stock into who you have under center, and there’s maybe one other QB in football I’d rather have than Josh Allen in January.

If the Bills go shopping for a wide receiver at the deadline, preferably someone like Chris Olave or maybe even AJ Brown (though that’s very unlikely), I will feel much better about them. If they had a true WR1 on this team, I think they probably win at least one of their last two games.

Defensively, I am worried a bit about the Bills, but I don’t think they’re that much worse than they were a year ago. If the offense can start clicking again, then their defense won’t be a problem.

This all boils down to me trusting someone like Allen to step up and get the job done in the playoffs.

What can solidify their spot: They add a big-name wide receiver at the deadline.

What could kill their chances: The Chiefs. That seems to be the answer every year.

4. New England Patriots

Slotting in right below the Bills is the New England Patriots. Right now, I think they’re the better team, but they have an inexperienced, though very good, quarterback under center.

Drake Maye has been balling out, but you can’t prepare for a road playoff game in Kansas City, Buffalo, or Indianapolis. We’ve seen great quarterbacks like Dak Prescott perform well in the regular season, and then not show up in the playoffs. I don’t think that’ll be the case for Maye, but you never know.

I do really like their defense, too. Outside of giving up 27 to the Miami Dolphins in Week 2, they’ve held all of their opponents to 21 or fewer points. With the way their offense is playing, if their defense can keep that up, they’re going to win a lot more games than they’re going to lose.

What can solidify their spot: Offensive weapons consistently step up for Maye.

What could kill their chances: Running game continues to be inconsistent.

5. Denver Broncos

I really thought about putting the Los Angeles Chargers in this spot, but then I remembered, defense wins championships, and the Denver Broncos have the best defense of anyone in the AFC, save maybe the Houston Texans.

When the weather’s cold and you’re on the road in Kansas City, who do you trust more, the team with the best pass rush in football or the team with half an offensive line and injuries all over the field? Yeah, give me Denver.

Bo Nix and this offense really need to figure things out if they want to be legit contenders in the AFC, but their defense is so good that they’ll be in every single game they play for the rest of the year.

What can solidify their spot: Nix gets back to playing like a top 10 quarterback.

What could kill their chances: The Broncos’ offense never figuring out their issues.

NFC

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Honestly, I almost didn’t put the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the top spot in the NFC. They won their first four games by scoring in the final minutes, and eventually it’s going to bite them, but isn’t the playoffs all about finding a way to win? It doesn’t have to be pretty, as long as when the clock hits zero, you have more points than the other team.

This team is battle-tested already. They’ve been in close games all year and have come out on top all but one time. Plus, they have Baker Mayfield, who is my MVP pick through the first six weeks of the season. I have some concerns defensively, but their offense can outscore pretty much anybody, and they’ve been able to do that without a lot of their top weapons.

What can solidify their spot: Mayfield maintains this level of play.

What could kill their chances: Their defense keeps having off games.

2. Detroit Lions

Some people are probably low on the Detroit Lions after they were beaten pretty convincingly by the Chiefs on Sunday night, but I’m not. This is still the best offense in football in my opinion, and defensively, they’ve been pretty good despite some injuries at key positions.

Look, anytime you have Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jared Goff on a team with one of the best offensive lines in football, you’re going to be a Super Bowl contender. You can make a case for them to be slotted below our No. 3 team, and I wouldn’t be mad, but I personally have them at No. 2.

What can solidify their spot: Offense stays healthy.

What could kill their chances: Injuries keep piling up on defense.

3. Seattle Seahawks

If you’re a consistent reader, you know how much I love what Mike Macdonald has going on in Seattle. Everyone thought Sam Darnold was a product of Kevin O’Connell’s system last year, but he’s proving everybody wrong. Their passing game is explosive and arguably the best in the NFC. Their run game needs some work, but for now, throwing the ball every time seems to be working.

Seattle’s offense has been the talk of the town (and rightfully so), but what about their defense? They’ve been playing great this season, and just held the Jacksonville Jaguars to 12 points.

This is a team that can absolutely make the Super Bowl if they get hot at the end of the season. I just hope they’re not peaking too early.

What can solidify their spot: They figure out how to run the football consistently.

What could kill their chances: Darnold doesn’t perform in the postseason.

4. Los Angeles Rams

It feels criminal to have the Los Angeles Rams this low, but that just goes to show how tough the NFC is this year.

I think the Rams have one of the best offenses in the league with Matthew Stafford under center. His connection with Puka Nacua is unreal, but even if you manage to contain Nacua, you have to deal with Davante Adams on the other side. Then, they have Kyren Williams, who is not only a threat in the run game but in the pass game as well.

Defensively, the Rams have been really good as well. They have a pass rush that can put consistent pressure on the opposing quarterback, a strong linebacking core, and a secondary that leads the league in PFF coverage grade.

You could put the Rams as high as No. 2, and I wouldn’t argue with you. That’s how close teams 2-4 are in the NFC.

What can solidify their spot: They maintain this level of production on both sides of the ball.

What could kill their chances: Puka misses significant time again.

5. Philadelphia Eagles

I know some of you are going to be upset by this, so let me preface by saying, they could jump from No. 5 to No. 1 in a week.

Jalen Hurts has shown what he can do in this offense when he’s on. I still don’t think he’s a great quarterback, but this system is built for him to succeed, and he’s done it in the past. If he can get on the same page as his receivers and they can get the run game going, they could be the favorites in the NFC.

What can solidify their spot: Learning how to play a consistent offense.

What could kill their chances: Hurts never gets on the same page as his receivers.