Fernando Mendoza is having the best year of his life. The Indiana Hoosiers QB1 is playing the best football of his career, has led the Hoosiers to the National Championship game, and is the presumed No. 1 overall pick. He was hardly on anyone’s radar heading into the year, but he’s balled out and earned himself millions of dollars in doing so. But should he be the No. 1 overall pick? Or even a first-rounder?

Mendoza is undoubtedly the top quarterback in this upcoming draft class, but that doesn’t mean he deserves to be the first overall pick. There are quite a few concerns from people around the league about how he’ll translate to the NFL level, so today, we’re going to highlight some of his concerns and determine whether or not he should be the first overall pick.

His System is Perfect For Him

One thing that makes evaluating college quarterbacks so hard is that it’s tough to figure out how much of their success is because of them and how much is because of the system they play in. Mendoza is having a terrific season, but the system he plays in is a big reason for his success.

Mendoza has two very good receivers in Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr. On top of this, his offensive coordinator, Mike Shanahan, is a brilliant offensive mind and has created a scheme that has allowed Mendoza to make a lot of easy, open throws this season. That’s not Mendoza’s fault, but he hasn’t been forced to make a ton of big-time, tight-window throws because of his scheme and receivers.

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You also have to take into account that just 35.8 percent of his passes were further than 10 yards downfield. Over 60 percent of his throws were under 10 yards downfield, but when you factor in his average depth of target from 0 to 10 yards, which was 4.8, it’s safe to say over half of his throws came within five yards of the line of scrimmage.

Another thing to consider is that 1,465 of Mendoza’s yards in the regular season came after the catch. That is almost exactly 50 percent of his 2,980 regular-season passing yards. That’s not completely abnormal for college, but it does show just how much his receivers did for him this year.

I don’t want it to sound like I’m knocking Mendoza, because he’s been great this season, particularly in the playoffs, but when you evaluate him, you have to take his situation into account.

Deep Ball Accuracy

There’s a lot of concern about Mendoza’s deep ball accuracy. He’s been pretty accurate throwing the deep ball, completing 52.5 percent of his passes 20+ yards downfield, which ranks sixth in the nation, but his 40 attempts rank T-78th, and his average depth of target on those throws (28.8 yards) ranks 91st.

You may be asking why deep ball accuracy is such a concern if he’s sixth in the nation in completion percentage 20+ yards downfield, and I’ll tell you why. When targeting the middle of the field (between the numbers) 20+ yards downfield, he’s 13-for-18 (72.2 percent). But anyone can make those throws. In the NFL, a lot of your deep shots are going to be down the sideline, and when throwing 20+ yards downfield outside of the numbers, he’s 8-for-22 (36.3 percent). To put it into perspective, here are the completion percentages on those same throws from other quarterbacks in this draft class.

Trinidad Chambliss: 15-for-28 (53.6 percent)

Dante Moore: 15-for-31 (48.4 percent)

Ty Simpson: 21-for-38 (55.3 percent)

Carson Beck: 16-for-29 (55.2 percent)

As you can see, Mendoza is well below average on balls thrown 20+ yards downfield outside the numbers, and he has 6+ fewer attempts than the other four top QB prospects. He’s been much better at those throws in the playoffs, but it’s still a big concern for the presumed first overall pick.

Struggles Under Pressure

We haven’t seen Mendoza put under pressure all that often this season, but when we have, he hasn’t been particularly great. Out of the top three quarterbacks in this draft class (Mendoza, Moore, and Chambliss), Mendoza ranks last in completion percentage when under pressure (50 percent), adjusted completion percentage (69.6 percent), interceptions (2), turnover-worthy plays (4), turnover-worthy play percentage (3.9 percent), and pressure-to-sack percentage (15.8 percent). He does rank first in yards (518), but he has nine more attempts than the other two, who sit at 510 and 467.

He hasn’t been horrible under pressure, but Moore and Chambliss have certainly been better. It’s not a major knock, but how you handle pressure is something teams put a lot of stock in when evaluating quarterback prospects.

The Verdict

Putting positional value to the side, does Fernando Mendoza deserve to be the first overall pick in the draft? No, he does not. He’s not a Caleb Williams, Cam Ward, or Joe Burrow-level talent. At his best, I think he’s a more mobile Jared Goff, and at his worst, he’s Sam Bradford. I’m not a professional scout, but I think I’d have a second-round grade on him.

However, if you’re a team like the Las Vegas Raiders and you desperately need a quarterback that can help you get stable, he certainly isn’t a bad pick. If you’re a struggling franchise, you have to take your shot at a quarterback, and right now, the Raiders have the perfect opportunity to do just that. He has some of the tools you want to see in an NFL quarterback, and with the right coaching, he could be a really solid player in this league.

There are things to tidy up, but Mendoza is ready for the NFL. I’d feel much better drafting him 10th than 1st, but positional value will reign supreme, and the Raiders will get a guy that can be a really solid quarterback for the foreseeable future.