On paper, this looks like the perfect year for the Buffalo Bills to finally win the Super Bowl. The Kansas City Chiefs, who have eliminated them in four of the last five years, have been eliminated from the playoffs, so the Bills should be the favorites to represent the AFC in the big game…Right?

Wrong. While the Chiefs have fallen off this year, the Bills have too, just not as severely. They’re still a very good football team. The Bills are 11-5 heading into Week 18, and should be 12-5 by Sunday night. You’d think that’d be good enough for them to earn a top-four seed, but they’ll likely find themselves in either the 6 or 7-seed when it’s all said and done.

Still, no matter where they end up, it’s going to be hard to pick against Josh Allen and Co. in the postseason. Until the clock hits 0:00 and the Bills have lost, they’re always going to have a chance.

I broke down some reasons why the Bills can win the Super Bowl this year, but also a few things that might cut their season short.

Why Buffalo can win the Super Bowl

Want to know why the Bills can win the Super Bowl? Josh Allen is still their quarterback.

Josh Allen is, for my money, the best quarterback in the league. He’s an amazing passer, but his rushing ability tips him over the edge. Through 16 games, Allen has logged over 4,100 total yards and 39 total touchdowns, which may not seem like lofty numbers, but with the new kickoff rules bringing teams’ yardages down, they’re pretty impressive.

Allen has also been incredible in the postseason during his career. He’s only 7-6, but that’s due to no fault of his own. In the postseason, Allen has thrown for 3,359 yards (258 per game) and 25 touchdowns to four interceptions while rushing for 668 yards (51 per game) and seven more scores. That’s 4,027 total yards and 32 total touchdowns to just four interceptions in 13 games. In his six playoff losses, Allen has led the Bills to 10, 19, 24, 24, 29, and 36 points. Those are some pretty incredible stats.

Another reason the Bills can win the Super Bowl this year is because of James Cook, who is having a career year. In 16 games, Cook has rushed for 1,606 yards and 12 touchdowns while adding 291 yards and two scores through the air. He’s given the Bills an elite run game to go along with Allen’s passing ability, and it’s made their offense even more dynamic.

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The third and final reason the Bills are capable of winning it all in 2025 is because of their pass defense. They currently rank No. 1 in the NFL in passing yards per game allowed (163.4 yards) and fifth in yards per attempt (5.9). This pass defense is great, but some of those numbers are inflated a bit because they’re so bad against the run…

Why Buffalo can’t win the Super Bowl

Speaking of Buffalo’s struggles against the run, that’s the No. 1 reason they can’t win the Super Bowl. The Bills rank 29th in rushing yards allowed per game (140.4) and 31st in yards per carry (5.3). They have been flat-out AWFUL against the run, which has killed them in many of their losses.

When they lost to the Falcons early in the season, the Bills let Bijan Robinson run for 170 yards. Not much later, when the Bills lost to the Dolphins, De’Von Achane ran for 174 yards against them. Even in their wins, they’ve struggled. TreVeyon Henderson rushed for 148 on them a few weeks back. Sean Tucker had a 100-yard, two-touchdown game against them just a week after Achane’s big game. Needless to say, they’ve been susceptible to giving up big games on the ground.

Another reason the Bills can’t win the Super Bowl this year is that they just lack the talent offensively. Josh Allen can only do so much. When he had Stefon Diggs, this team was much, much more dangerous. Now that they’ve missed on Keon Coleman and Allen’s best receiver at the moment might be Brandin Cooks, this offense isn’t nearly as scary as it was in the early 2020s.

I still can’t believe the Bills refused to make a move at the trade deadline for a true No. 1 wide receiver. If/when they get bounced in the playoffs, they’re going to look back and wish they were more aggressive, because there’s no guarantee that Kansas City isn’t back in the playoffs next year. In fact, I’d say there is a much, much higher chance they are than they aren’t.

If Buffalo’s going to win the Super Bowl, it feels like this is the year. Their kryptonite is out of the way this year, but unfortunately for them, the year that Kansas City slips up, so will they. And everyone else in the AFC has gotten much better, too. I’ll always believe in this team as long as Allen is under center, but man, it’s hard to see a path for them to win it all this year.