The NFL Most Valuable Player award is one of the most prestigious awards, not just in football, but in all of sports. Every kid that’s played football has, at one point or another, envisioned themself holding up the MVP trophy, and for the second year in a row, we could see a first-time winner.

As it currently stands, Matthew Stafford is favored to win the award, but there’s a second-year quarterback out there who has led his team to an 11-3 record and is among the NFL’s best in almost every passing stat. Drake Maye has inserted himself into the MVP conversation with a sensational sophomore season. He currently has the second-best odds to win the award at +380, but another second-year man is doing very similar things to Maye, but his odds are all the way down at +10000.

Bo Nix has led the Denver Broncos to a 12-2 record while almost matching Maye’s stats in pretty much every category. The two have been neck-and-neck all year long, and with the New England Patriots losing their 10-game win streak (partly due to Maye’s play), and Nix throwing four touchdowns in a huge victory over the Green Bay Packers to extend Denver’s win streak to 10, it felt like it was the perfect time for the odds to make a bit of a shift. But they didn’t. Nix is still miles off Maye in the MVP race despite having a nearly identical resume and doing it against tougher opponents.

So, which guy deserves it more? Today, I’ll be making the case for two of the hottest names in the league and identifying who is more worthy of lifting the MVP trophy at the end of the season.

Comparing Nix and Maye

From a statistical standpoint, these two are very similar. Here’s a table showing each of their stats in major passing categories.

Outside of completion percentage, these two are pretty close in every single statistical category. So how do you decide who is more deserving of the MVP award? You have to look even further than the stats.

The Case For Bo Nix

The case for Bo Nix is pretty obvious. He’s been one of, if not the, most clutch quarterbacks in the entire NFL this season. At times, he’s struggled in the early parts of games, but every time he digs himself into a hole, he finds a way out of it.

Nix’s reputation for being one of the most clutch quarterbacks in the league began in Week 5. The Denver Broncos looked dead in the water through three quarters. They were down 17-3 to the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles, but Nix and the Broncos’ offense turned it on. In the final 15 minutes, Nix completed nine of his 10 passing attempts for 126 yards and a touchdown. He led three straight scoring drives to end the game, including an 11-play, 50-yard field goal drive that put the dagger in Philly.

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That was just the beginning. Two weeks later, the Broncos faced the New York Giants and fell behind 19-0 entering the fourth quarter. It looked like the game was over for Nix, but of course, it wasn’t. Nix completed 16 of his 25 attempts for 174 yards, ran for 46 yards, and scored four touchdowns in the final 15 minutes. The Broncos scored 33 points in the fourth quarter to come back and beat New York, 33-32. It was a heroic effort, and this is when people started to realize that Nix is legit.

Just two weeks after that, Nix and the Broncos found themselves trailing in the fourth quarter again. This time, Denver fell behind the Houston Texans, 15-7, and with the way their offense was playing, there was little hope for Denver. But as always, Nix fought back, scoring 10 points in the final quarter against the best defense in the league (which allows 3.1 points per game in the fourth quarter) to come back and win, 18-15.

A couple of weeks later, the Broncos found themselves in the same situation. They went into the final 10 minutes trailing Kansas City by three. Nix then led the Broncos on back-to-back field goal drives to tie and win the game. Nix was surgical on the final drive, completing four passes for 62 yards, including the game-sealing 32-yard completion to Troy Franklin.

This game didn’t feature a fourth-quarter comeback, but while his counterpart in this exercise was busy losing to his division rival, Nix dropped 34 points on one of the best defenses in the league while throwing for 302 yards and four touchdowns. The Broncos’ win over the Green Bay Packers was a statement, and Nix deserves a ton of the credit for the win.

Nix hasn’t been the most consistent quarterback, but he’s certainly delivered when the Broncos have needed him. They wouldn’t be 12-2 without their defense, but they could very easily be 8-6 if Nix didn’t step up in crucial moments.

The Case For Drake Maye

The case for Drake Maye is a lot more clear-cut. He’s just been fantastic, pretty much all season. After 2024, all the hype was around Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams, and Bo Nix, but Maye worked his butt off during the offseason, and he’s reaping the benefits now.

While Nix has delivered in the fourth quarter when his team has been trailing, Maye hasn’t. But that’s because he hasn’t had to. The Patriots have rarely trailed in the fourth quarter after Week 3, and when they did, Maye delivered just like Nix did.

The first time Buffalo and New England faced off, the Patriots never trailed in the fourth, but they were tied with the Bills with 2:17 left on the clock. Buffalo had all of their timeouts, so the Patriots needed to get into field goal range, but also burn enough time so Josh Allen didn’t get another shot. And they did just that. Maye connected on passes of 12 and 19 yards on the drive to put them within field goal range, and their kicker did the rest, nailing a 52-yard field goal to win it with just seconds on the clock.

After that, the Patriots cruised to a 10-game win streak, largely due to Maye helping them build a big lead in the first three quarters. He’s been lethal all season. Rarely makes mistakes and does what he needs to do to win football games.

His only real blemish came this past weekend against Buffalo. After he helped the Patriots build a 21-0 lead early, Maye and the Pats offense really struggled in the final 2.5 quarters. They only scored 10 more points the rest of the game, and their lone touchdown in the final 30 minutes came on a breakaway touchdown run from TreVeyon Henderson. It was the first time in a while that Maye looked uncomfortable in the pocket.

There will be a crowd out there saying that he didn’t play in any competition, but this isn’t college football. Everyone in the NFL is among the best of the best, and the Patriots didn’t get to choose their schedule. He’s done what he’s needed to do to put the Patriots in place to not just make the playoffs, but win the AFC East for the first time since Tom Brady left.

The Verdict

After much thought and deliberation, I have decided to give the nod to Drake Maye. Personally, I think he’s more valuable to his team than Bo Nix.

Put Jameis Winston on the Broncos, and they’re still an 11+ win team. Put him on the Patriots, and they are probably an eight or nine-win team. I don’t think New England’s defense is as good as Denver’s, so with average quarterback play, they’d be closer to 7-7 than to 11-3 right now.

However, even though I believe Maye is more deserving, if he has the second-best odds, Nix needs to have the third or fourth-best odds. These two have had really similar seasons, both statistically and record-wise. There’s no reason Maye should be +380, and Nix should be +10000. It should be more like +380 and +500.

Both of these guys have had an incredible second year. They lead the top two teams in the AFC and will look to make a deep playoff run in January and possibly February. If I had to pick between the two right now, it would be Maye, but Nix is right on his heels, and if Maye has another bad game, Nix may surpass him in my eyes.