The betting lines have already given their verdicts, and the MVP race belongs to the two quarterbacks who have crafted starkly different narratives this season. Matthew Stafford flipped the race on its head one last time in Week 18, reclaiming favorite status. Meanwhile, Drake Maye’s Week 18 outing sank his standings with Vegas. But is the league going to agree?

The votes are in, and the regular season is wrapped. Now, as February’s announcement looms, we break down the case for both of these stars and talk about a few who came close, but couldn’t cut it in the end. Here’s the last EssentiallySports MVP Ladder for the 2025 regular season.

Drake Maye: The New England Patriots Hero

Drake Maye didn’t light up the stat sheet in Week 18, but only because he didn’t need to. Against the Miami Dolphins, he went 14-of-18 for 191 yards and one touchdown before the New England Patriots decided to rest their star for the playoffs. In their 38-10 demolition for Week 18, the Patriots just needed efficiency. Maye delivered exactly that, posting a pristine 129.4 passer rating without a pick.

His first touchdown, a play of surgical precision meeting aggression, pushed the lead to 23-10 in the third quarter. Beyond that, he just needed to awaken New England’s ground game like never before. It wasn’t the five-touchdown masterpiece he unleashed against the New York Jets in Week 17, but it was textbook quarterback play from a 23-year-old steering one of the league’s biggest turnarounds.

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And here’s what makes Maye’s season really historic. He’s the only player in league history with 4,000+ passing yards, 70%+ completion rate, and 450+ rushing yards. That trifecta of volume, accuracy, and mobility transformed a four-win dumpster fire into the AFC East champions with a 14-3 record. But Maye’s got even more momentum going for himself.

Week 18 also brought a franchise milestone for him. Maye recorded his 13th game with a 100+ passer rating this season. With that, he passed Tom Brady for the most in a single season in Patriots history. What’s more, this is the first time the Pats have won their division since Brady led them in 2019. And even head coach Mike Vrabel knows what Maye has done for the franchise.

“He’s been everything that we’ve asked and he continues to get better. He’s not satisfied,” Vrabel said of his quarterback. “So, I know that our success of where we are right now, today, has a lot to do with Drake Maye.”

The Patriots have locked up the AFC’s second seed. They’ll now host the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, January 11, for their first home playoff game since January 2019. That’s five years of post-Brady struggles erased in one spectacular sophomore campaign. But there’s a hitch.

Maye entered Week 18 as the clear favorite for the MVP title, but his 191-yard, one-touchdown performance didn’t sweep Vegas off its feet. Sitting at +140 odds, his muted finale cracked the door, and Stafford charged through.

Matthew Stafford: Ending the Season With a Bang

Matthew Stafford reminded everyone why veterans own January. The 17-year pro torched the Arizona Cardinals for 259 yards and four touchdowns in the Los Angeles Rams’ 37-20 victory over Arizona. With that Week 18 dominance, he capped a season that ranks among the most statistically dominant campaigns in league history. Stafford leads the 2025 regular season with 4,707 passing yards and 46 touchdowns against just eight picks.

One play from Week 18 captured the energy Stafford has instilled in his squad. In the third quarter, the Rams were trailing 20-16 with 42 seconds left on the clock. Stafford threw a dart to tight end Colby Parkinson; he caught it, gained yards, hurdled a defender, and dove straight into the end zone. The Rams took a 22-20 lead on that play and never looked back.

Stafford’s 2025 campaign made him only the 8th quarterback in league history to have a 4,500+ yards and 45+ touchdown season. Of the previous seven, six won the MVP. The only one left out of this elite club was Drew Brees, but only because Aaron Rodgers overshadowed him that year. But beyond this, Stafford also torched a record that had remained unbroken for more than a decade.

Earlier this season, Stafford threw 28 consecutive touchdown passes without an interception until that streak was broken in Week 13 against the Carolina Panthers. But that shattered Tom Brady’s record of 25 straight from 2010. Stafford now has the longest interception-free TD streak since the league started keeping track in 1978. Even head coach Sean McVay is making the MVP case for him.

“I think Matthew’s the MVP of the league. He played that way,” McVay said after beating Arizona. “Got a lot of respect for a bunch of people in this league, but there’s nobody I’d rather have being the quarterback of the L.A. Rams than Matthew Stafford. His play speaks for itself.”

But even in the face of this praise, the humble veteran chose to deflect the credit towards his teammates.

“[MVP] is an award that is earned by everybody,” Stafford said. “You can’t just go out there and have a great statistical year and not win any games or do any of that kind of stuff, and there’s so many guys that have contributed to a season like that, and I’ve got bigger fish to fry at the moment, so that’s what I’m going to be worried about.”

The Rams have clinched the NFC’s fifth seed. They now travel to Charlotte for a rematch with the Carolina Panthers in the Wild Card round. Despite being the visiting team, the Rams remain the favorites for this matchup. With -180 odds, Stafford is the favorite to get his MVP title at last. But at the rate he’s going, he’s gunning for the Lombardi as well.

The Others Who Tried

Trevor Lawrence (+25000) solidified himself as the distant third option after leading the Jacksonville Jaguars to eight consecutive wins and the AFC South title. Sam Darnold (+40000) guided the Seattle Seahawks to the NFC’s top seed but lacked the stats to compete with the frontrunners. Caleb Williams (+50000) also showed flashes and finished second in the NFC with his Chicago Bears, but never gained traction in the race.

The biggest drop remains that of Josh Allen (+50000). At one point, the Buffalo Bills quarterback was the favorite to win MVP a second time, but uneven performances and some shocking losses kept dragging him down. All of them have playoff berths and could finish the postseason with a bang. But as far as the MVP race goes, they’re just honorable mentions at this point.

This is now Matthew Stafford’s race to lose once more. Drake Maye’s season also screams MVP, but can youth outrun experience? February can’t arrive fast enough. The tightest MVP race in years will soon have its verdict, and we’ll find out who takes the crown at last.