Week 15 of the NFL season is in the books, and with just three weeks left in the season, 12 teams have been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. That means for these 12 teams, while they’re still trying to win games this year, their focus is shifting to how they can improve for next season. And at the forefront of their minds in the NFL Draft.

Every week, I take a look at the new draft order and mock the first 10 picks of the draft. The consensus top players don’t change much, but it’s amazing to see how a few changes in draft position can completely shake up the outcome of this exercise.

If the NFL Draft were tonight, here’s how I think the top-10 picks would go.

1. TRADE: New York Jets via New York Giants (2-12)

Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

The New York Jets need a quarterback, and they certainly have the draft capital to pull off a trade like this. I’m not 100 percent bought in on any of these quarterbacks, but Fernando Mendoza is the cream of the crop, and winning the Heisman Trophy certainly won’t hurt his chances to go No. 1 overall.

With the New York Giants holding the top pick of the draft and having their franchise quarterback in place, there’s going to be a bidding war for that top pick. The Las Vegas Raiders, Cleveland Browns, and New York Jets desperately need quarterback help, and of the three, the Jets have the most assets, which is why I believe they’ll end up being the ones moving up to get Mendoza at this point.

Stats: 71.5 percent completion, 2,980 passing yards, 240 rushing yards, 39 total touchdowns

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2. Las Vegas Raiders (2-12)

Dante Moore, QB, Oregon

After missing out on Mendoza, the Raiders stick at No. 2 and pick the next-best quarterback in this draft class, Dante Moore. The thought for a long time was that Moore would stay another year at Oregon, but with Oregon Offensive Coordinator Will Stein moving on to take the head coach position at Kentucky, it seems more and more likely that Moore could enter the draft this year.

Moore started the year hot, went in a bit of a slump, but has come back out of it and has been playing very well recently. Now, he gets to host a home playoff game and potentially make a push at the National Championship. To make things even better, Moore is only 20 years old. Most quarterbacks coming out of college nowadays are 23 or 24, so getting someone who will be 21 years old as a rookie is a big, big plus.

Stats: 72.5 percent completion, 2,733 yards, 25 total TD, 6 INT

3. Tennessee Titans (2-12)

Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State

The Tennessee Titans, who owned the first overall pick until last week, get to sit on their hands and take the guy whom I believe they would take at No. 1, at No. 3, with two quarterbacks flying off the board with the first two picks. Arvell Reese is my favorite player in the draft. He’s so dynamic. He can rush the passer, he can defend the run, and he can cover tight ends. He’s a do-it-all linebacker who is going to make a massive impact on day one for whoever gets him.

Stats: 62 tackles, 31 run stops, 23 pressures, 6.5 sacks, 2 PBUs

4. Cleveland Browns (3-11)

Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State

I love this wide receiver class, especially the two guys at the top. The Browns didn’t get either of the quarterbacks they wanted, so they got the next best thing: a star receiver to pair with whoever they get next year.

Carnell Tate has been really solid all season, but he’s really broken out in the last month and a half or so. He’s 6-foot-3, a great route runner, and is a deep ball threat despite not having blazing speed (he’s still pretty dang fast, though). He has become a star next to Jeremiah Smith, and now he’s worked his way into the top five in my mock draft.

Stats: 48 receptions, 838 yards, 9 TD

5. New York Giants via New York Jets (3-11)

Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State

If Jordyn Tyson didn’t battle an injury for a good part of the season, he’d probably be the No. 1 receiver taken off the board. But he did, and now he’s fallen a bit behind Tate, but he lands in a much better situation just one pick later.

Jaxson Dart has proven he’s the Giants’ quarterback of the future, and while Wan’Dale Robinson is a fine receiver, losing Malik Nabers for the year really showed that the Giants need to add a true WR2 to the mix to get the most out of their rookie quarterback. The offensive line was certainly in play here, and probably should be the pick, but I went with the flashy option.

Stats: 61 receptions, 711 yards, 8 TD

6. Arizona Cardinals (3-11)

Spencer Fano, OT, Utah

Sometimes it feels like people overthink offensive linemen, as they do with defensive linemen. They always want the athletic freak, when sometimes you have to look no further than their tape. Will Campbell had a lot of doubters last year because his arms were short, but look at him now. The Patriots believed in him, and he’s been one of the best rookies this season (sad to see his season cut short due to injury).

I feel like people are overthinking Spencer Fano. I never see him going higher than eight or nine in mock drafts, and some people even have him as their second-best offensive tackle, but he is the offensive lineman in this draft class. He has allowed FIVE pressures this season and zero sacks. I know the Big 12 is no SEC or Big 10, but that’s still incredibly impressive. Arizona really needs help on its offensive line, so I have them taking the best OL on the board.

Stats: 332 pass block snaps, 5 pressures, 0 sacks

7. New Orleans Saints (4-10)

Rueben Bain, DE, Miami

When I watched the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, all I could think about was having them draft an offensive lineman here. Francis Mauigoa was on my mind. The Saints’ offensive guards suck, and Mauigoa could transition to guard at the pro level. But then I started making this mock, and I got to the Saints at No. 7 and asked myself, “How the hell did Rueben Bain fall to No. 7?” So in the end, I decided to take who I think is the best pass rusher in the draft.

Bain’s sack numbers might not be there, but he’s facing double teams quite often, and has still been one of the most efficient pass rushers in terms of pressures and pass rush win rate. He would be the perfect complement to Chase Young, and I believe the Saints can find an interior OL later in the draft. You don’t get another shot at someone like Bain in the second or third round.

Stats: 57 pressures, 4.5 sacks, 23.9 percent pass rush win rate

8. Washington Commanders (4-10)

David Bailey, DE, Texas Tech

With every passing week, David Bailey gets closer and closer to being my top pass rusher in this class. For anyone who thinks he’s the best, I will not argue with you. If Bain has been one of the most efficient pass rushers, Bailey has been THE most efficient pass rusher in the nation this season, and now he gets to show off in the playoffs.

Washington has a ton of needs, but their defense desperately needs help off the edge. Bailey can rack up sacks with the best of them, so I have him coming off the board in the top-10 and landing in the capital.

Stats: 70 pressures, 13.5 sacks, 22.4 percent pass rush win rate

9. Cincinnati Bengals (4-10)

Francis Mauigoa, OL, Miami

The Cincinnati Bengals will be very happy to be above the Los Angeles Rams in the draft order. They desperately need help on the offensive line, and the Rams are a threat to take one, but with Atlanta’s win on Thursday night and Cincy’s loss on Sunday, the Bengals leapfrog the Super Bowl hopefuls.

With Fano off the board, I have the Bengals selecting the next-best offensive lineman in Francis Mauigoa. The Miami standout played tackle this year, but can move across the offensive line to fill Cincy’s biggest need. His flexibility is what makes him such a highly-touted prospect, and for a team with needs basically everywhere up front, he will be a very welcome addition.

Stats: 414 pass blocking snaps, 9 pressures, 2 sacks

10. Los Angeles Rams via Atlanta Falcons (5-9)

Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State

Rounding out the top-10 is the Rams, who miss out on an offensive lineman, but draft Caleb Downs, who fills an area of need and might be the best overall player in this class. Downs has been one of the best defensive players in the country since he stepped on the field as a true freshman, and after three years in college, he’s ready to become a pro. He’s only 21 years old as of six days ago, and he will probably be a top-10 safety the moment he steps on the field. He can have a Kyle Hamilton-type impact from day one.

Stats: 60 tackles, 29 run stops, 136 yards allowed, 2 INT

Full NFL Draft Order Post Week 15

11. Miami Dolphins

12. Kansas City Chiefs

13. Minnesota Vikings

14. Dallas Cowboys

15. Baltimore Ravens

16. Carolina Panthers

17. Detroit Lions

18. New York Jets via Indianapolis Colts

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

20. Pittsburgh Steelers

21. Philadelphia Eagles

22. Houston Texans

23. Dallas Cowboys via Green Bay Packers

24. Buffalo Bills

25. Chicago Bears

26. Los Angeles Chargers

27. San Francisco 49ers

28. Cleveland Browns via Jacksonville Jaguars

29. New England Patriots

30. Seattle Seahawks

31. Los Angeles Rams

32. Denver Broncos