The AFC and NFC are very different this year. While the NFC has 10-12 teams that could realistically make the playoffs and probably 5-6 teams that could make the Super Bowl, the AFC isn’t nearly as deep, but boy is it loaded at the top with teams like the Denver Broncos, New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills and others.

With the full NFL schedule released, I thought it would be a good time to make some way-too-early predictions. I made predictions for all 272 games this regular season, so at the end of next year, I can go back and see just how wrong I was about everything.

Here’s how things shook out in the AFC in my way-too-early predictions.

New England Patriots

Wins: Jets (2x), Dolphins (2x), Steelers, Raiders, Packers, Lions, Bills, Vikings, Chiefs

Losses: Seahawks, Jaguars, Bills, Bears, Chargers, Broncos

Record: 11-6 (5-1)

Let’s start with the Super Bowl runner ups. The New England Patriots overachieved last year, and while I don’t think they got worse, their schedule got a whole lot tougher. They still have a great defense and an offense that can do some damage, especially if they actually end up trading for A.J. Brown, so they’ll be a threat in the AFC, but I don’t think they win the AFC East…

Buffalo Bills

Wins: Dolphins (2x), Jets (2x), Lions, Chargers, Patriots, Raiders, Vikings, Chiefs, Packers, Bears, Broncos

Losses: Texans, Rams, Ravens, Patriots

Record: 13-4 (5-1)

Maybe this is just because I love Josh Allen, but I think the Buffalo Bills will end up winning the AFC East. Even in a down year, they won 12 games and almost made the AFC Championship, and they definitely didn’t get any worse this offseason. I believe in Joe Brady, so while this schedule isn’t easy, I think the Bills will be one of the better teams in the AFC this season.

New York Jets

Wins: Dolphins (2x), Titans, Raiders

Losses: Patriots (2x), Bills (2x), Packers, Lions, Bears, Browns, Chiefs, Chargers, Cardinals, Broncos, Vikings

Record: 4-13 (2-4)

The New York Jets won three games last year, and that’s about where I have them again this year. Their roster did get better, and their offense could be fun, but I don’t believe in Aaron Glenn or Geno Smith to lead this team to more than four wins, especially with their schedule. They’ll be picking towards the top again next year, and will probably land one of the top quarterbacks because of it.

Miami Dolphins

Wins: N/A

Losses: Bills (2x), Patriots (2x), Jets (2x), Raiders, 49ers, Chiefs, Vikings, Bengals, Lions, Colts, Broncos, Bears, Packers, Chargers

Record: 0-17

Will the Miami Dolphins actually go 0-17? Probably not, but what’s the fun of making predictions if I’m not going to be a bit bold?

This roster is not good. They have a ton of rookies coming in, a quarterback that’s never proven he can be a full time starter, a shaky offensive line, next to no pass rush and a weak secondary. Their best player is their running back, De’Von Achane. If any team is going to go 0-17, it’s this one. They’ll probably squeak out 2-3 wins, but I don’t think a winless season is out of the question.

Kansas City Chiefs

Wins: Raiders (2x), Colts, Dolphins, Broncos, Jets, Falcons, Cardinals, Bengals, 49ers, Chargers

Losses: Broncos, Chargers, Seahawks, Bills, Rams, Patriots

Record: 11-6 (4-2)

The Kansas City Chiefs won six games last year, but they still had a top-10 scoring defense, and pretty much all of their losses came in one score games against a playoff team. As long as Patrick Mahomes is healthy for Week 1, they’re going to be in playoff contention. I am a bit worried about their secondary, but as long as Mahomes is under center, they’re a playoff threat every year.

Denver Broncos

Wins: Raiders (2x), Chiefs, Rams, Seahawks, Cardinals, Steelers, Dolphins, Jets, Patriots, Chargers

Losses: Jaguars, 49ers, Chargers, Chiefs, Bills

Record: 12-5 (4-2)

The Denver Broncos earned the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC playoffs last year, and after a decent offseason, there’s no reason to believe they can’t be in that conversation again. The only big concern is Bo Nix’s ankle. Will he be 100 percent by the start of the season? And even if he is, will it continue to hold up? Doctors said it’s a pre-existing condition, which is not a great sign whatsoever. If he’s okay, they’ll be in the running for the AFC West title, but if not, it could be a long season. I’m betting on the former here, though. Never want to bet on a player getting injured.

Las Vegas Raiders

Wins: Dolphins, Browns, Chargers, Cardinals

Losses: Chiefs (2x), Broncos (2x), Chargers, Saints, Patriots, Bills, Rams, Jets, 49ers, Seahawks, Titans

Record: 4-13 (1-5)

I like what the Las Vegas Raiders have done this offseason. They brought in an exciting young coach, made some big free agent signings on both sides of the ball and drafted their franchise quarterback. However, this team still has some big holes, and I’m not sure they’re ready to win a lot of games in year one, and that’s okay. 2026 is just a stepping stone for this team, and hopefully in 2027 they can really start to mount a charge.

Los Angeles Chargers

Losses: Bills, Rams, Texans, Buccaneers, Raiders, 49ers, Chiefs, Broncos

Record: 9-8 (3-3)

The Los Angeles Chargers didn’t really do much this offseason. Outside of signing Tyler Biadasz, they didn’t make any big free agency additions and their first round draft pick was used to replace an edge rusher they lost in free agency. They also refused to address the guard position, which was their biggest need coming into the offseason. This team didn’t really improve, while others around them did. It feels like 10, maybe 11, wins is their ceiling.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Wins: Browns (2x), Bengals, Colts, Saints, Texans, Jaguars, Ravens, Titans, Falcons

Losses: Patriots, Buccaneers, Bengals, Eagles, Broncos, Panthers, Ravens

Record: 10-7 (3-3)

The Pittsburgh Steelers got better this offseason, but their schedule certainly got harder. At least they officially know Aaron Rodgers is returning, but I don’t think that automatically makes them a playoff team. I like the roster, but I still don’t trust their offense to be super great, and it’s year one under a new head coach. They’ll be right on that playoff bubble, but I think they narrowly miss out.

Baltimore Ravens

Wins: Browns (2x), Saints, Cowboys, Titans, Falcons, Bills, Buccaneers, Bengals, Steelers

Losses: Colts, Bengals, Jaguars, Chargers, Panthers, Texans, Steelers

Record: 10-7 (4-2)

The Baltimore Ravens are the betting favorites to win the AFC North, but just like with Pittsburgh, I think they fall short. I do still have them in the playoffs at 10-7, but they’re the 7-seed and just sneak in over the Steelers (just like they did last year). I don’t think they had a bad offseason – they brought in some solid players – but I also don’t think it was great. They lost one of the best centers in the league and their offensive line is still a big question mark. They will also be scratching and clawing for a playoff berth.

Cincinnati Bengals

Wins: Browns (2x), Buccaneers, Dolphins, Ravens, Titans, Falcons, Steelers, Commanders, Saints, Panthers, Colts

Losses: Texans, Steelers, Jaguars, Chiefs, Ravens

Record: 12-5 (4-2)

Maybe I’m a bit too bullish on the Cincinnati Bengals, but they’re my pick to win the AFC North. We all know how great this offense is when Joe Burrow’s healthy. Even when he’s not, they still typically pretty good. Their defense was a major concern, but I love how they attacked it this offseason, bringing in guys like Dexter Lawrence, Boye Mafe, Bryan Cook and Cashius Howell. Plus, Cincy has the easiest schedule in the AFC North by a pretty wide margin. Don’t be surprised when they’re a top-four seed this year.

Cleveland Browns

Wins: Jets

Losses: Steelers (2x), Ravens (2x), Bengals (2x), Jaguars, Buccaneers, Panthers, Titans, Saints, Texans, Raiders, Falcons, Giants, Colts

Record: 1-16 (0-6)

The Cleveland Browns are a much better team than they were a year ago, but my god, this schedule is not easy. They only play three teams that I can say with absolute certainty will be bad this year – the Jets, Titans and Raiders. And none of those teams are push overs, they all got better this offseason as well. Outside of them, there’s no “easy” game on their schedule. Plus, I’m a bit blinded by my disgust for Deshaun Watson (as are many people), so if he’s actually their starter, I will not root for them a single time.

Houston Texans

Wins: Jaguars (2x), Titans (2x), Bills, Bengals, Colts, Cowboys, Titans, Giants, Chargers, Browns, Ravens, Commanders, Eagles, Packers

Losses: Colts, Steelers

Record: 15-2 (5-1)

It’s not bold to be high on the Houston Texans, given how well they played at the end of last year, but I’d like to think it’s bold to say they’ll go 15-2 and be the clear No. 1 team in the AFC. I just love this defense. They were the best defense in football last year, and they only got better with guys like Kayden McDonald and Reed Blankenship joining the mix. I’m not a C.J. Stroud fan, but with an upgraded offensive line and running back room, I’m confident he can lead them to a 23-25 PPG average. And with their defense, that’s all they’ll need most games.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Wins: Browns, Broncos, Patriots, Bengals, Colts, Ravens, Giants, Titans, Commanders

Losses: Texans (2x), Eagles, Titans, Bears, Steelers, Cowboys, Colts

Record: 9-8 (2-4)

The Jacksonville Jaguars shocked the world last year, but their schedule got a whole lot tougher and they lost their best defender in Devin Lloyd and their second-best offensive player in Travis Etienne this offseason, and they didn’t do a whole lot to replace either of them. I still think the Jags are a good team, but they’re going to be fighting for a Wild Card spot, not the division title.

Indianapolis Colts

Wins: Titans (2x), Ravens, Dolphins, Texans, Giants, Browns, Jaguars

Losses: Chiefs, Texans, Commanders, Steelers, Vikings, Jaguars, Cowboys, Eagles, Bengals

Record: 8-9 (4-2)

The Indianapolis Colts’ fate really comes down to Daniel Jones. He’s going to play, but how healthy will he really be? It only takes 9-12 months to come back from an Achilles tear, but it really takes two years before you feel like yourself again. If he’s actually 100 percent, they’re going to win 10+ games, but I don’t see this offense being terribly efficient, especially early in the season as Jones ramps up. And the start of their schedule is brutal, so if they start slow, there might not be time to make it up.

Tennessee Titans

Wins: Giants, Browns, Chargers, Jaguars, Raiders

Losses: Texans (2x), Colts (2x), Jets, Eagles, Ravens, Bengals, Cowboys, Commanders, Lions, Steelers, Jaguars

Record: 5-12 (1-5)

Last, but certainly not least, is the Tennessee Titans. I love what Robert Saleh is building. Getting Brian Daboll to call plays is huge, and they made a lot of big additions this offseason. But they still have a good amount of holes on their roster, especially in the trenches, and that’s where games are won or lost. They’ll be great in two years, but 2026 will not be their season. But it was never supposed to be.

AFC Playoff Picture

After 136 games, this is what the AFC playoff picture looks like with my predictions.

1-seed: Houston Texans (15-2, 5-1)

2-seed: Buffalo Bills (13-4, 5-1)

3-seed: Denver Broncos (12-5, 4-2)

4-seed: Cincinnati Bengals (12-5, 3-3)

5-seed: New England Patriots (11-6, 5-1)

6-seed: Kansas City Chiefs (11-6, 4-2)

7-seed: Baltimore Ravens (10-7, 4-2)

Just Missed Out

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7, 3-3)

Los Angeles Chargers (9-8, 3-3)

Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8, 2-4)

If you want to find out how the AFC playoff picture plays out, make sure to check back in with EssentiallySports.com in a few days, when I release my full way-too-early playoff predictions.