The NFL isn’t an easy or fair business. Teams have one goal: make the Super Bowl, and if you can’t get them there, they’ll be willing to move without you. Sometimes, even if you do make a Super Bowl, it might not be good enough.

There were 10 head coach openings in 2026. From the Tennessee Titans firing Brian Callahan after one and a half seasons to the Baltimore Ravens letting John Harbaugh go after 18 seasons, NFL teams are clearly more willing to move on from their coaches if they can’t find success. So what do head coaches need to win in 2026, or they’ll be looking for a job in 2027?

5. Nick Sirianni, Eagles

The Philadelphia Eagles are cutthroat. Nick Sirianni has five seasons with the Eagles, earning a 59-26 record and two Super Bowl appearances, including winning it all in 2025. Despite his success, I’m not sure if there’s been a season Sirianni’s name hasn’t been floated as a hot-seat candidate.

Philadelphia made the playoffs in 2025 but faced controversy the whole way. From rumored locker room problems to coaching staff struggles, Sirianni didn’t have a strong lead on the Eagles’ playoff run.

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It has been reported that Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie is disappointed with the wasted opportunities in 2023 and 2025. Despite double-digit wins in those seasons, Philadelphia failed to advance in the playoffs. If the Eagles can’t make it past the Wild Card round in 2026, it may be Sirianni’s last time as their head coach.

The percent chance of getting fired after 2026: 40%

4. Zac Taylor, Bengals

The Cincinnati Bengals should be better than they are; that’s just the reality of their situation. In seven seasons as the Bengals’ head coach, Zac Taylor has a 52-63-1 record. But Taylor’s win percentage gets better over the last five seasons, with a 46-38 record.

Joe Burrow has been the bright spot for the Bengals roster, and they have built around him. Despite this, Cincinnati has missed the playoffs in each of the last three seasons. This is mostly due to injuries to Burrow. While Taylor can’t control injuries, Burrow’s injuries have come from the team’s lack of protecting their superstar quarterback.

It’s almost impossible to warrant keeping Taylor as the team’s head coach past 2026 if they fail to reach the playoffs for a fourth straight season.

The percent chance of getting fired after 2026: 50%

3. Dave Canales, Panthers

The Carolina Panthers made the playoffs for the first time since 2017, but it wasn’t a traditional playoff run. The Panthers won the NFC South with an 8-9 record. Their lackluster winning record translated directly into the playoffs, losing in the Wildcard. Carolina did make it close against the Los Angeles Rams in their playoff loss, however.

Head coach Dave Canales is now 13-21 in his two seasons as a head coach and could be a candidate to lose his job in 2026. Canales’ career essentially revolves around Bryce Young‘s development. If Young turns it around next season, Canales is likely safe for at least one more year. But a bad year for the young quarterback would likely mean another bad season for the Panthers.

The NFC South is a bad division. If you have what you believe to be your franchise quarterback, you should be winning the division consistently. A failure to do so would call for a coaching change.

The percent chance of getting fired after 2026: 65%

2. Todd Bowles, Buccaneers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the most complete roster in the NFC South. Accordingly, Todd Bowles has led them to the playoffs in three of his four seasons as the head coach. Despite his success, it hasn’t felt good enough.

The NFC South should’ve been a gimme for the Buccaneers in 2025, but a second-half meltdown saw them miss the playoffs to the 8-9 Panthers. On top of Bowles’ disappointing season, he hasn’t been able to find his rhythm in the playoffs. The Buccaneers’ head coach has a 1-3 postseason record, with his only win being over the Eagles in the Wild Card in 2023.

Quarterback Baker Mayfield is entering the final season of his contract. The veteran quarterback has played at a high level despite Tampa Bay’s lack of success, and with the potential to lose him after this season, Bowles may be on his way out, too.

The percent chance of getting fired after 2026: 70%

1. Aaron Glenn, Jets

New York Jets head coach Aaron Glenn has only had one season as a head coach but is already the biggest candidate for not being a head coach after the 2026 season. The Jets went 3-14 in 2025 and were one of, if not the worst, teams in the NFL.

You can’t fault Glenn. New York has one of the worst rosters in the NFL, and he was put in a difficult situation. The Jets have fully committed to rebuilding for the future. They traded away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, netting multiple first-round picks.

It was possible for Glenn to be one-and-done in 2026, but he received another chance for the 2026 season. Glenn and the Jets did a coaching staff purge, and the young head coach will get another chance to earn his position if he can turn things around next season.

The percent chance of getting fired after 2026: 80%