Most people have had Josh Allen leading the MVP race ever since February. And across the AFC, he’s been the obvious favorite. But former NFL quarterback and 17-year veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick sees things differently going into the 2026 season.

“To me, I’m looking at Mahomes,” Fitzpatrick said on The Rich Eisen Show. “I kind of think he’s the favorite in my mind to win MVP this year.”

He then explained why he feels that way.

“Because of the injury and the amount he has had to put into getting healthy this offseason,“ Fitzpatrick added. “The last few years, doubt is starting to creep in; people are starting to talk about, ‘maybe he is not the top quarterback anymore? Yes, he has the rings, but look at these guys that have outplayed him the last few years.’

“I think there’s enough of a narrative there that’s going to drive him even more,” he explained. “I do think sometimes, having to hit reset, the focus that he has put on rehabbing his body and getting ready, I see him as my favorite for MVP this season.”

Back in 2022, sitting down with Adam Schefter, he named Josh Allen his favorite quarterback in the league. And now, four years later, the answer has changed.

It’s a bold call considering Mahomes’ numbers over recent times. From 2018 to 2022, he became the most effective quarterback, winning two NFL MVP awards. However, that was not all; his performance had declined, with a dip in the passer rating from 105.2 to 89.6 within three years.

Still, he’s only 30, his completion percentage held above 62 percent even in his worst year, and he’s shown he can still close out games when it matters.

So how does he stack up against Josh Allen, the guy most people already have penciled in as the favorite?

Both became starters in 2018, and the rivalry that followed has been one of the best in the league. They’ve split nine meetings, with Allen winning four of five regular-season matchups. But in the playoffs, Mahomes has been unbeatable, going 4-0 across two AFC Championships and two divisional round games.

The career numbers lean Mahomes’ way too. He’s completed 66.2 percent of his passes to Allen’s 64.0, and he’s thrown for nearly 6,000 more yards. His touchdown-to-interception ratio is better as well, 267 to 85 compared to Allen’s 220 to 94, and his career passer rating sits at 100.8 against Allen’s 94.4.

Then there’s the hardware. Three Super Bowl rings to zero. Two MVPs to one. Six Pro Bowls to four, all in two fewer career games than Allen has played. The numbers still favor Mahomes. But Josh Allen still has plenty going for him, and this debate isn’t as one-sided as the stat sheet might suggest.

Mitch Morse chose Josh Allen over Patrick Mahomes

Mitch Morse isn’t ready to hand this era over to Mahomes just yet, even if he thinks Mahomes ends up with the better career resume.

“He’s going to win more Super Bowls, but I feel like it’s Josh Allen’s time,” Morse said on Throwdown Thursday last month.

The situation works in Allen’s favor in more ways than one right now. Mahomes is still rehabbing from his torn ACL last December, with no clear timeline for his comeback, and while Fitzpatrick sees that as extra motivation, it could just as easily slow him down.

Pete Prisco has seen enough. His CBS Sports Top 100 list puts Josh Allen at No. 3 overall, the second-ranked quarterback behind only Matthew Stafford. Allen’s 2025 numbers slipped from the year before. Prisco isn’t worried. He still carried Buffalo and should bounce back under the new playcalling.

The real gap between these two teams comes down to their offensive unit. Kansas City’s receiver room is a mess right now. Rashee Rice is dealing with off-field issues, which means Travis Kelce is likely to shoulder the load again while Xavier Worthy and Tyquan Thornton try to prove they’re ready for a bigger role. It’s fair to wonder if that group can keep up with what Mahomes is capable of.

Buffalo has its own question marks, but nothing close to that level. D.J. Moore and Khalil Shakir headline the group, and Moore already knows Joe Brady’s offense from their time together in Carolina, where he topped 1,000 yards under Brady’s system. Add James Cook in the backfield, and Allen’s supporting cast simply looks more settled.