Last year, when the NFL decided to reopen talks for the media rights, nobody was wondering if the networks would pay. Having the biggest entertainment broadcasting show in the US, the only question was how many billions of dollars they would receive. However, the league did not anticipate the Federal Government joining the negotiating table: Last month, Donald Trump’s Department of Justice (DOJ) opened an antitrust investigation against the NFL, with multiple sources reporting that FOX chairman Rupert Murdoch was allegedly behind these developments.

The DOJ will look into whether the league is playing fair and whether the league’s massive TV deals are just a way to kill competition, simultaneously verifying if these ‘exclusive’ deals are just a legal way to fleece the public. According to a report by the Wall Street Journal, FOX owner Rupert Murdoch, who’s well into his 90s, is still playing hardball. He reportedly grabbed dinner with Trump back in February to pull some strings. 

The report noted that, “Murdoch and his top lieutenants warned Trump that if streamers gained rights to more games, it would kill broadcast networks (like Fox).”

Shortly after that dinner in February, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) launched an inquiry into the migration of sports to streaming services. Moreover, Senator Mike Lee also called for a federal look into the league’s business practices, citing the rising costs of streaming NFL and other games. 

Earlier, in March, Mike Lee called on the DOJ’s Acting Assistant Attorney General Omeed Assefi and FTC Chairman Andrew Ferguson to “probe whether the law governing rights to air games serves consumers in the age of streaming.”

According to reports, the Senator sent a letter, noting, “I request that your antitrust enforcement agencies examine the Sports Broadcasting Act and its applicability to current media landscape.”

Based on the  Sports Broadcasting Act of 1961, the sports leagues have been able to merge their individual teams’ TV rights into massive packages for deals with multiple networks. These deals push thousands of fans into spending about $1,000 on cable and streaming services if they want to watch NFL games during the season.

“The Subcommittee on Antitrust, Competition Policy, and Consumer Rights welcomes your expertise as we evaluate whether the statute continues to serve consumers or should be revised to reflect modern market conditions,” added Lee, calling streaming “a new trend in televised sports that may harm American sports fans.”

Now, the Department of Justice is officially investigating the NFL’s media deals. For Murdoch, the motive is simple. He’s trying to stop the league from gaining the upper hand before their next big negotiation turns into a fight for Fox’s future.

Although the NFL isn’t just sitting back while the government pokes around. The league sent its top media executives to meet with the FCC. The league argues that about 87% of their games are available for free TV broadcast, and all the local games air over-the-air in home markets, stressing that the current model benefits both fans and regulators.

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell personally reached out to Susie Wiles, the daughter of legendary broadcaster Pat Summerall, at the White House.  Goodell took this chance to make the case that the new media model will actually be fairest for the fans. 

According to the Wall Street Journal, the DOJ’s investigation probably won’t lead to an actual lawsuit. The FCC is also not expected to take any formal action. 

Despite all the noise about “exclusive streaming,” they’re reportedly already moving forward with a plan to give Netflix even more games next season.

The economics behind the FOX and the NFL broadcasting deal

Right now, Fox is locked in a broadcasting deal with the NFL till 2033-34. The network gives a massive $2.25 billion check every year to the league to retain its streaming rights. However, the deal also has an opt-out clause following the 2029-30 season. Using the clause, the NFL can scrap FOX and take their Sunday afternoon games package to the open market.

Based on earlier reports, the NFL was ready to scrap the opt-out clause if FOX agreed to pay higher fees. This could have meant guaranteed broadcasting rights for Sunday afternoon games till the mid-2030s. However, FOX is unwilling to hike their payments immediately. 

The WSJ reports that FOX could cough up higher fees only if the contract for the rights extends beyond 2033-34. However, the league is reportedly unwilling to make this compromise. Unless either side budges, we are in for a massive showdown in 2029 that could reshape the sports broadcasting landscape.