While the NFC is very deep and has 12+ teams that could make the playoffs, the AFC is much more top-heavy. Even the number of Super Bowl wins in the last five years indicates that. The NFC has won three, and all came from different teams, while the AFC’s two wins came from the Kansas City Chiefs.

I don’t think they have as many teams that will be competitive, but when you get to the top, boy, it gets scary. There will be a playoff race, but there are 4-5 teams that I feel pretty good about guaranteeing a postseason spot. The AFC playoff race is expected to be more about seeding than who actually gets in, and as I was going through each team’s opponents for the upcoming season, there were a lot of games that piqued my interest.

Here are six games that are going to define the AFC playoff picture in 2026.

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

Do I even need to explain myself here? Every time the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs square off, it’s absolute cinema, and this year should be no different.

The Chiefs had a down year in 2025, winning just six games even though Patrick Mahomes was healthy for a lot of the year. But it’s not like they weren’t competitive. Seven of their 11 losses came by one score against playoff teams, and two of them came without Mahomes leading the charge. They lost some key secondary pieces this offseason, but they had a solid draft, and I fully expect them to be in the playoff hunt.

As for the Bills, they also had a bit of a down year, but they still managed to make it to the AFC Divisional Round and took the 1-seed in the AFC to the wire. If it weren’t for a questionable interception call in overtime, they very well could’ve been in the AFC Championship game. They still have some defensive issues to fix, but they had a pretty strong offseason as well.

If these two teams return to form, this game could have a big say in who ends up with the 1-seed in the AFC. And even if they don’t, they’ll both be playoff contenders, so a win or loss here could change the outcome of their season.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos earned the 1-seed in the AFC last season and were a freak Bo Nix injury away from making it to the Super Bowl. If Nix were healthy, I fully believe Denver would’ve pulled it out against the Patriots and represented the AFC in the big game. But as my mom says, if ifs and buts were candies and nuts, we’d all have a Merry Christmas (I don’t know if that’s an actual saying, but shout out my mom.)

Who did the Broncos dethrone for the 1-seed in the AFC? The Chiefs. Again, the Chiefs had a down year last season, but there’s no reason to believe they can’t turn things around and be right in the mix for the top seed again in 2026. As long as they have Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, I will never count them out.

A great thing about this matchup is that we get to see it twice, once in Denver and once in Kansas City. If one team can sweep this series, it will set them up big time for the rest of the year.

New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos

How about a rematch of the AFC Championship game? That ought to be a big one.

The New England Patriots came out of nowhere last season and completely shocked the world, winning 14 games and claiming the 2-seed in the AFC. They had a very easy schedule, but still managed to knock off the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos en route to a Super Bowl appearance. Obviously, the Super Bowl didn’t go too well for them, but it was an incredible turnaround nonetheless.

The AFC Championship game was actually not very entertaining. Bo Nix was hurt, these teams boasted two of the best defenses in the league, and the weather got ugly in the second half, but if both quarterbacks are healthy in this game, there’s no reason this game won’t be one of the best of the year.

Two storied franchises with Super Bowl aspirations meeting to potentially determine the 1-seed in the AFC? Sign me up.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens

Thought we’d go this whole time without talking about the AFC North? They all took the year off last season, but the AFC North is always one of the most interesting divisions to watch, and the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens should be at the forefront of the conversation.

“But what about the Steelers? They won the AFC North last year!” Well, I don’t care. They stumbled backwards into the division win, and I think the Bengals and Ravens both got a whole lot better this offseason, while the Steelers still don’t even know if they have a quarterback.

The Bengals always have one of the best offenses in the league when Joe Burrow is healthy, and now they actually have some semblance of a defense. They added Bryan Cook, Boye Mafe, Dexter Lawrence, and Cashius Howell to the mix, so even if they have an average or slightly below average defense, they’ll be in the AFC North race.

The Ravens are always in the mix, even though they’re in year one under a new head coach. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry spearhead one of the best rushing attacks in the league, while Jesse Minter is looking to return this defense to their dominant form.

I believe the AFC North will come down to these two teams, and if one of them sweeps the series, they’ll likely take the crown.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens

I know I was just talking trash about the Steelers, but it would be dumb to count them out completely. Aaron Rodgers is eventually going to stop being a prima donna and announce his return to the NFL, and if that happens, they could be a threat again.

Offensively, the Steelers made big improvements, bringing in Michael Pittman Jr., Germie Bernard, Max Iheanachor, and Rico Dowdle. And defensively, they added veteran corner Jamel Dean and high-upside safety Jaquan Brisker to a unit that ranked 17th in scoring. They should be an above-average unit on both sides of the ball, but my question is, will they be great enough at anything to beat out the Ravens and Bengals?

You could say the Steelers vs Ravens or Steelers vs Bengals should be on here, but I went with Baltimore because of their heated rivalry. These two hate each other, and if the AFC North comes down to these two duking it out in Week 18 again, I’m sure they’ll both remember how last year ended. And even if neither of these teams wins the AFC North, they’ll both be in the mix for a Wild Card spot, so this two-game series will be super important.

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars

There are two teams I’ve neglected throughout this article, and it’s not because I don’t think they’ll be in the AFC race, but it’s because they don’t really play any of these big teams. However, the Houston Texans’ and Jacksonville Jaguars’ series is going to be a big one.

The AFC South is going to be a three-horse race, but I ultimately think it’ll come down to Houston and Jacksonville. Whichever one of those two comes out on top will earn a top-four seed (probably the 3-seed at worst) and home-field advantage, while the other will hit the road for the Wild Card Round. We saw this play out last year with the Seahawks and Rams. Even though LA was the second-best team in the NFC, they were the 5-seed after losing the division and had to go on the road for every playoff game, and it ended up costing them in the NFC Championship.

Will Liam Coen’s offense come out on top? Or will DeMeco Ryans’defense shut them down? Whichever team wins this matchup will put itself in a great spot heading into the postseason.