Arch Manning came into 2026 as a Heisman candidate and the widely expected Round 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. But given how he’s performed in the season so far, it might be better for the Texas Longhorns QB to stay back in college. ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky, a former NFL quarterback, put it bluntly on X.

“Arch should definitely go back to school (as of right now) and definitely not at Texas,” he wrote.

Orlovsky is one voice of many echoing the same thought. On Monday’s CBS College Football Show, CBS Sports analyst Pete Prisco said Manning should probably return to school, just not at Texas.

“If Arch goes back to school and the reality is he probably should go back to school, I don’t think he should go back to Texas if [Steve Sarkisian] is the coach.

“For whatever reason, it’s not working in this system. And if he goes somewhere else and he stinks, then we know it’s him. If he goes somewhere else and he’s really good, then we know there was a real problem with the Texas system,” Prisco said.

Ran Carthon, a former NFL general manager, followed with a destination: Miami. FOX Sports’ RJ Young has previously suggested Indiana as a possible fit.

ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. had already gone there. On First Draft, he said, “You’ve got to go back to college for another year,” and added that if Manning does declare, he should land with a team that can sit him for three years, like Jordan Love behind Aaron Rodgers. He has the option, as he redshirted in 2023, so he still has one year of eligibility left and could return in 2027 instead of declaring for the draft.

Arch Manning has been with the Longhorns since 2023 and is in his fourth season with the team. A change in system has worked well for some quarterbacks in his position, as it did for Carson Beck, who transferred to Miami from Georgia after one bad year with the Bulldogs. Beck eventually made it to the National Championship game and was drafted in the third round of the 2026 Draft by the Arizona Cardinals.

But does Manning need a change, too?

The reason for all this noise is a season that has gone sideways for Manning. Through six games, Manning has completed 63.9% of his passes for 1,295 yards, 11 touchdowns, and five interceptions, after throwing seven interceptions in 13 games last season. Crucial turnovers from his game cost Texas the losses to Oklahoma (and the No. 1 ranking) and Florida.

Texas lost 27-24 to Oklahoma after Manning threw two fourth-quarter interceptions: a 42-yard pick-six by safety Peyton Bowen. A week later, the Longhorns blew a 17-3 lead to Florida, and Manning fumbled late in the fourth quarter. He finished 14-of-20 for 173 yards and a touchdown.

“I told (Sarkisian), I expect myself to play better. I haven’t put good film on tape for the last five weeks, and I’m going to be better. I’m going to be better for my teammates. I’m going to be better for myself, and I’m going to be better for my coaches,” Manning said after the game.

Texas entered the Oklahoma game 4-0 as the top-ranked team in the country. Two losses later, it is No. 19 and sits at 4-2 overall and 1-2 in the SEC.

Sarkisian is sticking with his quarterback. He says redshirt freshman KJ Lacey Jr. gets first-team reps every week, despite reports of an uptick.

“I need to see a better version of Arch Manning,” Sarkisian said.

Sarkisian said everything is being evaluated after the Florida loss. Texas hasn’t scored a third-quarter touchdown in five straight games, putting the offense on the back foot in the fourth quarter. Mannin was able to save face for himself and the Longhorns with that 21-point comeback against Ohio State in the fourth quarter.

His next chance to change the conversation is when Texas hosts Ole Miss. Manning is expected to start. It is the first meeting between the schools since 2013, and the opponent carries family history: Manning’s grandfather Archie and uncle Eli both starred at Ole Miss and have their numbers retired there.