At this point, it just can’t be a coincidence anymore. Baker Mayfield has had a strange habit of finding himself on the wrong side of a quarterback decision. First, it happened when the Browns proudly drafted him No. 1 overall in 2018, watched him take them to the playoffs, and then blindsided him by pursuing Deshaun Watson in 2022. However, after brief stops at Carolina and Los Angeles, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were supposed to feel like home. But hold that thought because things seem to be spiralling faster than expected. 

And it’s not just us saying that. The signs are clear. Despite arriving to the Bucs in 2023 on a one-year, $4 million deal and delivering two straight playoff seasons, the front office seems almost hesitant. All things considered, it might not be wrong to say that the team is fearful of not getting a proper return on investment anymore. The result? A possible fractured relationship, and a quarterback who’s getting increasingly unsettled, per insiders.

“I think the money was there. The deal, the two-year extension, three-year deal, would have placed him in the top five highest-paid quarterbacks in the NFL, from what I understand,” Schefter said on the show. “I think the issue to Baker is that if you’re a franchise player, you deserve more than a two-year extension. And I think the length was what irritated him and caused him to say he felt disrespected.”

That frustration is easier to understand when you look at what Mayfield did after arriving in Tampa.

He survived his one-year audition in 2023, and also won the starting job, threw for 4,044 yards and 28 touchdowns, led the Bucs to the NFC South title and earned a new three-year, $100 million contract. He then followed it with the best statistical season of his career in 2024, throwing for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns while completing 71.4% of his passes. That 2024 explosion is a big part of why the current negotiation looks so different from the one that brought him to Tampa

Mayfield entered the Bucs as a quarterback trying to rebuild his market. He is now comparing himself with a market that has moved dramatically since he signed that deal. Twelve quarterbacks currently make at least $50 million per year, including Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence and Brock Purdy, the three quarterbacks Mayfield’s camp reportedly pointed to as contract comparisons. Yet there is a reason Tampa may not be ready to make that leap.

Mayfield’s 2025 season was a step back. He finished with 3,693 yards, 26 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, a 63.2% completion rate and a 90.6 passer rating, all notable drops from his 2024 numbers. The Bucs started that season 6-2 but collapsed down the stretch, going 2-7 after their Week 9 bye and finishing 8-9, missing the playoffs.

That doesn’t make 2025 a poor season in isolation. Mayfield still started all 17 games and threw for nearly 3,700 yards with 26 touchdowns. The problem for Tampa is that it came directly after a season in which he looked like a genuine top-tier quarterback. The team now has to decide whether the 2024 version was the new normal or whether 2025 was a warning about what a long, expensive commitment could look like. There is also a lesser-known wrinkle that could help explain why Tampa stopped at two new years.

A recent Pewter Report analysis pointed to the NFL’s “funding rule,” which requires teams to place future fully guaranteed compensation above a $15 million deductible into escrow. That means a longer deal with significant guarantees can tie up a large amount of an owner’s cash well before the salary is actually paid. The rule is real; its role in the Mayfield talks is not confirmed. Pewter Report’s Joshua Queipo believes it could be one reason the Glazer family has been reluctant to structure a longer, heavily guaranteed deal for Mayfield. That theory becomes more interesting when you consider Mayfield’s age and the contracts his camp is using as benchmarks.

Jordan Love, Brock Purdy and Trevor Lawrence are all in their mid-20s, while Mayfield is 31. Tampa could therefore be willing to pay Mayfield at a high annual rate without wanting to carry the same long-term risk attached to a younger quarterback.

For now, Mayfield remains under the three-year, $100 million contract he signed in 2024. That deal was later reworked in 2025, giving him $30 million in guaranteed money for 2026 after the final year initially carried no guarantees. The original contract also included incentives that could have pushed its value to $115 million. His $33.3 million average annual salary currently puts him 16th among quarterbacks.

If no long-term deal is reached, Mayfield can hit free agency in March 2027. Tampa could also use the franchise tag, which is currently projected to land around $47.7 million for a quarterback. But that option comes with its own complication: the Bucs would have to carry that salary while deciding whether to negotiate another long-term deal or potentially trade him.

And that is where 2026 becomes more than just another season for Mayfield. He is in the final year of his deal after a stalled extension, while Tampa evaluates whether he can rebound from last season’s regression. Mayfield, meanwhile, is confident: “I think we’re going to shock a lot of people this year.”

That confidence fits his pattern. He has often responded best when doubted, from winning the job in 2023 to his 2024 breakout. Now the question is whether he can prove he’s worth a longer commitment in Tampa.