The Houston Texans’ playoff hopes took a serious hit last week, not just because they lost to the Denver Broncos, but because they lost CJ Stroud in the process. The quarterback is in concussion protocol and won’t suit up this week against the Jacksonville Jaguars. And Jacksonville defensive end Josh Hines-Allen knows exactly how the game is going to play out without CJ.

”If CJ doesn’t play, they’re gonna make it very simple and get the ball to the playmakers that they have. They have Nico, they have Kirk. They wanna establish the run pretty well. So, if I was them, I’d keep it pretty simple. They play great defense. So we gotta be able to score points. We’ve been running the ball pretty well these last few weeks.” Allen said.

He’s probably right. Without Stroud, the Texans’ playbook likely shrinks to something more conservative.

They’ll be heavy on the run, resort to short throws and quicker reads. The problem is, running the ball hasn’t exactly been their strength. Houston ranks 22nd in rushing offense, with just 871 yards on the ground through midseason.

The Jaguars, meanwhile, have quietly built one of the league’s tougher fronts.

Statistically, they’re middle-of-the-pack at 15th in total rushing yards allowed, but there’s more.

Over the last month, they’ve tightened things up considerably, and overall, they sit third in the NFL in rush defense, giving up just 86.9 yards per game and 695 total yards through eight contests.

That means Houston will need to find production somewhere else, and that usually means Nico Collins. The challenge is that Jacksonville knows it. If the Jaguars can take Collins away and force Davis Mills (or whoever gets the start) to go through full-field reads and lean on his secondary targets, the Texans could be in for a long afternoon.

Even with some injuries in the secondary: Jourdan Lewis questionable, Travis Hunter Jr. and Eric Murray on IR, Jacksonville still has enough talent with Greg Newsome II and Montaric Brown to make Collins’ life difficult. The Texans’ wide receivers will be in for a long night.

It’ll also be interesting to see how Houston’s backup quarterback Davis Mills steps up.

Big stakes for backup Davis Mills

We’ve seen this story before. When a backup quarterback steps in, his first instinct is usually to lock in on his top target, and that’s exactly what the Texans can expect from Davis Mills on Sunday. The problem is, if Houston wants to keep its playoff pulse alive, Mills can’t just play like a fill-in. He’s got to look like a QB1.

After stepping in for CJ Stroud last week, Mills went 17-of-30 for 137 yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions. He looked comfortable enough running the offense, avoided big mistakes, and kept things steady. But that’s not going to cut it this week. The issue wasn’t moving the ball, but finishing drives.

Houston went 0-for-3 in the red zone and 3-for-17 on third down against Denver. Yes, the Broncos have one of the league’s toughest red-zone defenses, but those are the kinds of numbers that lose games. You can’t come away empty when you get close.

If the Texans have any shot, the connection between Mills and Nico Collins will have to lead the way. The two have a built-in chemistry that goes back to 2021, when both entered the league as rookies.

“Obviously got drafted here with Nico back in 2021. I’ve thrown a lot of footballs to him over my time. Then this offseason, when the rookies were new to the team, I got a lot of reps with them in the spring and during camp and built a lot of trust with those guys,” Mills said.

The Texans and Jaguars both understand what’s at stake in the AFC South, and neither team can afford to slip. That puts a lot of pressure on the backup quarterback. Let’s see if he delivers in the clutch.