When does a quarterback begin to sweat out their weight in a game? It’s on third downs, in fourth quarters, and during two-minute drills. That’s when the question becomes, can you move the chains when your team needs it most? Coming out of Clemson in 2021, Trevor Lawrence was hailed as the savior who was supposed to push the Jaguars to their 8th playoff appearance and, maybe, a Lombardi. The newly appointed GM Trent Baalke believed he had scouted a generational talent. But five years later, whether or not that promised transformation has arrived depends on who you ask, as the verdict still hangs in the humid Florida air.

On July 22, when veterans report to training camp, fans and critics alike will inch closer to their answer. The Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence have not thrived when it matters most—on third downs and HC stability. Lawrence’s inability to sustain drives or march deep into opposing territory has plagued the team. The QB finds himself tangled in the same issues year after year, as he is also on his fourth head coach. The franchise has shown little patience, dismissing coaches before they could settle, largely due to their failure to bring the best out of the franchise QB.

Lawrence entered the league under Urban Meyer’s chaotic run, which was wrapped up by Darrell Bevell as interim HC. Then came Doug Pederson, whose 4–13 record earned him the boot last season. Now, this mammoth task falls on Liam Coen. He is the latest name trusted with fixing Jacksonville’s most valuable asset and has the most suitable resume to achieve this. The ex OC of the Buccaneers and Rams, Coen’s philosophy has worked elsewhere. But if he fails, he may join the list of short-lived tenures.

Sports data journalist Daniel Griffis recently shared his view on X. “The #Jaguars have a problem on 3rd Down. It’s up to Liam Coen to help Trevor Lawrence fix it.” He came with hard stats: On third downs, Trevor Lawrence was 29th in conversion percentage, 37th in NFL rating, 38th in completion percentage. Numbers this poor demand more than excuses. Analysts have debated who bears the blame when critical downs fail. Is it the QB or the leadership?

Sure, some of the blame can be attributed to the ever-changing faces in the coach room. But ultimately, Trevor Lawrence must play better on third downs. Jacksonville‘s franchise quarterback has to produce in key moments. It’s what defines NFL careers. And it’s where Coen’s system has to shine. Pressure is part of the gig. But now, it’s personal.

Coen’s scheme is built to keep quarterbacks in control. He ensures they never feel boxed in at the line. With the Buccaneers, he adapted to injuries and inexperience. The Bucs improved from worst in rushing yards to fourth-best. That was with three returning linemen, a rookie center, and a rookie running back. His balance helped offset the loss of stars like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. It gave Baker Mayfield structure and options. Now, Jacksonville hopes for the same spell to break their curse.

Stat attack: Tampa Bay converted 50.9% of third-downs in 2024—best in the NFL!

While Coen maps out a turnaround, Lawrence has also spoken on this season’s drive, acutely aware that he needs a standout season.

Trevor Lawrence’s rollercoaster “prime”

Trevor Lawrence has had anything but a smooth start. Through his first four seasons, the Jaguars quarterback has posted 69 passing touchdowns and 46 interceptions. His career passer rating stands at 85.0. The highs have been clear, but so have the struggles.

The 2021 first overall pick had a rough rookie season with interception issues. In Year 2, he bounced back strong. Lawrence earned a Pro Bowl nod and led one of the best playoff comebacks in recent memory. Then came 2023, marred again by interceptions. In 2024, injuries held him back, and the offense floundered under ex-HC Doug Pederson.

Now heading into Year 5, Lawrence knows the stakes. He signed a $55 million AAV extension last season. The pressure is real. “I feel like this is like getting into my prime,” he said on the Pardon My Take podcast. “I got a lot of good years left ahead of me, and I need to really turn it on.”

Lawrence is leaning on the fresh start with new offensive coordinator Liam Coen. “I really feel good about the situation we’re in,” he told Pro Football Network. “I love coach Coen and the whole staff.” He also praised the team’s offseason additions. “Just good dudes, good players, too. But I really feel like we’ve done some great things this offseason.”

Last season, Lawrence threw only 11 touchdowns across 10 games. Jacksonville lost eight of those. The production wasn’t there. But the former Clemson standout believes 2025 could flip the script. With a healthy lineup and a new scheme, he feels ready to get his career on track and deliver the breakout fans have waited for.