No one questions what Jayden Daniels accomplished as a rookie. He stabilized a chaotic quarterback room, carried a flawed offense into the postseason, and joined a rare tier of dual-threat production with over 3,500 passing yards and nearly 900 on the ground. But the real comparison isn’t to his draft class. It’s to Lamar Jackson. And that’s where the problem begins. Of the eight quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era who’ve rushed for 800 yards or more in a season, only Jackson has done it more than once. Everyone else regressed. In Washington, the concern is whether Daniels can survive the statistical cliff that tends to follow the kind of year he just had.

In the 2024 season, Daniels covered a staggering 891 yards while rushing, but it came through 148 carries, which, no doubt, is exceptionally high for a quarterback. Historically, only eight QBs in the Super Bowl era have rushed for over 800 yards in a season,  and even they typically decline the following year. Most quarterbacks see almost a 400-yard drop-off in rushing when attempting to replicate high-output seasons, and that is what they fear for Daniels.

Yet most agree that while rushing yards may dip, due to his passing prowess and situational usage, Daniels will not have a season of failure. John Keim from the Washington Post cited, “Daniels’ toughness and running ability is a ‘double-edged sword.” Analysts echo that regression in rushing is probable, although Daniels’ talent remains unquestioned.

Michael Fabiano, via Gilberto Manzano from ‘SI’, shared his take on Daniels’ 2025 season and expectations. His words emphasized a similar take as what many have feared before him: “Daniels was a fantasy beast as a rookie, and he’ll be one of the first five quarterbacks picked in 2025 drafts. However, be aware that rushing for another 891 yards will be difficult. Heading into last season, quarterbacks had rushed for 800-plus yards in a single season eight times in the Super Bowl era. Among those quarterbacks, Lamar Jackson is the lone player to rush for more yards the following year (2024), and the average decrease is 398 rushing yards among active quarterbacks (Randall Cunningham missed ’91). Daniels should remain a high-end fantasy starter, but expect some rushing regression.”

While analysts project Daniels will regress on the ground, falling short of his 891 rushing yards rookie season and unlikely to repeat Lamar Jackson’s consecutive 800‑yard seasons, another looming concern shadows Washington’s momentum. A ghost from the past, standing tall in their present.

A Jayden Daniels’ performance dip might decrease the Commanders’ playoff chances

That concern? The Commanders themselves are entering 2025 viewed as a long shot to make the playoffs, with sportsbooks placing their postseason chances below 60%. The Washington Post analysis has the team’s win-over-under at 9.5, pointing out a middling power rating and defensive inconsistencies. It gives a 28% probability for a losing season, while BetMGM odds signal a near-even chance of missing the playoffs, Commanders +115 to miss vs. -140 to make. The skepticism arrives due to tougher scheduling, stronger division rivals, and the specter of the sophomore slump.

A fantasy superstar remains, but regression is nearly inevitable. Losing nearly 400 rushing yards aligns with historical patterns, and even the legendary Lamar Jackson couldn’t sustain the flair after two seasons. As preseason hype dims, the reality sets in: Daniels’ rushing stats will likely fall, and the Commanders face a tougher path to the playoffs. Two-time Super Bowl winner Damien Woody weighed in his take on the issue, saying, “Jayden Daniels could have a better season, but the Washington Commanders might take a step back… I thought the Washington Commanders overachieved last year.” So will Daniels be able to rescue his team? Or will he, too, succumb to what the analysts predict?

Coming off a career-making rookie season, Jayden Daniels is virtually certain to see a decline in rushing production, mirroring the broader trend among dual-threat quarterbacks. And while the Washington Commanders themselves head into 2025 under a cloud of doubt, the franchise is navigating turbulence on two fronts: statistical regression and playoff uncertainty, leaving the swagger of last season in need of validation under fresh pressure.