Here we are, Week 9, the halfway point of the regular season. There’s a bunch of teams that have proved they have what it takes to get to the playoffs. But there are a few that have just about avoided being entirely disappointing that you still wouldn’t bet on. At 4-5, Joe Burrow’s Cincinnati Bengals aren’t exactly favorites, but it’s clear they’re still trying to make it over the line. Their recent trade for Khalil Herbert is an indication of that, though a puzzling one.

Herbert had his best year with the Chicago Bears in 2022, with 4 rushing touchdowns and one passing touchdown. He only started 1 game, though he did appear in 13, rushing 731 yards. After that, his performance declined, despite him being given more opportunities in 2023. This year, with a relatively injury-free Bears side, Herbert hasn’t had much play, but the Bengals still snapped him up. But Joe Burrow defended the trade, saying “It’s something that we needed, I think. I’m glad we went out and tried to get better.”

Fitting this trade in just before the trade deadline has raised a couple of eyebrows. Matt Sidney wrote to call the trade an underwhelming move if the Bengals were trying to improve their offense. And it’s not like the Bengals valued Herbert all that highly themselves. They only traded a 7th-round 2025 pick to the Bears for Herbert. But still, Burrow stood firm by his team’s decision. When journalists asked him what he’d do if Herbert didn’t know the right spot to put himself in, he responded, “I can lean over and tell him what to do.”

Joe Burrow himself has had a few standout performances this year, of course. With 5 touchdowns against the Raiders this week and against the Ravens last month, he’s tied for most touchdown passes in a game this season with Lamar Jackson, who threw just as many against the Bucs. But he’s also dealing with the kind of team where he can throw 5 touchdowns and lose (as they did against the Ravens). You need to build up the team around you at that point. How the Herbert trade will help in doing that is unclear, and their playoff aspirations remain in the lurch.

Where do the Bengals’ playoff aspirations stand post-Herbert trade?

Standing as they do in the AFC North, it’s a competitive division. The Bengals have two of the toughest teams in the league to contend with, in the Steelers and the Ravens. Yet the competitive nature of the division means neither has been completely dominant. The Steelers stand at 6-2 and the Ravens at 6which is -3, definitely in better stead than the Bengals at 4-5. That means, at the very least, it’s not a proper mathematical impossibility for the Bengals to climb out of their rut.

The Bengals’ next three games come against the Ravens, the Chargers, and the Steelers. The Baltimore Ravens can have unpredictable dips in quality. Their defeat against the Browns a couple weeks back was certainly upsetting. But they’re a competent side who’ve already beaten the Bengals 41-38 earlier this season. The Los Angeles Chargers have had a decent showing this season too, at 5-3. The two sides might find each other evenly matched.

But it’s the Pittsburgh Steelers under Russell Wilson that’ll be the real challenge. They’ve been on a 4 game win streak ever since Wilson took over and they’ve not looked back once. They are for sure playoff contenders and the favorites from their division. Frankly, no amount of offensive shuffling on the Bengals’ part seems likely to bring a real challenge to the Steelers’ position. Especially now, with only half the season left. Still, we must wish Herbert and Joe Burrow and all the other Bengals boys our best. Football’s only interesting if everyone’s got a fight in them.

If you’d like to hear more about the NFL’s global growth, be sure to check out our latest Think Tank Exclusive, featuring Emily and Erin Griffin.