The offseason carousel continues to spin round and round faster than ever this year. And the stories it’s producing could fill a book titled “NFL’s Greatest Hits.” Right at the center of it all right now is the once Mr. Irrelevant, 49ers QB Brock Purdy. In a single weekend, the guy has jumped straight up to Mr. Relevant in the league. With a $265 million contract, Brock Purdy now ties seventh in the league in the list of highest-paid QBs. And if all goes well, we’ll be seeing him leading the charge for the 49ers well through 2030. But, yeah, there’s a ‘but’; sources around the league think it might not be all fun and football for Purdy after all.

As Adam Schefter wrote, “49ers underwent major changes this offseason, moving on from several key players, all with the understanding that they’d soon be paying Brock Purdy a massive contract after having the best bargain in football the past three years. Now it’s official: Purdy gets five years, $265 million, including $181 million guaranteed.” And that was that. A $181 million guaranteed ought to put a smile on anyone’s face. And from the looks of it, HC Kyle Shanahan is betting on Purdy big time to break their 31-year-old Super Bowl curse. But if he’s not able to do just that, there may be some hidden writings on the wall, and in his contract.

Here it is. According to PFT’s Mike Florio, the whole deal looks a little sketchy. As he put it, “why would you let this be known in the spot where bad news goes to die, not good news goes to thrive. – It’s five o’clock east coast time when the news comes out. That’s just odd from the get-go.” Well, there’s some truth to it. It’s a massive deal. Shouting off of rooftops with a gigantic neon sign at prime time seems like the apt way to go.

Florio added, “The new money always is the thing that gets pushed because it makes the deal look better. It makes the agent look better. All that matters is the length of the contract. It’s a five-year extension on a one-year deal for a six-year 45 million per year contract. And look, that’s not bad.” But here’s where it gets interesting.

As Mike Florio believes, there are three key factors here. “What’s the signing bonus? How much is fully guaranteed at signing? And what is the cash flow for the first three years?” At least for now, there’s an answer to one of those questions. SI’s Albert Breer has noted, “Purdy will get $215 million over the first four years.” But this didn’t convince Florio.

Doubling down on it, he said, “Specifically, when can the 49ers get out of this deal? – once we find out whether or not the 49ers can make an easy or at least not impossible exit if Purdy regresses. – Let’s see what this contract looks like when we dig into the details.” Purdy hasn’t exactly had a golden season. He got just 20 TDs and 3,864 yards last season. Add 12 INTs to that, and suddenly it looks like he’ll have a lot to prove this year.

If Purdy’s performance doesn’t peak in 2025, things might start to look a little irrelevant again for him. And if history is any indication of the future, we may be looking at another scenario like Colin Kaepernick.

The Colin Kaepernick parallel for Brock Purdy

NFL histories draw up such interesting parallels that we can’t help but look back every time something new happens. Rolling into 2014, Colin Kaepernick had a record deal with the 49ers that made everyone in the league do a double-take. A $126 million, seven-year deal. Seven years to be the face of the franchise. It looked like Kaepernick would lead the 49ers through a blaze of glory. But it unraveled rather quickly.

Three seasons of performance decline, with an additional seasoning of controversies surrounding his protest. And all of a sudden, he was staring down a dark corridor from which there was no return. After the three seasons, Kaepernick only got around $39.4 million from his contract and walked away.

Kaepernick only had two things written in stone. A salary north of $640,000 in 2014, and a $12.3 million signing bonus. He wrote the rest on flash paper. It went ‘poof’ like that vault of money in the Now You See Me magic trick. Back then, reportedly, he had a $61 million guaranteed contract, but the fine print told a different story.

It’s $61 million only if you suffer a career-ending injury. Whoa, right? So, naturally, analysts like Florio are skeptical about the Brock Purdy deal. They don’t want to know the numbers. They want to comb through the fine print to see what’s what. As Florio put it, “Colin Kaepernick got a deal that was regarded as this awesome, spectacular thing. And then when the deal was broken down and the details came out, it’s like, somebody’s full of something on this.” So that’s it.

The message is, wait for the complete contract details before you start buying premium properties. But as we wait for the details of the contract, one thing is certain, at least for now. The 49ers have made a big bet on Brock Purdy. Whether it pays off or not, it will all depend on Kyle Shanahan’s offense. And, of course, his 2025 performance.