There exists a methodology to predict the reaction of markets and stock exchanges based on the outcome of the Super Bowl. This methodology was coined and introduced in 1978 by Leonard Koppett, known as the Super Bowl indicator. What is it and how accurate it has been over the years?

The SB time is special for everyone. As part of American festivities, everybody enjoys one or the other aspects of it. But what if one could predict market behavior based on the results of the final NFL season game?

A Super Bowl for stocks?

Sportswriter Koppett’s theory suggests that Dow Jones goes on a bull run if a team from the NFC wins the Super Bowl. While it’ll be a bears market if the team from AFC wins the Lombardi Trophy. Bull signifies market growth and bear suggests a market downturn.

Super Bowl was introduced in 1967 and when Koppett came out with his theory. Its prediction was 100%. However, it has dropped to 72% by 2023, being correct 41 out of 57 times.

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However, when looking at the indicator in recent history, it has been abysmal. From 2004 to 2023, the indicator has only predicted the market outcome only 6 times, a mere 30%. So will it be correct this time around?

The Chiefs’ bear claw or the 49ers’ bull horns?

According to the indicator, a victory for the Kansas City Chiefs will signify a recession. And a win for the San Francisco 49ers will indicate a growth period. This being a rematch, four years later, the Super Bowl LIV’s outcome could help a lot.

In 2020, the Chiefs of the AFC won the SB against the NFC’s 49ers. According to the indicator, this would suggest a downturn in the market. However, by the year’s end, the S&P 500 showed a growth of 15.76% in price return. This once again disproved the non-scientific theory.

Do you believe in the Super Bowl indicator? Let us know your thoughts in the comments.

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