Two weeks left, three quarterbacks standing. The MVP odds board tells you everything. Matthew Stafford is clinging to the favorite status at -200, Drake Maye just surged to +230, and Josh Allen’s fallen to +2800 despite winning. For the first time this season, the top 3 of this MVP ladder have remained the same.

But what looked like a coronation a month ago is now full-blown chaos. Stafford blew a 16-point lead. Maye delivered against a former MVP. Allen looked unimpressive, beating Cleveland. The scoreboard lies sometimes, but Vegas doesn’t. This award might go to whoever stumbles least, not who shines the brightest. Welcome to the final stretch of the 2025 regular season and our Week 17 EssentiallySports MVP Ladder.

3. Josh Allen: Looking Mortal in Unlikely Places

Josh Allen beat the Cleveland Browns 23-20, sure. But what we called a winnable game last didn’t turn out quite that way. 12-of-19 for 130 yards with zero passing touchdowns? That wasn’t MVP football. This is the third time this season Allen’s been held without a TD pass. James Cook carried the offense with 117 rushing yards and two touchdowns, while Ty Johnson ran for the third. That’s not how reigning MVPs close out their repeat campaigns.

The defining moment of this Week 16 slump? Allen scrambled backwards to escape pressure, nearly giving Cleveland a safety before falling over himself. He came up limping and never looked the same the rest of the game.

Top Stories

Sean Payton Announces Retirement Plans as Broncos HC Demands Improvement From Bo Nix & Co. Before Playoffs

Dez Bryant Unloads on Jerry Jones & Cowboys Over ‘Blackmailing,’ Defends Micah Parsons in Negotiations

Philip Rivers Announces Retirement Decision After Colts Benched 44-YO QB

Former Packers QB Makes Decision on Shark Tank’s Offer for His $850K Business

Sean McDermott Announces Bad News for Bills After Massive Update on Josh Allen’s Injury

To be fair, the Buffalo Bills won their fourth straight and clinched a playoff spot as the AFC’s 6th seed. Allen is still at 70% completion across 15 games with a 104.3 passer rating. And he just passed Tom Brady and Russell Wilson for the second-most wins by a QB in their first eight seasons. He’s making history all right.

But the MVP voters want narrative. Allen’s Week 16 story felt like he was coasting (with an injured right foot). James Cook’s taking pressure off his shoulders, which helps the team but hurts his MVP case. Something that may have felt even more personal to people is the fact that Allen only managed to get 6.9 fantasy points in his Week 16 outing. The fantasy managers weren’t happy.

Week 17 now brings the game of the week vs. the Philadelphia Eagles. Could a dominant showing against the reigning champs give his odds a boost? He’s questionable, and head coach Sean McDermott says he’s “Day-to-day,” but could suit up for the game. And yet, at +2800, the market seems to have moved on unless Stafford and Maye implode.

2. Drake Maye: Statement Game and New Heights

Drake Maye just wrote the greatest chapter in his history of comeback games. Down 24-13 entering the fourth quarter, Maye orchestrated two touchdown drives that sent the New England Patriots to the playoffs for the first time since 2021. His 31-of-44 night with 380 passing yards and two touchdowns shattered every previous career mark. This was his game.

The clutch moment came with 5:02 left. The ball is at the Patriots’ 11-yard line. Maye hit Mack Hollins for 20 yards, and later found Stefon Diggs on fourth-and-2 before Rhamondre Stevenson’s 21-yard score gave them the lead with 2:07 remaining. Eight-nine yards in nine plays; that’s championship DNA. 

That kind of accountability hit differently on the field. First 300-yard game, first-fourth-quarter comeback, the progression’s undeniable. he’s also the first quarterback to own seven straight road games in his first or second season since 1950. The Patriots sit 12-3, first in the AFC East and second in the conference. Next up are the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins. If the fireworks continue, this might just become much more than his first playoff run.

“Yes, I care about winning. And if that’s what it takes, then hopefully I’ll try to do whatever it takes,” Maye said, talking about his milestone. “That’s what I’m trying to do for this team, and I won’t change that. No matter if it’s 50 yards or 40 yards, whatever it does to win the game.”

At +230, Maye closed the gap significantly. His only obstacle now could be some of the toughest defenses waiting for him in the playoffs. But voters always love a fresh story. If the wins continue, Maye’s story will continue to be compelling.

1. Matthew Stafford: Faltered, but Still Favorite

Everything went right for Matthew Stafford in Week 16, right until nothing did. Stafford threw for 457 and three touchdowns against the Seattle Seahawks. Puka Nacua caught 12 for 225 yards, including a clinical no-look pass on a 3rd-and-goal. As Nacua brought that touchdown, Stafford simply walked away, knowing the score was in the bag. But then the Los Angeles Rams blew a 16-point fourth-quarter lead and lost 38-37 in overtime.

The killer play? Seattle’s overturned two-point conversion. Officials ruled Sam Darnold’s screen incomplete initially. Replay said it went backward and marked it as a fumble recovered by Zach Charbonnet in the end-zone to tie the game 30-30 when the Rams held a 2-point lead.

“I’ve never seen anything or never been a part of anything like that,” head coach Sean McVay had noted. Stafford questioned the rule himself, “I just want to know that rule.”

Despite the Week 16 collapse, Matthew Stafford’s still the favorite at -200. The 17-year veteran is finally getting his MVP recognition? That’s the narrative Vegas is craving. His 4,179 passing yards and 40 touchdowns (both top of the league) anchor the 11-4 Rams.

The trouble is, they’ve now fallen behind Seattle in the NFC West. This was a divisional game they couldn’t afford to lose, and now they sit at the 6th spot in the conference. The last two weeks offer redemption. First against the Atlanta Falcons, and then their last divisional battle against the Arizona Cardinals.

Matthew Stafford needs to get back his mid-season groove, and hope for fewer miscues from his special teams and the uncommon rules. He’s still got the clearest path to the MVP. He just can’t stumble again.

On the Cusp, Hoping for Strong Playoffs

Trevor Lawrence (+7500) has the Jacksonville Jaguars surging as the dark horse nobody saw coming. They hold the third seed in the AFC and have become impossible to ignore now. Justin Herbert (+10000) holds the fifth seed with his Los Angeles Chargers, but needs a really strong finish to the season and against two intimidating opponents. Sam Darnold (+15000) and the Seahawks secured the NFC’s top seed, but he needs something much more than game management.

For all these long shots, only playoff dominance resurrects their cases. It’s a tall order, but if there was ever a season where it could be possible, it’s this one. Matthew Stafford’s race to lose has become everyone’s race to win. It’s not about the stakes anymore; it’s about identity.