Chopping down an advertising forecast by $300 million and watching your stock shed 7% overnight is a fast way to expose where a business model is stalling. Following Tuesday’s third-quarter earnings report, Netflix lowered its 2026 ad revenue target from $3 billion to $2.7 billion, leaving shares down more than 25% year-to-date. In the face of this, acquiring more NFL games (among other sports) seems to be the need of the hour.
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The core issue here is daily screen time. In July, Nielsen data showed YouTube capturing 14.2% of domestic television viewing compared to Netflix’s 7.8%. This proved that drop-all-at-once shows are no longer enough to dominate living room screens without live programming. That engagement squeeze is exactly why Wall Street is eyeing a massive shift in strategy.
Speaking on John Ourand’s The Varsity podcast, Wolfe Research media analyst Peter Supino predicted that once Comcast completes its planned spinoff of NBCUniversal, Netflix will make a play to acquire the media giant to fix its sports deficit once and for all.
“Historically, Netflix has had no full-season sports; now they have the WWE. It’ll be fascinating to see how Netflix solves the chicken-or-egg problem of critical mass,” Supino says. “To matter to a sports fan, you need a year-round offering, not just a season. If you have just a season, people can cancel. We think it’s a very underappreciated possibility that Netflix ends up buying NBCUniversal, which is the second-biggest sports portfolio in the world.”
The foundation for Supino’s thesis was laid on June 29th, when Comcast announced plans to split into two independent public companies within a year. One entity will retain Comcast’s core broadband and cable systems, while the other will house NBCUniversal and Sky.
That newly separated entertainment company will control NBC, Peacock, Telemundo, Bravo, and Universal Pictures. What’s more, it holds a tier-one live sports portfolio that includes Sunday Night Football, the NBA, MLB, the Winter Olympics, and the FIFA World Cup.
In Supino’s view, the two companies solve each other’s primary weaknesses. Peacock provides the live news and sports foundation that Netflix lacks, while the latter brings the scripted scale and global subscriber base that Peacock has never developed.
“Peacock is almost nowhere in the scripted entertainment business,” Supino adds when pressed about the idea. “Despite NBC’s rich history in television, most people would struggle to name anything in the category of Peacock originals or big scripted dramas. A Hollywood insider said to me recently that the only reason someone would sell their show to Peacock is if they didn’t have a better option.
“Peacock finds itself a sports business, a news business, and a pay-one film deal with Universal Studios, and that’s just not enough. That’s why we’re talking about Peacock as potentially the anchor candidate in Netflix’s streaming expansion strategy, and why I think Netflix will buy NBCUniversal.”
Now, signs of a reshuffle are already visible in Netflix’s front office. The streaming giant recently replaced content head Bela Bajaria with former Disney and Fox executive Peter Rice, parted ways with film chief Dan Lin, and cut roughly 1,000 jobs – amounting to 6% of its global workforce.
Rice’s arrival could signal a break from the isolated, high-priced stunts. Netflix committed an estimated $500 million for five NFL games this season – working out to $100 million a game from its September Melbourne opener to Thanksgiving Eve – but standalone holiday specials cannot build a year-round subscriber base.
Acquiring NBCUniversal would also correct course after Netflix’s near-purchase of Warner Bros. Discovery last year. In that deal, Netflix agreed to acquire only WBD’s studios and streaming platforms while leaving live sports, news, and linear networks behind. Investors punished the stock for doubling down on scripted entertainment without closing its live-engagement gap, a misstep Netflix only escaped when Paramount swooped in to close its own merger.
While a full-scale corporate takeover remains a long-term scenario, Netflix is already exploring immediate sports distribution partnerships. Puck’s Matthew Belloni reported that Netflix is in active discussions with Fox One to pipe Sunday NFL games directly into its interface.
While a full-scale corporate takeover remains a long-term scenario, Netflix is already exploring immediate sports distribution partnerships. Puck’s Matthew Belloni reported that Netflix is in active discussions with Fox One to pipe Sunday NFL games directly into its interface.
That arrangement mirrors Netflix’s June deal with French linear network TF1, which integrated live broadcast feeds directly into the app at no extra charge. On Tuesday’s earnings call, co-CEO Greg Peers confirmed the company believes it can “replicate similar results with other partners.”
Whether through an immediate app-bundling deal with Fox or a future run at NBCUniversal post-spinoff, the message from them is clear: Netflix can no longer afford to treat live sports as an occasional experiment.