There were crazy swings in our strength of schedule rankings, with two teams in the AFC North seeing the most dramatic moves in the EssentiallySports Next 5 NFL Schedule Index.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers led the Pittsburgh Steelers to a win on the field in Week 3 and an epic move up our index heading into Week 4. Meanwhile, QB Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens suffered a brutal late-game collapse to the Detroit Lions, and thanks to their upcoming opponents’ misfortunes, the Ravens tanked down the rankings as well.

The changes in our rankings were just as manic as the endings to the Week 3 games. As we head toward the quarter pole of the season, who has the toughest and easiest five-game stretch ahead?

Next 5: An explainer of the numbers that caught your attention

“What in the world have you unleashed on the NFL world?”

That was the question we received over and over again throughout the week after we released our initial Next 5 Index, which tracks the strength of every team’s schedule over the next five games.

The sports media world has a certain herd mentality. So, when new metrics are introduced, the establishment is always resistant, while diehards, thirsty for next-level ways to talk up their team at their local sports bar, are curious but equally unsure.

Not so with our Next 5. We received over 100 DMs and emails from around the NFL universe. A lot of you hit me up saying, “Why hasn’t this been out there before? This makes so much sense.”

To be fair, there are similar metrics out there, like Pro Football Focus’ strength of schedule measure. However, there is nothing like our UberRank, which compiles the most trusted team power rankings on the Web. We use the average of all those rankings as the base to create a team ranking.

From there, it’s a lot of concocting in our NFL stats laboratory. We factor in divisional matchups being more important, national spotlight games, bye weeks, and major injuries around the league. Jumble all of it together, and we land on a Next 5 index number for each team.

You’ll want to take a deeper dive into the Week 4 NFL Power UberRankings. But here’s an overview.

Let’s start with the easiest schedules for Weeks 4 through 8.

Tier 4: The Easy-Peasy-Lemon-Squeezy Group

The upcoming schedule: Week 4 vs. New Orleans Saints, Week 5 vs. New England Patriots (SNF), Week 6 at Atlanta Falcons (MNF), Week 7 Bye, Week 8 at Panthers

You might think that getting past the lowly Miami Dolphins might make the Buffalo Bills’ schedule a bit harder. Think again.

The Patriots’ and the Falcons’ nose dives in the UberRank did QB Josh Allen’s crew no favors. We also made adjustments to how we factor in byes, so Buffalo’s Week 7 breather more deeply penalizes their Index number.

The upcoming schedule: Week 4 at Patriots, Week 5 vs. Dolphins, Week 6 vs. Cowboys, Week 7 at New York Jets, Week 8 vs. Bills

Adding the Bills into their Next 5 made the Carolina Panthers inch up a bit in their strength of schedule. But the losses by the Pats, Jets, and Cowboys make this stretch look suddenly very winnable for the resurgent Panthers.

The upcoming schedule: Week 4 at Dolphins (MNF), Week 5 vs. Cowboys, Week 6 vs. Broncos in London, Week 7 vs. Panthers, Week 8 at Bengals

Just like they fell in our Week 4 Power Rankings, the New York Jets fell in the Next 5 as well. A Monday Night Football matchup with the Dolphins gives them bonus points. But the Cincinnati Bengals’ dramatic implosion without star QB Joe Burrow turned the Week 8 matchup into a detriment to the Jets’ Next 5 ranking.

The upcoming schedule:  Week 4 vs. Carolina Panthers, Week 5 at Buffalo Bills (SNF), Week 6 at Saints, Week 7 at Titans, Week 8 vs. Browns

Three road games in their next five, along with a Sunday Night tilt in Buffalo, made this stretch harder. But the three Southern division opponents ultimately keep the Pats in the lower tier of schedule strength. Not necessarily a bad thing for QB Drake Make and a team struggling to find their rhythm.

The upcoming schedule: Week 4 vs. Bengals (MNF), Week 5 at Eagles, Week 6 vs. Jets in London, Week 7 vs. Giants, Week 8 vs. Cowboys

The Denver Broncos were our biggest faller in the rankings this week, dropping 16 spots in the Next 5 Index rankings. Why?

Four of their five upcoming opponents lost their Week 3 games. Plus, after the Week 3 loss to the Chargers, the  Cowboys replace the Bolts in the Broncos’ Next 5. A definite net negative. The stretch begins with a Monday Night spotlight hosting a reeling Cincy squad.

The upcoming schedule: Week 4 vs. Jets, Week 5 at Panthers, Week 6 vs. Chargers, Week 7 at Browns, Week 8 vs. Falcons

You’re not lying to say the Dolphins looked better in Week 3. Doesn’t make 0-3 sting any less but it likely makes head coach Mike McDaniel’s seat a little less scorching hot.

The Fins subbed out the Bills for the Falcons in their Next 5, which was a big contributor to their six-spot drop in the Index.

The upcoming schedule: Week 4 at Texans, Week 5 at Cardinals, Week 6 at Raiders, Week 7 vs. Patriots, Week 8 at Colts

It’s a good thing for a team like the Tennessee Titans to be in Tier 1. It means there are some winnable games for QB Cam Ward and his upstart offense.

Of course, starting with an 0-3 Texans team is not ideal. It’s highly unlikely that Houston will drop to 0-4 with a home loss.

Four road games in this stretch just isn’t fair for a team looking for any signs of playoff hopes to cling to.

The upcoming schedule: Week 4 at Cowboys, Week 5 BYE, Week 6 vs. Bengals, Week 7 at Arizona Cardinals, Week 8 at Steelers

This is why we’re not as high on the Green Bay Packers as other outlets. Yes, the Browns’ defense is stellar, but the Packers’ 13-10 loss in Cleveland was more about them finding ways to lose than the Browns winning.

A Swiss cheese Cowboys secondary is the perfect cure to the indigestion of that Week 3 loss. The Packers need to take advantage while their schedule remains in the lower strength tier.

Tier 3: Not the Easiest, But Easy Enough to Find Wins

The upcoming schedule: Week 4 at Giants, Week 5 vs. Commanders, Week 6 at Dolphins, Week 7 vs. Colts, Week 8 vs. Vikings (TNF)

A Sunday Nighter got added to the backend of the Chargers’ Next 5, boosting up the strength index. But the Giants’ and Dolphins’ free falls in the power rankings ultimately sent the Bolts’ overall ranking a bit lower than last week. This feels like a 3-2 stretch.

That would mean a 6-2 start and likely first place alone atop the AFC West rankings if we’re right.

The upcoming schedule: Week 4 at Bucs, Week 5 vs. Broncos, Week 6 at Giants, Week 7 at Vikings, Week 8 vs. Giants

There was a bit of a market correction in the Eagles’ Next 5 number this week. That happens when you take a top-5 ranked Rams (Week 3) off and add in the 0-3 G-Men to the backend of the stretch.

This is the peculiar aspect of this index. Teams should actually be happy to be ranked lower here. It means they have a better chance of going on a winning streak.

A road trip to Tampa Bay is the only true potential hiccup for the defending Super Bowl champs. They get past the Bucs and an 8-0 start is a near-statistical lock on paper.

The upcoming schedule: Week 4 at Las Vegas Raiders, Week 5 BYE, Week 6 at Washington Commanders, Week 7 vs. Saints, Week 8 at Ravens

It was a great win for Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears over the Cowboys in Week 3. Indeed, the kind of victory that has the fanbase feeling optimistic.

Chicago needs to keep that momentum going on the road in Las Vegas to go to the bye at 2-2. Because two playoff contenders (and current top-12 teams) await them in their next three games after the break.

The upcoming schedule: Week 4 at Lions, Week 5 vs. Vikings (London), Week 6 at Steelers, Week 7 vs. Dolphins, Week 8 at Patriots

You would think there would be more hype in Cleveland after the Browns’ big upset victory in Week 3. But Joe Flacco didn’t light up the stat sheet but a W keeps the vet behind center as the team heads to Detroit. One bad half and we could see Dillon Gabriel get an extended chance to earn the starting job.

This feels like a 2-3 stretch at best for the Browns.

The upcoming schedule: Week 4 vs. Bears, Week 5 at Colts, Week 6 vs. Titans, Week 7 at Chiefs, Week 8 BYE

Hope is eroding in Las Vegas as the AFC West is already getting away from head coach Pete Carroll. Not a great week to be welcoming a Bears team that showed spunk in Week 3.

If the Raiders are what they’ve shown in their 1-2 start, they’re likely headed to 1-3 mark in their next four and an all-hope-is-lost 2-5 record heading into their bye.

The upcoming schedule: Week 4 at Rams, Week 5 vs. Raiders, Week 6 vs. Cardinals, Week 7 at Chargers, Week 8 vs. Titans

Everything is coming up roses for QB Daniel Jones and the Colts. A six-spot drop in the Next 5 thanks to adding the Titans on to the back side of the stretch is the good news.

Road games against both Los Angeles teams could be the bad news and a midnight reckoning for the NFL’s Cinderella of 2025.

The upcoming schedule: Week 4 at Bills, Week 5 vs. Giants, Week 6 vs. Patriots, Week 7 at Bears, Week 8 vs. Bucs

Everything is coming up capital L for the Saints to start 2025, and a rise up the Next 5 is the last thing New Orleans fans need to see sitting at 0-3.

But a stretch bookended by a road game at Buffalo and a divisional showdown against the Bucs is more depressing affirmation that this season could already be over for head coach Kellen Moore‘s crew.

The upcoming schedule: Week 4 vs. Packers (SNF), Week 5 at Jets, Week 6 at Panthers, Week 7 vs. Commanders, Week 8 at Broncos

A showdown with castoff Micah Parson isn’t what the Cowboys need right now, but it’s what they’re getting. Let’s say that’s a loss. So back-to-back road games against the Jets and Panthers could get the ‘Boys back to .500.

Their reward for a little win streak is the Commanders and Broncos to end the stretch. This is not a string to find any meaningful momentum.

Tier 2: The Witching Hour Grouping

We say that in homage to host Scott Hanson of NFL Redzone. Because if you’re in this group, a winning start can turn into a five-game losing streak real quick. But it’s also the spot where struggling teams could earn exponential respect with Ws.

The upcoming schedule: Week 4 at Chiefs, Week 5 vs. Texans, Week 6 vs. Rams, Week 7 BYE, Week 8 vs. Bears

We start with one of the biggest “fallers” in our Next 5. The Ravens could be the best 1-3 team in the history of the NFL after Week 4. They could be the most optimistic team ever to head into a bye at 2-4.

Baltimore got a bit of schedule relief if you belief our Next 5 ranking. But you can only stay in the playoff race for so long without stringing wins together. That has to begin in Kansas City.

The upcoming schedule: Week 4 vs. Browns, Week 5 at Bengals, Week 6 at Chiefs, Week 7 vs. Bucs, Week 8 BYE

Jason from Livonia wrote to me and said, “So if I understand your Next 5 correctly, the Lions should drop big time in the rankings this week by replacing Baltimore with a bye in their next 5, yes?”

You are correct, sir. The Lions drop to the middle of the Next 5 with two penciled-in wins against the AFC North up next. But that’s why pencils have erasers, isn’t it? You only need to erase two letters from “LOCK” to replace it with “LOSER.”

The upcoming schedule: Week 4 at Cardinals, Week 5 vs. Bucs, Week 6 at Jaguars, Week 7 vs. Texans, Week 8 BYE

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold is doing it again. He’s being efficient, he’s minimizing mistakes, putting Jaxon Smith-Njibga and the receiving corps in the best spots to succeed.

The Seahawks have an opportunity to assert dominance in the NFC West Thursday night. Then the tour through the NFC and AFC South awaits. It’s a gauntlet. Seattle took care of business against a lowly Saints squad. This five-game stretch is a step above in what it will show us about this team’s promise.

The upcoming schedule: Week 4 vs. Seahawks, Week 5 vs. Titans, Week 6 at Colts, Week 7 vs. Packers, Week 8 BYE

OK, Cardinals fans, you let a game get away that you should win against the 49ers. What are you going to do about it?

Quarterback Kyler Murray and wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. are not clicking like we’d all hoped they would be by now. That chemistry has to really shine now without running back James Conner.

Trey Benson was talked up all offseason and was a fantasy sleeper who must now be a giant in this four-game stretch ahead of the bye.

The upcoming schedule: Week 4 vs. Vikings (Dublin), Week 5 BYE, Week 6 vs. Cleveland Browns, Week 7 at Cincinnati Bengals (MNF), Week 8 vs. Packers (SNF)

The wins have been ugly, but the Steelers are 2-1 and all over the national spotlight in this five-week window.

The defense is getting healthier. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers isn’t fully connecting with his offense yet, and you’re 2-1. This is a good thing, people.

The team is going to be a spectacle as NFL ambassadors in Dublin. I expect Mike Tomlin to have his players focused on sending a strong statement in the Vikings game.

The Steelers made the biggest jump up the Next 5 because they shed the lowly Pats and added the top-10 Packers to their schedule mix. Even as the strength of schedule increases, this needs to be a 3-1 run.

The upcoming schedule: Week 4 vs. Titans, Week 5 at Ravens, Week 6 BYE, Week 7 at Seahawks (MNF), Week 8 vs. 49ers

What is this Houston Texans team? Why is the offense so putrid? Are they what they have shown they are?

I hate throwing that many questions out there, but that’s Houston right now. No one expected this 0-3 start. A loss to the Titans in Week 4 could land DeMeco Ryans on the hot seat. Because from there, this could turn into a 0-7 beginning for a team that was seen as being on the come up.

The upcoming schedule: Week 4 vs. Jaguars, Week 5 at Rams (TNF), Week 6 at Bucs, Week 7 vs. Falcons (SNF), Week 8 at Texans

The 49ers are likely getting QB Brock Purdy back, which kind of stinks because Mac Jones has been great thus far. I hope it leads to a second chance at a starting gig this year or next. And it would have been fun to see him get a “revenge” start against the Jags (not a lot to avenge though … the real one would be against the Pats).

Truth though, they need Purdy back to get a flow going with the offense and stabilize the team vibes with Joey Bosa out. This stretch is vital to come out of at least 5-3.

The upcoming schedule: Week 4 at Falcons, Week 5 at Chargers, Week 6 vs. Bears (MNF), Week 7 at Cowboys, Week 8 at Chiefs (MNF)

Are you already getting the feeling that the Commanders’ storyline just isn’t the same this year?

The injuries are piling up. Even if Jayden Daniels is back this week … when I hear the words “core muscle specialist” with Terry McLaurin, I’m nervous.

Tier 1: The Toughest of the Toughest Roads Ahead

The upcoming schedule: Week 4 at Broncos (MNF), Week 5 vs. Lions, Week 6 at Packers, Week 7 vs. Steelers (TNF), Week 8 vs. Jets

My “not an overreaction” take of the week (and a 360 from last week): If the Bengals don’t trade for a veteran QB not named Jake Browning, they will be punting on 2025 after this five-game stretch.

The upcoming schedule: Week 4 vs. Commanders, Week 5 BYE, Week 6 vs. Bills, Week 7 at 49ers, Week 8 vs. Dolphins

The schedule is hardest for the teams we have the most questions about. I’m always rooting for the best results for players, so I’m hoping this is the week that Michael Penix Jr. erases the doubts on his starter status. If not, it’s going to be a fascinating two weeks of bye week scuttlebutt.

This ship must be righted ahead of the Bills game.

The upcoming schedule: Week 4 vs. Steelers in Dublin, Week 5 vs. Browns in London, Week 6 BYE, Week 7 vs. Eagles, Week 8 at Chargers

Quarterback Carson Wentz looked like he’s not giving up the starter gig anytime soon. Two overseas wins would create a hysteria heading into the bye that might be too much for head coach Kevin O’Connell to ignore once J.J. McCarthy is healthy.

Especially with two Super Bowl contenders on tap after the bye.

The upcoming schedule: Week 4 vs. Eagles, Week 5 at Seahawks, Week 6 vs. 49ers, Week 7 at Lions, Week 8 at Saints

The Cardiac Bucs need to stop that and win games emphatically, and that needs to begin this week, hosting Philly. This four-game string is season-defining. Yes, 3-0 looks nice on them. But is this team a legit Super Bowl contender?

They all look the same in the ledger. But a couple of convincing wins to start this task would surely help us all decide.

The upcoming schedule: Week 4 vs. Ravens, Week 5 at Jaguars (MNF), Week 6 vs. Lions (SNF), Week 7 vs. Raiders, Week 8  vs. Commanders (MNF)

You got your first win, but it was far from a statement game – unless that statement is, “We just barely beat the mediocre teams.”

The NFL schedule makers are going to have to explain how the Bills schedule is such a cakewalk and the Chiefs have week after week of trench battles against contenders.

The upcoming schedule: Week 4 vs. Colts, Week 5 vs. 49ers (TNF), Week 6 at Ravens, Week 7 at Jaguars (London), Week 8 BYE

The Rams let a win slip away against Philly, and with it, opened the door to a lot of doubts about the long-term prospects of this squad. They can chill out those haters this week by beating down the Colts. If they ever went 4-0 over the next four, they’re NFC favorites.

Anything less than 2-2 is going to put this team closer to being broken up come the trade deadline.

The upcoming schedule: Week 4 vs. Chargers, Week 5 at Saints, Week 6 vs. Eagles (TNF), Week 7 at Broncos, Week 8 at Eagles

We’re on Brian Daboll firing watch here. Starting Jaxson Dart against the Chargers is pure desperation. The look on the coach’s face after the OT interception against Dallas, you knew that so-called vintage performance meant nothing to him.

He needs a win, right now. A win against the Chargers, followed up by a smackdown in NOLA, could change the narrative of this season. I’m rooting for the rookie QB, but I just don’t see the first part happening.

The upcoming schedule: Week 4 at 49ers, Week 5 vs. Chiefs (MNF), Week 6 vs. Seahawks, Week 7 vs. Rams in London, Week 8 BYE

The Jags did enough to win against a Texans team seemingly hell bent on giving them the game. Can they actually beat a proven contender?

They get four cracks at achieving, one right after the next here. Please, Trevor Lawrence, just give us something to believe in here. Until he owns a game from kickoff to final buzzer, he’s losing more of us OG believers by the week.