Nineteen years. That’s how long Mike Tomlin coached the Pittsburgh Steelers without a single losing season. New head coach Mike McCarthy inherits that streak for the 2026 season, and the NFL’s own preview desk has just handed him a number that almost reads like a dare.

The league’s official YouTube channel released its ‘Pittsburgh Steelers 2026 Season Preview & Predictions’ this week, and buried inside the prediction of another winning season was just 8 or 9 wins.

“Even without Tomlin, the prognosticators have Pittsburgh as a team capable of finishing over .500,” the video noted. “Their over-under sits at 8 and a half. Their opponent’s win total projections for 2026 has them in the middle of the pack when it comes to their strength of schedule.”

What the Steelers managed to do with veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers last season is a big part of this analysis. AR8 threw for 207 yards a game with a career-low pace, and Pittsburgh finished 25th in total yards per game with a middling third-down offense. Now, these are last year’s numbers with a different coaching system, but the schedule ahead of them for this season backs the flat projection.

Pittsburgh’s 2026 opponents combined for a .495 winning percentage – the 19th-toughest slate in the league by that measure. But a brutal post-bye stretch – against the Bengals, Eagles, Broncos, Texans, Jaguars, and the Ravens – will prove to be the steepest hill to climb. DraftKings and ESPN’s Mike Clay also independently landed on 8.5 wins earlier this offseason, which tells you the market sees a roster that plays well, but doesn’t display fireworks.

However, Steeler Nation present on the video’s comment board have rejected the numbers outright. Many are calling for 11 to 13 wins under Mike McCarthy, but that also ignores something ESPN’s Brooke Pryor already flagged back in May.

“The Steelers won’t win a home game until October. New Falcons coach Kevin Stefanski has plenty of experience against the Steelers from his time in Cleveland, and the Bengals offense will continue to be a handful – especially with a healthy Joe Burrow,” Pryor wrote. “It could be a bit of a wait before new coach Mike McCarthy wins in his hometown.”

But there’s definitely a lot of upside to this team as well. The league’s own analysis highlights DK Metcalf’s 850 receiving yards, which led the franchise, proving him to be a steady workhorse for Rodgers. Michael Pittman Jr’s addition sparks hope. Star tight end Pat Freiermuth is expected to get more opportunities this season after missing out last year.

Now, an 8.5 projection is definitely not a great look for Mike McCarthy, specifically. He is taking over a team that has had a consistent winning record, and if in his first year that goes away, the fanbase might make up their mind. However, the NFL’s analysis takes into account a team with a new coaching system, being led by a quarterback who’s about to be 43 this December. But if everything clicks when September arrives, as the league’s analysis also predicts in the video, “a monster year of .800-plus coming, or bust city.” Analysts are just splitting the difference.