The NFL MVP conversation heading into Week 14 isn’t so much a race anymore. Now, it looks like a two-man duel at the top, with Drake Maye perched confidently in the lead, and Matthew Stafford scrambling to regain his grip. Beyond these two are massive gaps in the odds. Jordan Love is surging to join the summit, Dak Prescott’s rallying Dallas, and the reigning MVP is hanging in there.

As for the rest, it’s going to take a miracle and then some to break through. Here’s Essentially Sports’ Week 14 NFL MVP Ladder, a look at the Top 5 who have the best chances right now, and those hoping something clicks.

5. Josh Allen: Bulldozing the Blueprint

Somehow, even Josh Allen’s quiet games leave their mark on the Buffalo Bills. Against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Allen posted his lowest yardage per attempt (5.3), but he still carved out a win. One passing touchdown, one rushing score, and a new NFL record: 76 career rushing touchdowns by a quarterback, surpassing Cam Newton. Those are legacy numbers, and Allen had even more to give.

Week 13 showed Allen’s transformation and poise. He didn’t need 300+ yards, just ruthless execution. With him leading the fray, the Bills didn’t just control the clock, they owned it for 41.9 minutes, leaving Pittsburgh with mere 18.01 minutes of possession time. Even when the aerial attack was muted, the whole Bills squad was boosted by Allen’s physicality.

If Buffalo can rattle off a late win streak and Allen keeps stacking the run game, his odds could rise from +2500 back to prominence. But for now, his win-one-lose-one streak has chipped off his confidence a bit.

4. Jordan Love: Cooking with Confidence

The Green Bay Packers are riding a three-game win streak, and Jordan Love is the spark behind it. Week 12 left the team wishing for offensive aggression, and Love delivered just that. Week 13 saw him dominate the Detroit Lions with four touchdown passes, 234 yards, and a flair for attacking man coverage under pressure.

Love’s confidence is contagious, the kind that has receivers waving for deep shots on third-and-long, and keeps play-callers dialing up the aggression. The offense isn’t playing scared anymore. Love’s pivot from tentative caretaker to gunslinger in just one week feels like the start of something more. His recent Thanksgiving performance even saw him earn the NFC offensive player of the week. 

Love still has the odds against him (+1900), but if he remains consistent with this efficiency and flair throughout the final stretch of the season, he could easily move up from underrated to a real threat in the MVP race.

3. Dak Prescott: Orchestrating the Comeback

We’ve said this before. The only thing holding back Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys is their defense. But that was before the bye week and the trade deadline. With the return of injured starters and the addition of Quinnen Williams, that defense suddenly ranks 2nd in Rush YPG allowed since Week 11 and beyond. Now, Prescott can finally have the spotlight back.

In one of the greatest Thanksgiving matchups, Prescott torched the Kansas City Chiefs with 320 yards and two touchdowns. Dallas is finding its stride again, and wideout George Pickens and kicker Brandon Aubrey have proven themselves to be franchise cornerstones. And Dak has been brilliant in crunch time, stacking game-winning drives and keeping the Cowboys in playoff contention week after week.

Prescott still leads the league in QBR (75.3), which is unsurprising because seven of his last nine games feature at least two touchdown passes. His odds (+1500), while far apart, are still the closest to the top two right now. If the Cowboys can finish strong and Prescott keeps delivering in high-tension moments, he’s back in the MVP conversation for real.

2. Matthew Stafford: One Bad Day, Still Elite?

Matthew Stafford entered Week 13 with an NFL record: 28 consecutive touchdown passes without an interception this season. But against the Carolina Panthers, that record was finally shattered. Stafford threw two picks, lost a fumble, and watched his MVP lead slip down from the clear favorite that day. But his stat line wasn’t devoid of positives.

Against the Panthers, Stafford managed to throw for 243 yards and two touchdowns, completing 18-of-28 passes. But three turnovers against the struggling defense is the kind of swing that reshapes an MVP narrative overnight.

Stafford still leads the league with 32 passing touchdowns and ranks among the top passers in yardage, driving the Los Angeles Rams firmly into the playoff picture. Was Week 13 just an unlucky outing, or the start of a December snowstorm? If Stafford rebounds against playoff contenders in the final weeks, his efficiency and production give him every chance to reclaim the top spot. But another stumble, and the odds fall far beyond +125.

1. Drake Maye: Swagger, Command, and Separation

It doesn’t get any more ‘MVP moment’ than what Drake Maye delivered for the New England Patriots. 24-of-31, 282 yards, two touchdowns, and a flawless execution in a dominant 33-15 win over the New York Giants. The Patriots jumped to a 30-7 halftime stranglehold, Maye connecting perfectly with Kayshon Boutte and Kyle Williams.

Week 13 marked the fourth consecutive game in which Maye has surpassed 270 passing yards. Even in year 2, he’s showing the veteran poise to compete with the best. The Patriots haven’t lost since Week 3, and sit atop the AFC at 11-2, largely thanks to Maye’s command.

Maye also leads the league in passing yardage and is top five in touchdowns, all while taking care of the ball with only six picks on the year. If the Patriots ride this momentum to the AFC’s top seed, the MVP title is his to lose. His confidence is elevating the entire roster, and he’s the only player whose MVP odds sit at -125 right now. The crowd must be sensing the arrival of the league’s next superstar.

On the Cusp: Chasing Miracles

Caleb Williams, Sam Darnold, and Patrick Mahomes remain on the outskirts at the moment. The rise of Caleb Williams and Drake Maye this season has led them to be the first quarterbacks under 25 to hold the top spot in the AFC and NFC right now. But Williams would need a perfect stretch with the Chicago Bears for his odds to rise from +6500.

Sam Darnold also has the same odds as Williams. But Darnold hasn’t posted any scores in two of his last three matchups. He needs a signature, headline-dominating performance with the Seattle Seahawks, and he needs the current favorites to falter.

As for Patrick Mahomes, he has been trying to play his best all season, but he has lost 6 games with a one-score margin. With the Chiefs’ self-inflicted damage, Mahomes now sits with shocking +9000 odds. He has to win every single one of the last 5 matchups to get a narrow window back in the race. 

With just five weeks left in the regular season, the MVP hierarchy seems to have been cemented at last. But the infinite beauty and chaos of the NFL is that everything can still change in the coming weeks. For now, it’s Drake Maye for the win, Matthew Stafford hot in pursuit, and Love, Prescott, and Allen refusing to leave quietly. The only certainty is that we’re hitting the home stretch now.