We are officially five weeks into the 2025 NFL season, and there have been some…unexpected results. The Indianapolis Colts are 4-1 and atop the AFC, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are looking like one of the best teams in the NFC, and the Kansas City Chiefs have fallen to under .500 with a loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday night.

Are the Colts actually Super Bowl contenders? Can the Buccaneers keep this up all year long? Today, I’m going to go through all the top teams in the NFL and label them as contenders or pretenders.

Indianapolis Colts: Contenders

It’s crazy to say, but I think the Indianapolis Colts are actually contenders in the AFC. Shane Steichen has done an amazing job building an offense around Daniel Jones. The former New York Giants quarterback is having a career year (has already thrown for 1290 yards), largely due to his offensive line and running game. Jonathan Taylor leads the league in rushing yards (480) and touchdowns (6), and Jones has taken advantage.

The Colts’ offense may be averaging the second-most points per game (32.6) in the league, but their defense deserves some credit, too. They have given up 89 points this season, the seventh-fewest in the league, and have a +74 point differential, which is 12 points higher than the Detroit Lions in second.

I know they haven’t played the toughest schedule, but the Colts’ 34-point win over the Las Vegas Raiders was their biggest in 12 years. They did lose to the Rams, but they beat the Denver Broncos, who just beat the Philadelphia Eagles, in a thriller in Week 2.

They might not win the Super Bowl, but if they keep playing how they have through the first five weeks, an AFC Championship appearance isn’t out of the question.

Buffalo Bills: Contenders

Did the Buffalo Bills just lose to the New England Patriots at home on Sunday night? Yes. Does that mean they’re not contenders to win the Super Bowl? No.

As long as the Bills have Josh Allen at quarterback and semi-decent defense, they’re going to be a threat to win it all. Allen is so dynamic that, even without a true WR1, he can lead the Bills to 30.6 points per game. Buffalo’s 153 points this season trail only the Lions and Colts, and defensively, they’re about average in terms of points allowed.

Allen isn’t playing at an MVP level right now, and the Bills are still 4-1. Once he really gets rolling—and he will get rolling—they’re going to be hard to beat.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Pretenders

The Pittsburgh Steelers had an early bye week and are sitting at 3-1 through their first four games, but they’re yet to notch a super impressive win. They beat the New York Jets in Week 1 before losing to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 2. They’ve rallied off back-to-back wins over the Patriots and Minnesota Vikings, and while neither of those teams is a pushover, they’re not that impressive of wins.

The game against New England was tied at 14-14 late in the 4th quarter, and there beat Minnesota by a margin of just 3 points.

The Steelers won’t really be tested until they host the Green Bay Packers in Week 8. That’s when we’ll really know how good this team is. I just don’t think their offense is good enough to keep up with the Bills, Colts, Chiefs, or others in the AFC. Maybe it can get there by the end of the year, but for now, they’re pretenders.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Contenders

The Jacksonville Jaguars proved they are legitimate AFC contenders on Monday night. They took it to the Kansas City Chiefs for 60 minutes and did not back down. The offense looked great, and so does Trevor Lawrence.

The Chiefs’ Chris Jones might call the QB’s game-winning drive in the fourth quarter a “fluke play,” but Lawrence already had 8 4th quarter/OT game-winning drives to his name when he entered the game.

I’m not sure if they actually have a shot at the Super Bowl just yet. I want to see a bit more first. But early signs are that head coach Liam Coen is doing things right in Jacksonville, so don’t be surprised if they make a run in the playoffs this year.

Denver Broncos: Pretenders

I like Bo Nix and Sean Payton as much as the next guy, but they’re still a little bit away from really contending for a Super Bowl.

Their defense has lived up to the hype. They’ve given up just 84 points this year and are exceptional at getting after the quarterback, but their offense is still a few pieces away.

Bo Nix hasn’t played great this year, though I do think the win over the Philadelphia Eagles could be the turning point for him, and I just don’t think he has the weapons. His top receiver is Courtland Sutton, who is no slouch, but they could use a dominant X receiver. Their run game also needs some work. JK Dobbins and RJ Harvey have been fine, but fine isn’t good enough to win a Super Bowl.

Their Super Bowl window is opening, but it’s not quite there yet. They should make the playoffs, but I don’t think they have a shot of making it past the Divisional Round as of today.

Kansas City Chiefs: Contenders

I don’t care that the Chiefs’ only two wins have come against the Baltimore Ravens and the New York Giants. I don’t care that they have three losses. As long as Patrick Mahomes is under center, the Chiefs are contenders for the Super Bowl.

I don’t even think Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league. He might not even be top three. But when it gets cold and the lights shine the brightest, there’s something about him that just knows how to win tough games in January.

I’d almost go as far as to say the Chiefs are still the team to beat in the AFC. Nobody has proven they can take them down in the playoffs, and until then, they’re my pick to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

Philadelphia Eagles: Contenders

Moving on to the NFC. Despite their loss to the Broncos this week, the Eagles are still contenders.

Philly still has a ton of things to figure out offensively. Their passing attack has struggled to the point that both of their star receivers have voiced their frustrations to the media. And Saquon Barkley, who rushed for 2,005 yards a year ago, is yet to have a 100+ yard game on the ground.

And yet, they’re 4-1 and sitting atop the NFC.

The Eagles’ roster is loaded at every single position. Even when they’re not playing well, they’re winning football games. They are still contenders, even if they haven’t fully looked the part yet.

Detroit Lions: Contenders

After their Week 1 loss to the Packers, it looked like the Lions may have taken a big step back after losing both of their coordinators to head coaching positions. All they’ve done since then to dispel that notion is win four straight games while scoring 34.8 points per game.

Yes, the Lions are still very good. In fact, I think they’re the best team in the NFC and possibly the best team in the NFL. Jared Goff is commanding the offense, while Jahmyr Gibbs (325 yards) and David Montgomery (310 yards) are heading one of the best rushing attacks in the league. Even with an average defense, the Lions are true contenders.

San Francisco 49ers: Contenders

The San Francisco 49ers are one of the most up-and-down teams in the NFL. After going 12-5 and making the Super Bowl in 2023, the 49ers went 6-11 last year. This year, it appears they’re back in contention, and I think they have a real shot at making the Super Bowl.

This team has proven it’s quarterback-proof. Brock Purdy went down, and Mac Jones has played incredible football. So much so that he might be the team’s best option moving forward. Even though they were without some of their top offensive weapons on Thursday night, they still managed to take down the Los Angeles Rams on the road.

Defensively, the 49ers are giving up under 20 points per game. If they can do that all year, their offense is good enough to keep winning games. I don’t think they’re quite on the Eagles or Lions level, but they’re in the tier right below them.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Pretenders

As much as I love the Baker Mayfield redemption arc, I don’t think the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are true contenders. Their defense has been exposed on multiple occasions, and while their offense has been able to keep up, at some point they’re going to run into a stout defense that causes them some trouble. Plus, all four of their wins have been by three points or less, and that’s not sustainable.

Are the Bucs a very good team? No doubt about it. But are they Super Bowl contenders? Unfortunately, I don’t think so.

Green Bay Packers: Contenders

The Green Bay Packers are always going to be one of the most hyped teams in the country. No matter if they’re bad, average or great, they’re going to get a ton of preseason hype. This year, the hype is 100 percent warranted.

The Packers have one of the best defenses in football. They had one bad game against a really good Dallas Cowboys offense, but outside of that, have yet to give up more than 18 points in a game. They held the Lions to 13 in Week 1, and are the only team that has challenged them all year.

Offensively, there are still some things to iron out, but overall, they’re as good as they’ve been in years. Jordan Love is playing at an MVP level, but if they really want to contend, they need to figure out how to improve their rushing attack, which is averaging 3.8 yards per carry.

I think there’s a clear top four teams in the NFC: the Packers, Lions, Eagles and 49ers. The Lions and Eagles are in their own tier, but if either of them are even slightly off their game, the Packers and 49ers are good enough to pick up the scraps.

It’s hard to say four teams in the same conference are contenders, but the NFC really is that open this year.

Dallas Cowboys: Pretenders

The Dallas Cowboys have been feisty this season. They opened the season with a four-point loss to the Eagles before beating the New York Giants in an overtime thriller in Week 2. They lost pretty badly to the Chicago Bears, but bounced back with a 40-40 tie against the Packers. Finally, this week they beat down the New York Jets in a game that wasn’t as close as the score indicated.

Their offense is great. It’s one of the best in the league. But their defense is awful, and it’s holding them back. The Cowboys are giving up 30.8 points per game, which ranks 29th in the league, and there’s no indication they’ll get any better any time soon.

If they had an average defense, they’d likely be a contender. But for now, they’re pretenders.