Thwarted expectations, surprising upsets, and comebacks; Week 5 had a little bit of everything. And as we head to Week 6 now, the first impacts of October have left the MVP leaderboard shaking. The biggest names are jockeying for position, but it’s still too soon for anyone to be running away with it yet. From veterans staking claims to rising stars challenging the order, Week 5 blew the MVP race wide open. Here’s the latest EssentiallySports MVP ladder, with a quick look at players lurking just outside.

5. Patrick Mahomes

Last week, Patrick Mahomes held the 4th slot on our MVP ladder. But no one expected a 31-28 loss at the hands of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Sure, a lot of that had to do with the penalties the Kansas City Chiefs faced (13 flags, with 10 of them in the second half). But Jaguars linebacker Devin Lloyd hauled in a 99-yard touchdown as Mahomes’ Pick-6, and that wasn’t pretty. But Mahomes’ magic has still kept him in the race.

Five weeks into the season, Mahomes ranks 6th in passing yards (1,257) and 4th in QBR (75.1). His 8:2 TD:INT ratio doesn’t quite do justice to the severity of those picks, but he has married the run game with the passing game beautifully in Week 5, rushing for 60 yards and a touchdown. The O-Line is also finding synergy around him, making this the only game so far where Mahomes wasn’t sacked.

The odds on Mahomes have tightened for now. But with a key weapon like Xavier Worthy back and Rashee Rice’s return on the horizon, too. Mahomes could push back higher on the leaderboard. When he’s on, he’s almost impossible to stop. For now, it’s just a matter of finding that old spark.

4. Dak Prescott

Last week, Dak Prescott was on the cusp of our MVP talk. Not anymore. Dak’s locked in at the right time. If you need a reason to believe that, just watch him running down the field after handing the ball to Javonte Williams. Dak’s got the wheels, he’s showing an elite level pre/post-snap reads, and even without his most trusted target on the field, there are fireworks.

Let’s talk stats for a bit. Prescott now ranks second in passing yards (1,356), holds the 3rd spot (tied) with 10 passing touchdowns, and is third in QBR (76.5). If there was anything else that could make his case this week, it was his season-best passer rating of 127.4. With that old injury in the rearview, Prescott’s looking like he means business every single week. If the team can keep up with his elite plays, he’s only going to climb higher on the leaderboard. 

3. Jared Goff

The Detroit Lions look sharper than ever, and with a 4-game win streak under his belt, Jared Goff makes the third spot on our MVP rankings. Week 5’s 258 yards and three touchdowns against the Cincinnati Bengals have reinforced his solid start. While he did take 4 sacks, he still managed to go 19 for 23 and carved out a 153 passer rating. But that’s just the numbers from Week 5. Goff has been more surgical than ever before. And with no shortage of targets, the mismatches will probably continue to bring the Lions more victories.

Overall, Goff now leads the league with 12 passing touchdowns. And with just two picks holding him down, Detroit’s offense has soared to new heights with Goff’s calm decision-making and growing chemistry with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs. Detroit is currently leading the league in points per game with its average now at 34.8. Goff’s steady start now paints him as a prime MVP candidate riding a surge few saw coming.

2. Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield is smashing expectations with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ 4-1 ride. With 10 touchdowns, just one interception, and 1,283 passing yards, Mayfield leads the league with four game-winning drives in the fourth quarter. His Week 5 masterclass against the Seattle Seahawks has reasserted him as a clutch performer. Mayfield showed extreme precision with a 29-for-33 pass game for 379 yards and two touchdowns. And then there’s the matter of Emeka Egbuka’s explosions…

Mayfield’s rise is as much about his attitude as his stats. The swagger, combined with Tampa’s grind-it-out wins on the road, has lit a fire in the Bucs. When Mike Evans and Bucky Irving return, Mayfield’s numbers could level up and maybe even carry the team deep into January.

1. Josh Allen

Not undefeated anymore, but still the one to beat. Josh Allen remains the favorite atop the MVP ladder, carrying the Buffalo Bills with an unrelenting blend of arm strength and agility. He’s piled up nine touchdown passes, three rushing touchdowns, and 1,429 total yards through five games, guiding Buffalo to a 4-1 record. Despite the team’s recent stumble against the New England Patriots (those turnovers really cost them), Allen’s impact is unmistakable, as he combines pinpoint passes with bruising runs.

Granted, the Bills have not been the best when it comes to the wide receiver room, with tight end Dalton Kincaid leading the team in receiving yards (287). But Allen’s connection with running back James Cook has helped the Bills log 153 points so far (just behind the Lions and the Colts). That’s enough to keep him as the frontrunner as the season moves into mid-October. The only hitch? It’s not 100% guaranteed anymore.

Players on the cusp

Daniel Jones, Sam Darnold, Trevor Lawrence, Matthew Stafford, and Drake Maye lurk just outside the top five, ready to stake their claim in the coming weeks. Jones’ command has the Indianapolis Colts racking up wins above expectations. Darnold’s sturdy leadership makes it look like the Seahawks are ready to take flight this season. Meanwhile, Lawrence’s late-game heroics against Mahomes are pushing the Jaguars into the conversation.

Stafford was making a strong case for himself last week. But his 26-23 loss against the San Francisco 49ers has hurt his stock a little now. But he leads the league with 1,503 passing yards right now and holds second place behind Goff with 11 passing touchdowns. We might just see him back on the board soon enough.

Maye, for one, has made some absolutely beautiful plays with Stefon Diggs. His progression in New England and the fact that he defeated the last remaining undefeated team in the NFL in Week 5, has drawn eyes. Each of these players needs a string of dominant performances to leap into conversation, but their posture signals the MVP race won’t just be about the usual suspects.

Every game until now has shifted the narrative. As we head into Week 6, the MVP chase has no clear runaway favorite. Whether Josh Allen can maintain his lead, or if Mahomes, Prescott, Goff, or Mayfield shift into another gear, is going to be the story we look out for.

Stay locked in. The next week promises highlight moments, madness, and, of course, more MVP-worthy magic.